23 June 2010 17:15 [Source: ICIS news]
TORONTO (ICIS news)--Chemical, automotive and other exports are leading Germany out of the recession, two economics institutes said on Wednesday in updating their 2010 growth forecasts for Europe's largest economy.
Germany, because of its high dependency on exports, had been hard hit by the recession, said Munich-based Ifo institute. However, now as the global economy was strengthening, Germany was benefiting over-proportionally, the institute said.
Ifo noted strong export demand from markets in Asia, in particular China. Meanwhile, Germany's exports to the US were also improving because of the weakening of the euro against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, it said.
However, demand from eurozone countries - the largest export market for Germany's chemical industry - would remain ⌠restrained because of debt problems and fiscal tightening in southern Europe and the UK, the institute said.
The institute forecast Germany's export growth at 10.8% for 2010, after a 14.5% decline in 2009 from 2008.
Overall, Germany's GDP would grow by 2.1% this year, Ifo predicted - higher than the 1.9% growth the country's central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast in its most recent outlook. Last year, Germany's GDP fell 4.9% from 2008.
Also on Wednesday, Essen-based economic research group RWI said it boosted its 2010 GDP forecast for Germany to 1.9%, from previously 1.4%, largely because of stronger export markets. RWI projected Germany's exports growth at 11.4% this year.
However, both Ifo and RWI said German exports would slow in 2011, largely because of government budget cuts in Europe.
According to Germany's chemical producers group VCI, the country's chemical production will increase 8.5% this year, after a 10% decline in 2009 from 2008.