Korea junk risks rising for SK Innovation as oil slumps

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Oil’s plunge into a bear market and a petroleum-product glut is dragging South Korea’s largest refiner toward junk status and raising industry borrowing costs, said Bloomberg.

There’s a 0.98 percent chance SK Innovation Co. will fail to pay its debts in the coming year, up from 0.13 percent on June 30, according to Bloomberg’s default-risk model that takes into account a company’s finances and stock moves. That suggests it merits a non-investment debt rating. The premium on GS Caltex Corp.’s 2019 dollar bonds jumped 36 basis points to a record this quarter, compared with a 7 basis point average rise for Korean dollar debt, JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes show.

Moody’s Investors Service cut SK Innovation’s rating to Baa3, the lowest investment-grade on Dec. 3, while Standard & Poor’s changed the outlook on GS Caltex and S-Oil Corp. (010950) to negative from stable Dec. 1. That may raise borrowing costs for the refiners, which face 2 trillion won (USD1.8 billion) in repayments next year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Korean oil refiners are in a more difficult position than their Chinese peers because they lack a major domestic market, S&P said. Exports accounted for 60 percent of their production, according to Korea Investors Service. South Korea’s November exports of petroleum products fell 21.6 percent from a year earlier, the most among commodity groups, according to the trade ministry. That compares with a 1.9 percent drop for total exports.

Korean oil refiners will probably maintain their investment-grade rating status at least for 2015 if oil prices don’t weaken further because earnings are expected to be weak, but stable, in 2015, said Wee Lee Cheng, a Singapore-based credit analyst at ING Investment Management Asia Pacific Ltd.

Overcapacity in the petrochemical industry will stretch into next year, however refining margins are likely to be stable in 2015, barring any further material declines in oil, he said.

Petrochemical margins, used to offset losses on oil refining, are under pressure as well, said Park Jin Young, a credit analyst at Woori Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul.

As MRC wrote before, SK Innovation Co. will end a battery-pack joint venture with German partner Continental AG due to slow growth in demand for electric cars. SK Innovation and Continental, Europe's second-largest car parts maker, established a joint venture in January 2013 to develop and produce lithium-ion battery systems for vehicles. Although the companies agreed to invest 270 million euros (US$336 million) over five years, they are ending the partnership early due to weak market demand for battery-powered vehicles amid limited infrastructure and falling oil prices.
MRC

LyondellBasell names Bhavesh V. "Bob" Patel as new CEO

MOSCOW (MRC) -- LyondellBasell, the world’s biggest maker of polypropylene plastic, has announced that the Supervisory Board has appointed Bhavesh V. "Bob" Patel chief executive officer, effective January 12, 2015. Patel succeeds James L. Gallogly, who previously announced his plan to retire, as per the company's press release.

"After a rigorous selection process, we chose Bob Patel based on his proven leadership, his outstanding track record, and his numerous contributions to the success of LyondellBasell," said Supervisory Board Chairman Robert G. Gwin. "The Board is grateful to Jim Gallogly for his many accomplishments and his outstanding service to the company and its stakeholders. We are very pleased to announce Bob's appointment as Jim's successor and we have full confidence that he will continue to lead the Company to new heights," Gwin said.

Patel has served as executive vice president, Olefins and Polyolefins (O&P) - Europe, Asia & International and Technology since October 2013. After serving in several positions of increasing responsibility at Chevron Corporation and Chevron Phillips Chemical Company, Patel joined LyondellBasell in March 2010 as senior vice president, O&P - Americas, where he successfully restructured the business to take advantage of the shale gas expansion in the US. In November 2010, he was named senior vice president, O&P - EAI and Technology. In that role, he again successfully restructured the business and improved profitability.

In recognition of his contributions, Patel was promoted to executive vice president in October 2013 and given additional responsibility for the company's manufacturing operations outside of the Americas. As executive vice president, Patel has been responsible for the company's outperformance of its peers in Europe and Asia by streamlining operations, shifting to advantaged feedstocks and operating plants more reliably.

In April of 2014, Patel was appointed by shareholders to the company's Management Board and will serve as the Chairman of the Management Board when he assumes the role of CEO in January.

As MRC wrote before, in November 2014, LyondellBasell Industries said "tight" markets for its products may stall the narrower margins that it expects will ultimately come from lower oil prices.

LyondellBasell Industries NV is a manufacturing company. The company produces chemicals, fuels, and polymers used for packaging, clean fuels, durable textiles, medical applications, construction materials, and automotive parts. LyondellBasell Industries operates globally and is headquartered in the Netherlands. LyondellBasell is also a leading licensor of polypropylene and polyethylene technologies. The more than 250 polyolefin process licenses granted by LyondellBasell are twice that of any other polyolefin technology licensor.
MRC

Rosneft expected to make USD7.6 bln loan repayment

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Russian oil giant Rosneft is expected to repay a USD7.6 billion portion of a bridge loan that matures on Sunday, reported Reuters with reference to the statment of bankers close to the deal.

