Ending the LNG Drought

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Investment in new projects to produce liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell sharply in 2016 and 2017: the industry-sanctioned under 10 million tons of annual capacity in two years, an 80 percent reduction relative to 2011–2015, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

This slowdown raises many questions. Is the industry investing enough to meet future demand, and if not, will that lead prices to spike later? Governments are asking whether they should offer concessions to support projects; and if so, how far should they go, especially given pressures from constituents who were promised jobs, investment, and revenue from projects that are now stalled. And at a geopolitical level, strategists are asking what places will win and what places will lose—and with what consequences? What might the world’s energy map look like in 10 or 20 years.

To answer these questions, we must first understand why investment has slowed down. In part, this is just a cycle: periods of high investment are often followed by periods of low investment. This cycle is amplified by a mismatch between prices and costs—prices have fallen by much more than costs, and so, many projects in the development queue are not profitable enough to be sanctioned. Some projects have even been cancelled outright, a rarity in LNG where projects usually just languish. This is how bad the market has been in recent years.

But this is not just a cyclical correction. There are three broad forces that further hinder investment. The first is price uncertainty. Historically, gas prices in much of the world have been linked to oil. The uncertainty in oil prices has thus meant uncertainty for gas prices. More importantly, there is a slow move away from oil-indexed prices: in 2005, 63 percent of the gas that crossed a border was priced in relation to oil; in 2016, it was 49 percent. This move is welcome—gas should have its own price. But this is a planning nightmare: how to forecast a price with less history and more unknowns? In a world with tight margins, even modest price uncertainty can be a big obstacle.

The second uncertainty is demand. This is partly demand writ large: how much gas will the world use, especially given competition from coal and renewables? But demand is also uncertain at the company level since many markets are opening up. In Europe, incumbents lost significant market share due to liberalization. No Asian market is that far advanced in its liberalization schedule or quite as far-reaching in its liberalization ambitions. But companies that buy LNG from a new project are placing 25-year bets, which is long enough to make any planner think twice.

Third, the market is becoming more liquid (even though, from 2012 to 2016, the spot and short-term market for LNG did not grow). Companies are becoming more comfortable relying on the short-term market, and there is a growing market for reselling gas on a long-term basis. All this means that buyers are not just thinking whether they might need gas in the future; they are also wondering whether they should commit to buy that gas today or wait to buy it later from the secondary market.

There is, in other words, a cyclical correction, as the industry digests high levels of investment during 2011–2015. But this cyclical correction is amplified by an imbalance between prices and costs and by deep uncertainty about prices, demand, and future liquidity. When might this drought end? We do not know, but three concurrent forces will lead investment to restart.
MRC

Dongming selects LyondellBasell’s PP technology for Chinese plant

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Dongming Hengchang Petrochemical has selected Spheripol polypropylene (PP) technology from LyondellBasell for implementation at a plant in Heze City, Shandong Province, China, as per Chemicals-technology.

The plant will be capable of producing 200,000mt of PP per year. Grades of PP produced using the Spheripol process are often used to make film for the safe storage of food and plastic pipes for the delivery of drinking water, as well as wastewater removal and sterile syringes in the healthcare sector.

LyondellBasell global manufacturing, refining, projects and technology executive vice-president Dan Coombs said: “The Spheripol process is recognised globally as the benchmark in polypropylene process technology.

"It provides our customers with an elegant and economical method to efficiently and reliably produce a wide range of premium-quality polypropylene grades. "

The new technology includes numerous process improvements that are intended to further increase operational efficiency. It also supports the production of a number of homopolymers, random copolymers, heterophasic and specialty impact copolymers, in addition to terpolymers.

PP products produced by Spheripol are thin-walled and commonly used for light and rigid packaging items, packaging containers that preserve food and polypropylene pipes for the safe transportation of water.

Dongming Hengchang Petrochemical Company Strategic Planning and Engineering general manager Zhang Juchao said: "LyondellBasell is the global leader in polyolefins technology and we value the company‘s long-term commitment to its clients, continuously investing in its technologies."

LyondellBasell’s Spheripol PP process technology has more than 22 million tonnes (Mt) of licensed capacity.
MRC

Oil demand growth to shift to petrochemicals & away from motor fuels

MOSCOW (MRC) - Strong global demand for oil and gas will shift in the next five years towards petrochemicals and away from motor fuels gasoline and diesel, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, as per Reuters.

Demand for products ranging from fertilisers to plastics and beauty products will drive roughly a quarter of the expected oil demand growth to 2023, the IEA said in its five-year outlook. The shift represents a major challenge to the oil industry, as many of the petrochemicals will be produced using gas, cutting out refineries. At the same time, growth in gasoline and diesel usage will be held back by fuel efficiency improvements and declining consumption in the developed world, the IEA said.

World oil demand is expected to rise by 6.9 MMbpd to 2023, it said, with a quarter of this growth, or 1.7 MMbpd, coming from demand for petrochemical feedstocks ethane and naphtha. "Global economic growth is lifting more people into the middle class in developing countries and higher incomes mean sharply rising demand for consumer goods and services," the IEA said.

"A large group of chemicals derived from oil and natural gas are crucial to the manufacture of many products that satisfy this rising demand," it added. Naphtha is made by oil refineries processing crude, but other petrochemical feedstocks - ethane or liquefied petroleumgas (LPG) - are processed outside traditional oil refineries.

