MOSCOW (MRC) -- US crude oil production, rejuvenated by the advent of "fracking" shale formations, will approach historic highs by 2019, said Upstreamonline, citing the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The US oil and gas industry has been a bright spot in recent years as the economy struggles to recover from a financial crisis and growth stagnation.
The energy renaissance has prompted some large US oil companies to sell foreign assets and come home to focus on shale, leading to a upsurge of infrastructure projects. Cheap gas, meanwhile, has reinvigorated the refining and energy-heavy industrial sectors by lowering costs.
The EIA said production in the world's largest oil consumer will rise by 800,000 barrels per day every year until 2016, when it will total 9.5 million bpd. By 2019 it will peak at 9.61 million bpd, nearly matching a 1970 record of 9.64 million bpd. In 2019, domestic production of crude oil will account for 63% of total supplies, a significant increase from 2011 when it barely covered 38% of the country's needs.
The government agency's two-million-barrel-per-day upgrade from last year's report shows how production from tightly packed shale rock has consistently confounded analysts, as higher prices and rapidly evolving technology fuel growth.
The EIA increased its forecast for shale oil production and pushed back the year of its peak. It now sees production peaking in 2021, from 2020, at 4.8 million bpd, not 2.8 million bpd.
Members of OPEC, including Saudi Arabia, are being forced to confront a trend they initially greeted with skepticism. The global oil cartel said in November it may lose 8% percent of its market share to shale in the next five years.
The EIA on Monday said OPEC's world market share would fall to below 40% in the near term but then recover after 2016. Last year it had expected OPEC's share to remain at 40-45% in the coming years.
Natural gas output will increase steadily, growing 56% between 2012 and 2040.Natural gas exports will continue to rise. The country will become a net natural gas exporter two years sooner than the EIA had previously judged, in 2018, and a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2016.
MRC