The settlement day for the repayment is Monday Dec. 22, the first business day after the loan matures, two of the bankers said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the loan market is private.

The loan is part of a larger USD12.7 billion, two-year bridge loan signed in December 2012 that backed Rosneft's acquisition of oil company TNK-BP.

The loan providers are confident the repayment will happen, despite Russia facing a financial crisis prompted by Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict and low oil prices.

"This loan is too systemically important, Rosneft will do all in its power to repay it, the knock on effect if it doesn't would be huge," one of the bankers said.

Neverthless, creditors have been seeking assurances from Rosneft that they will be repaid.

"There is confidence that the repayment will come, but people are still anxious and tetchy," said a second banker. "We have been ringing and seeking reassurance from Rosneft and there will be a feeling of relief once it is repaid."

Rosneft declined to comment if the repayment would be made on Monday.

When asked if the repayment would be made, a Rosneft spokesperson said in an emailed statement: "Rosneft complies with its credit commitments in accordance with the previously designated schedule for 2014. Rosneft demonstrates steady financial results regardless of high volatility in the global economy. The company is capable of paying off its taken loans unassisted."

The bridge loan providers were BNP Paribas, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Barclays Bank, Citi, Credit Agricole CIB, ING Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, JP Morgan, Mizuho Corporate Bank, Natixis, Societe Generale and UniCredit, according to Thomson Reuters LPC data.

A second loan repayment of around USD6.9 billion is due from Rosneft in February on maturity. That was part of a USD11.9 billion, two-year loan that also backed the TNK-BP acquisition.

As MRC wrote before, last November, Rosneft and ExxonMobil signed documents establishing a joint venture to implement a pilot project for tight oil reserves development in Western Siberia as part of the implementation of the agreement on strategic cooperation. Rosneft will hold 51% interest and ExxonMobil will hold 49% interest in this project.

Rosneft became Russia's largest publicly traded oil company in March 2013 after the USD55 billion takeover of TNK-BP, which was Russia’s third-largest oil producer at the time.
MRC

HDPE prices increased in Russia in mid December

MOSCOW (MRC) - The first half of December was quite calm in the Russian market of high density polyethylene (HDPE). HDPE prices slightly increased in the second half of the month, and this trend is likely to continue next year, according to ICIS-MRC Price Report.

Buying activity in the Russian HDPE market has traditionally recovered in the early December, as many converters replenished their inventories. Some companies increased their HDPE purchases on the eve of the long New Year holidays.

Despite the increase in demand, the Russian HDPE producers rolled over their November prices for December. But in the second half of December PE prices began growing under the pressure of the next wave of rouble devaluation.

Earlier this week, the foreign exchange rate significantly fluctuated. Central Bank of the Russia tried to stabilise the dollar, including raising the key rate by almost 7%. Some commercial banks have temporarily suspended lending.

All of these factors put pressure on the Russian PE prices. Given the new rate of the dollar exports of HDPE became more profitable, and the producers expressed the need for price increases, citing the rising production costs (some producers use dollar in the price forming).

Negotiations on January contract prices began this week. Some market participants reported an increase in contract HDPE prices of Rb4,000/tonne.

The spot market also reacted to what was happening, but more moderate. Prices for film HDPE this week grew to Rb83,000 - 84,500/tonne FCA, including VAT, while a week ago the deals were done on average down Rb500/tonne.

Converters, in their turn, said in the current situation it is problematic to accept any price increase. Banks refused to credit, while the rate on loans already reached 27% per annum.
MRC

PE production in Belarus decreased by 1.6% in January - November 2014

MOSCOW (MRC) - Total production of low density polyethylene (LDPE) in Belarus decreased to 124,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of the year up 1.6% year on year, according to MRC DataScope report.

According to the National Statistics Committee of Belarus, a local polyethylene producer - Polymir increased production of polyethylene to 12,000 tonnes in November, compared with 7,600 tonnes in October. Such a low production volumes in October resulted from the shutdown for the turnaround.

Total LDPE production in Belarus were about 124,000 tonnes in January - November 2014 compared with 126,000 tonnes in the same time a year earlier.

Polymir was founded in 1968 in Novopolotsk. The company used technologies of the largest foreign companies from Great Britain, Japan, Germany, Italy (Courtaulds, Asahi Chemical Co. Ltd, Kanematsu Gosho, SNIA BPD et al.), as well as the development of scientific research institutes and design institutes of the CIS countries. The producer's annual LDPE production capacity is 130,000 tonnes.
MRC