EIA: Global oil markets expected to tighten in Q3 2017, then loosen through 2018

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Forecast world production of crude oil and other liquids in 2017 and 2018 was revised slightly downward in the June edition of EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which was issued after the May 25 announcement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of an extension to production cuts that were originally set to end this month, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

OPEC’s crude oil production target will remain at 32.5 MMbpd through the end of the first quarter of 2018. Given the extended production cuts, EIA now forecasts OPEC members’ crude oil production to average 32.3 MMbpd in 2017 and 32.8 MMbpd in 2018, down 0.2 MMbpd and 0.4 MMbpd, respectively, from the previous STEO. Total OPEC liquid fuels production is also expected to be lower than previously forecast. However, continuing production growth in many non-OPEC countries is expected to moderate the pace of global liquid fuels inventory draws in 2017. EIA expects a small inventory build in 2018.

Inventory draws expected in the second and third quarters of 2017 suggest the possibility of some increases in crude oil prices over the coming months. However, because US tight oil production is relatively responsive to changes in oil prices compared with offshore production, and even given an estimated six-month lag between a change in oil prices and realized production, higher crude oil prices in mid-2017 have the potential to raise US supply in 2018.

The largest global inventory increase in the forecast occurs in the second quarter of 2018, when Brazilian and OPEC production are expected to increase by 570,000 bpd and 220,000 bpd, respectively. Supply growth in 2018 could contribute to downward pressure in oil prices as early as late 2017. EIA’s STEO forecast assumes OPEC cuts will be extended beyond March 2018 but that non-compliance will begin to grow late in 2017 and increase in the second half of 2018. Although this forecast reflects the assumption of increased non-compliance with a second production-cut extension in 2018, any extension provides some support for crude oil prices, even if only temporarily, which would partially offset downward price pressure from growing inventories.

The June STEO forecasts a 2017 average spot price for Brent crude oil of USD53/bbl (b), with prices increasing to USD56/bbl in 2018. Average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices are forecast to be USD2/bbl lower than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018. As always, all oil price forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty. For example, EIA’s forecast for the average WTI price in September 2017 is USD51/bbl, but analysis of options trading suggests market expectations range from USD39/bbl to $-USD64/bbl at the 95% confidence interval.

EIA expects US crude oil production to increase through 2018, averaging 9.3 MMbpd in 2017 and 10.0 MMbpd in 2018. The 2018 STEO forecast exceeds the previous record US production level of 9.6 MMbpd set in 1970. Growth in US production of crude oil and hydrocarbon gas liquids has been the largest contributor to the 820,000 bpd of non-OPEC liquids supply growth from January through May 2017. Continued increases in drilling activity in US shale basins, particularly in Texas, support production increases throughout the forecast.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Tekni-Plex Inc, the US-based provider of innovative packaging materials, medical compounds and precision-crafted medical tubing solutions, will invest USD15 million to set up a manufacturing facility in Suzhou, near Shanghai (China), said Business-standard.

It represents the single largest recent investment by Tekni-Plex and reflects the growing needs of the Asia-Pacific pharmaceutical and medical device market. Production for some product lines has already begun.

Initially, the facility will manufacture products for Tekni-Plex’s Natvar, Colorite and Action Technology business units. The facility will feature three Class 100K cleanrooms to accommodate medical-grade tubing and components production plus one Class 10K cleanroom that will produce Natvar’s pharma-grade tubing.

The facility also will produce Natvar’s recently-announced silicone extrusion tubing for catheters, feeding tubes, drug delivery and peristaltic pump applications, as well as microextrusion tubing that targets a wide variety of demanding neurovascular interventional therapies and surgical applications. The facility will also manufacture Colorite custom compounds for medical device applications, and Action Technology’s dip tubes used in a wide variety of food/beverage, pharmaceutical, personal care, industrial and household pump applications.

"Tekni-Plex’s investment in our new China facility is another step in our continuing commitment to support our customers with robust global supply. Pharmaceutical, medical device and other manufacturers want access to exactly the same components and materials regardless of where in the world their manufacturing facility is located. It is our goal to meet those objectives," said Paul Young, chief executive officer, Tekni-Plex.

