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BP predicts slowdown in global energy demand

January 20/2014

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Global energy demand continues to grow but that growth is slowing and is mainly driven by emerging economies, led by China and India, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing

The fourth annual edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2035 includes the oil companys view of the most likely developments in global energy markets further 2035, based on up-to-date analysis. The outlook reveals that global energy consumption is expected to rise by 41% from 2012 to 2035?compared to 55% over the past 23 years (52% over the past 20 years) and 30% over the past 10 years.

Also, 95% of that demand growth is expected to come from the emerging economies. Energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia as a group is expected to grow very slowly and to decline in the later years of the forecast period.

Shares of the major fossil fuels are converging with oil, natural gas and coal; each is expected to make up around 27% of the total energy mix by 2035. The remaining shares will come from nuclear, hydroelectricity and renewables. Among the fossil fuels, natural gas is growing fastest hydrocarbon; it is increasingly being used as a cleaner alternative to coal for power generation as well as in other sectors.

Oil is expected to have slowest growth trend of the major fuels to 2035, with demand growing at an average of just 0.8%/yr. Nonetheless, the demand for oil and other liquid fuels will be 19 million bpd higher in 2035 than 2012. All of the net oil demand growth is expected to come from outside the OECD nations. Oil demand growth from China, India and the Middle East will account for almost all of net demand growth. Growth in the supply of oil and other liquids (including biofuels) to 2035 is expected to come primarily from the Americas and Middle East.

Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing of the fossil fuels, with demand rising at an average of 1.9%/yr. Non-OECD countries are expected to generate 78% of demand growth. Industry and power generation account for the largest increments of new demand. LNG exports are expected to grow more than twice as fast as gas consumption, at an average of 3.9%/yr, and accounting for 26% of the growth in global gas supply to 2035.

Shale gas supplies are expected to meet 46% of the growth in gas demand and account for 21% of world gas and 68% of US gas production by 2035. North American shale gas production growth is expected to slow after 2020 and production from other regions to increase, but in 2035, North America is still expected to account for 71% of world shale gas production.

BP is one of the world's leading international oil and gas companies, providing its customers with fuel for transportation, energy for heat and light, retail services and petrochemicals products for everyday items. As MRC wrote before, the board of Rosneft has approved deals to sell refined products to BP worth more than USD6 billion. This comes on top of a prior agreement to sell oil worth USD5.3 billion to BP.
Author:Anna Larionova
Tags:gaz, oil, gazopererabotka, neftehimiya, Rosneft, BP.
Category:General News
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