"Ethane, liquefied petroleum gases and naphtha, pose a bigger threat to the refiners' market share than electric vehicles and gas-powered transportation combined," the IEA said, estimating refiners would see just 4.8 MMbpd of the demand growth to 2023, missing out on 30 percent of it.

The boom in U.S. shale oil has dramatically expanded the availability of ethane, and a string of new projects on the U.S. Gulf Coast is underway to process it. In total, the world is expected to add 1.4 MMbpd in new petrochemical-producing steam crackers to 2023, the IEA said.

Demand for ethane will expand at the fastest pace in the next five years, rising by 885 Mbpd followed by naphtha with growth of 495 Mbpd and LPG with growth of 40 Mbpd, it forecast. Jet fuel, supported by growing demand for air travel, will grow by 1.2 percent to 2023, the IEA added.

But it said demand for gasoline and diesel would rise by just 0.7 percent each, with expansion slowed by fuel efficiency standards that now cost two-thirds of the world's top car markets. More than 80 percent of global car sales are now in markets covered by efficiency standards, including China, India the United States and Europe. The IEA said this "will impact strongly on future oil demand."

Partially as a result, the IEA warned that refinery additions totalling 7.7 million bpd would outstrip growth in demand for refined products by 2023 by some 3 million bpd.
MRC

Chinese firm building USD15B refinery complex offshore

MOSCOW (MRC) -- On a tiny island off Brunei's northern tip on the South China Sea, thousands of Chinese workers are building a refinery and petrochemical complex, along with a bridge connecting it to the capital, Bandar Seri Begawan, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

When completed, the first phase of the USD3.4 billion complex on Muara Besar island, run by China's Hengyi Group, will be Brunei's largest-ever foreign investment project, and comes at a time when the oil-dependent country needs it the most.

Brunei’s oil and gas reserves are expected to run out within two decades. As production falls, oil firms won't be investing much into existing facilities, further hampering output, oil analysts say. As a result, the country’s oil revenues, which provide virtually all of Brunei’s government spending, are in steady decline.

With youth unemployment rising, Brunei's ruler, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, is trying to quickly reform the economy and diversify its sources of income, while fighting graft and cracking down on dissent.

Brunei's changing fortunes have been reflected in its financial industry. HSBC pulled out of Brunei last year, while Citibank exited in 2014 after 41 years. Bank of China, meanwhile, opened its first branch in the sultanate in December 2016.

The Muara Besar project is promising over 10,000 jobs, at least half of which would go to fresh graduates, media reports in Brunei said. But claims that thousands of Chinese workers have been shipped in to build the complex has angered some local residents.

Hengyi Industries, the local company building the refinery, did not respond to requests for comment. The company, founded in 2011 and based in Bandar Seri Begawan, expects to complete the first phase of the refinery and petrochemical complex on Muara Besar by the end of the year, according to its website.

A USD12 billion second phase will expand the refinery capacity to 281,150 barrels per day, and build units to produce 1.5 MMtpy of ethylene and 2 MMtpy of paraxylene, the company said last month.

Total Chinese investment in Brunei is now estimated at USD4.1 billion, according to the American Enterprise Institute's China Global investment tracker.

That will almost certainly rise as China ramps its "Belt and Road" initiative. Sometimes called the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road, it envisages linking China with Southeast Asia, Africa and Eurasia through a complex network of ports, roads, railways and industrial parks.

"Brunei is an important country along the 21st century Maritime Silk Road," China's Ambassador to Brunei Yang Jian said at the opening ceremony in February 2017 for a joint venture, running Brunei's largest container terminal.
MRC

BASF and Farsoon roll-out PA6 material for 3D printing in China

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Global chemical company BASF has teamed-up with technology company Farsoon to roll-out the new PA6 material solution for the 3D printing industry in China, as per Chemicals-technology.

The BASF Ultrasint PA6 X043 Black will enable manufacturers to produce components with optimised shapes and lesser weight that can also endure harsh environment conditions. Farsoon founder and chairman Dr Xu Xiao Shu said: "This new breakthrough in 3D printing materials makes direct manufacturing possible, which further accelerates the industrialisation of 3D printing in China.

"In the future, Farsoon will continue to work closely with BASF to help customers enhance their equipment and material performance, while reducing production costs. We aim to offer customers a true additive manufacturing solution."

"BASF is dedicated to developing high-performance 3D printing materials such as the Ultrasint PA6 series."
BASF noted that the new material will generate new possibilities for various industries such as aerospace, automotive and consumer.

Along with Farsoon’s new continuous additive manufacturing solutions (CAMS), including HT1001P, HT252P, ST252P, and HT403P, BASF’s Ultrasint PA6 X043 Black can help customers to develop performance components and increase productivity.

BASF 3D-Printing Asia-Pacific senior business development manager Michael Tang said: “BASF is dedicated to developing high-performance 3D printing materials like the Ultrasint PA6 series.

"We provide an open platform by working with our partners, such as Farsoon, to develop competitive 3D printing material solutions to realise future customer needs for mass production."

At TCT Asia 2018 in Shanghai, China, BASF will showcase its new line of Ultrasint PA6 X043 Black material, along with the polymer powder bed fusion, made with the Farsoon’s CAMS technology.
MRC