The company is in the process of phasing out production at its existing facility in Suzhou that it has operated since 2005.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The 2017 edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy shows global energy markets continuing to undergo long-term changes as they also adapt to nearer-term price challenges, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Data published in the Review—the 66th annual edition—demonstrate the long-term transitions underway in the markets, with a shift to slower growth in global energy demand, demand moving strongly towards the fast-growing developing economies of Asia, and a marked shift towards lower carbon fuels as renewable energy continues to grow strongly and coal use falls.

At the same time, energy markets are adjusting effectively to nearer-term challenges, with the oil market in particular adjusting in 2016 to the oversupply that has dominated the market in recent years.

Introducing the Review, Bob Dudley, BP Group Chief Executive, said: “Global energy markets are in transition. The longer-term trends we can see in this data are changing the patterns of demand and the mix of supply as the world works to meet the challenge of supplying the energy it needs while also reducing carbon emissions. At the same time markets are responding to shorter-run run factors, most notably the oversupply that has weighed on oil prices for the past three years.

"To understand these forces at work and their implications for the future, we need timely, reliable data. This is why we produce the Statistical Review – to provide the accurate global information that will contribute to discussion, debate and informed decision-making around the world."

In 2016 global energy demand was weak for the third consecutive year, growing by just 1%, around half the average growth rate of the past decade. Once again, almost all this growth came from fast-growing developing economies, with China and India together accounting for half of all growth.

The year’s low prices drove demand for oil higher by 1.6% while growth in production was limited to only 0.5%. As a result, the oil market returned broadly back into balance by mid-year, but prices continued to be depressed by the large overhang of built-up inventories. Natural gas production was also adversely affected by low prices, growing by only 0.3%. US gas output fell in 2016, the first reduction since the advent of the shale revolution in the mid-2000s.

Renewables were again the fastest growing of all energy sources, rising by 12%. Although providing still only 4% of total primary energy, the growth in renewables represented almost a third of the total growth in energy demand in 2016. In contrast, use of coal—the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels—fell steeply for a second year, down by 1.7%, primarily due to falling demand from both the US and China.

The combination of weak energy demand growth and the shifting fuel mix meant that global carbon emissions are estimated to have grown by only 0.1%—making 2016 the third consecutive year of flat or falling emissions. This marks the lowest three-year average for emissions growth since 1981–1983.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) has announced the "successful and flawless" commissioning of the last crystallization train (Train 3) at its paraxylene facility in Jamnagar, India, as per Apic-online.

The plant, built with BP's state-of-the-art crystalliza-tion technology, more than doubles RIL's paraxylene capacity to 4.2-million-t/y, making RIL the "world's second largest" producer of paraxylene with about 11% of global production.

RIL commissioned the second phase of the complex this past April, which comprised a second crystallization train, trans-alkylation and aromatic extraction units.

As MRC wrote previously, RIL shut its cracker, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) plants located at Hazira for a maintenance turnaround on March 23, 2017 . Both the plants remained off-stream for around 25 days. Located at Hazira near Surat in Gujarat, the cracker has a production capacity of 1.1 mmt/year and the downstream PP plant has a production capacity of 600,000 mt/year. The PE plant has a capacity of 450,000 mt/year.

Reliance Industries is one of the world's largest producers of polymers. Thus, the company produces among others polypropylene, polyethylene and polyvinyl chloride.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- CB&I and SK Advanced Co. Ltd. are celebrating the record production rates and outstanding operation of a propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant in Seoul, South Korea, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The plant uses CB&I’s CATOFIN technology and Clariant’s dehydrogenation catalyst for the nameplate production of 600,000 mtpy of propylene. CB&I announced the license and basic engineering contract for this plant in March 2013.

"We congratulate SKA on achieving more than 110 percent of the nameplate production in the first year of operation," said Brian Muldoon, CB&I’s Senior Vice President of Petrochemicals. "Our proven CATOFIN propane dehydrogenation technology offers the customer both highest reliability and highest yield of any commercially available dehydrogenation technologies." SKA routinely produces over 110 percent nameplate capacity while maintaining more than a 98% on stream factor.

On March 8, 2017, a small ceremony was held at the SKA headquarters to commemorate the first anniversary of the successful operation of the PDH project. In its first year, the plant has experienced record production rates as well as record on-stream time.

As MRC informed before, in mid-May 2016, SK Advanced Co. began trial production of propylene at its PDH plant in Ulsan, South Korea. The new 600,000-t/y facility was subject to performance testing. Commercial operations were then expected to begin in the second quarter of 2016.
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