Chinese oil demand rebounds as independent refiners restock

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Chinese demand for crude oil is rebounding as independent refiners push to buy before prices climb further from low levels hit late last year, restocking with supplies that will arrive in March and April, reported Reuters with reference to trade sources.

That appetite from such refiners, often known as ‘teapots’, has driven up spot premiums for oil from Africa, Europe, Russia and Oman, the sources said, with prices for some grades hitting multi-month highs.

That comes after teapots slowed crude purchases for delivery in the first two months of 2019 as demand for the fuel they churn out typically fades over the Lunar New Year holidays, which this year fall in early February.

"It’s as if someone lit a match and the market’s caught fire," said one of the sources. All sources declined to be named as they were not authorized to speak to media.

Global benchmark Brent oil prices had fallen more than 30 percent to just above USD50 a barrel by the end of 2018, but prompt May crude futures have rebounded to above USD60 a barrel this month.

Teapots tend to time their crude purchases based on oil price movements, and often when one buys others will follow, the sources said.

Spot premiums for crude grades popular with Chinese buyers are between 50 cents and more than USD1 a barrel higher than price quotes seen at the start of the month, they said.

For example, Oman’s spot premium almost doubled last week to USD1 a barrel from the start of the month, while offers of Russian ESPO crude for delivery to China in March have risen by 50 cents to about USD3.20 a barrel to May ICE Brent futures, according to the sources and Reuters data.

However, demand is expected to cool by the end of this week as would-be buyers leave the office for the week-long Lunar New Year break, the sources said.

China’s refined product consumption could only see 0.5-percent growth in 2019 from last year as gasoline demand slows with an expected 5-percent drop in passenger vehicle sales, while diesel use will continue to contract on weaker industrial output, Lin Chen, Nomura’s head of greater China energy global markets research, said in a note.

Still, the world’s biggest oil importer could see crude imports rising to 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, up more than 4 percent from the previous year, Chen said.

China’s refining throughput is set to hit another all-time high of 12.7 million bpd in 2019, about 600,000 bpd more than last year, driven by new refineries Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical, he added.

Competition from these new plants means that other independent refiners are unlikely to increase their throughput this year, Chen said.

Also, oil imports in the key refining region of Shandong in the east of the country are unlikely to rise until Dongjiakou city completes a port expansion by year-end, he said.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Toyo Engineering Corporation has been awarded a contract to build a 650,000 t/y ethylene and polyethylene (PE) plant located in Ust-Kut, Irkutsk region, Russian Federation by Irkutsk Polymer Plant, a subsidiary of Irkutsk Oil Company (INK), as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

INK has been interested in reduction of the environmental burden by shifting to rational utilization of the associated petroleum gas instead of flaring it off, that enables off-gas to be utilized for production of the value-added petrochemical products. In this aspect, TOYO has cooperated with INK since 2011 providing advisory, planning and support work for modernizing INK’s industrial facilities under the General Engineering Service Agreement (GESA), which resulted in realization of the project.

In September 2018 an Agreement for Cooperation regarding construction of the gas chemical complex was signed, in the honorary presence of the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, during the 4th Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok.

As MRC wrote before, in January 2019, TOYO was awarded a contract of Acrylic Acid Production plant with capacity of 100,000 tons/year in Cilegon, Banten, on the western tip of Java, Indonesia from PT. Nippon Shokubai Indonesia (NSI), Indonesian subsidiary of Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd. (NSCL).

TOYO has completed more than 40 projects in the former Soviet Union and Russian Federation since 1960’s. TOYO also focuses on the expansion of the business opportunities for ethylene and polyethylene projects as its core business, and this award marks TOYO’s outstanding track record as the 47th ethylene plant project worldwide as well as the 26th polyethylene plant. TOYO’s long experience in Russia, established performance and reliability in worldwide ethylene projects led to this award. TOYO will continue contributing to the development of the petrochemical industry in Russia as well as to further development of Japan-Russia relation and cooperation.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- TechnipFMC been awarded a large(1) reimbursable contract by ExxonMobil for detailed engineering, procurement, and construction for the recently announced crude expansion project in Beaumont, Texas, USA, said thr company.

The awarded scope covers the addition of four new units – atmospheric pipe still, kerosene hydrotreater, diesel hydrotreater and benzene recovery at ExxonMobil’s Refinery.

The new units of this expansion project will be integrated into the existing facilities at the refinery. The expansion will optimize the facility by giving ExxonMobil the flexibility to run lighter crudes.

Nello Uccelletti, President of TechnipFMC’s Onshore/Offshore business, stated: “We are pleased to have been awarded this contract by our long-term client, ExxonMobil. We look forward to bringing our global project execution capabilities, extensive U.S. Gulf Coast execution experience and leadership in the refining sector to this significant refinery expansion project for ExxonMobil.”

For TechnipFMC, a “large” contract ranges between USD500 million and USD1 billion.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asian refining margins for jet fuel climbed on Friday to their highest in over two weeks, while cash differentials for the aviation fuel firmed to their smallest discounts in three weeks, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Refining margins, also known as cracks, for jet fuel rose to USD14.76 a barrel over Dubai crude in a fourth consecutive session of gains, hitting their strongest levels since Jan. 15. They were at USD14.24 a barrel on Thursday.

Jet cracks, which also determine the profitability of kerosene, are currently about 7 percent lower than at this time in 2018 as a warmer-than-normal winter has kept a lid on heating demand for kerosene this year.

Following two weeks of declines, jet margins have risen about 10 percent this week in their biggest weekly gain since July last year.

Cash differentials for jet fuel narrowed to a discount of USD1.36 a barrel to Singapore quotes on Friday, compared with Thursday's discount of USD1.42 a barrel.

The draw in Singapore middle distillate stocks this week has boosted sentiment further in the market, which is expecting supplies to tighten over the next few weeks, trade sources said.

Singapore onshore middle-distillate stocks declined about 5 percent to 11.8 million barrels in the week to Wednesday, Enterprise Singapore data showed on Thursday.

A likely surge in air passenger travel during the Chinese New Year holidays is expected to boost aviation fuel demand, while some regional refineries scheduled for spring maintenance over the next couple of months would curb availability of barrels, market watchers said.

Chinese New Year, known as Lunar New Year in many parts of Asia, is on Feb. 5-6 this year.

Meanwhile, refining cracks for gasoil with 10ppm sulphur content climbed to USD14.67 a barrel over Dubai crude during Asian trading hours, from USD13.89 a barrel on Thursday.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Shares of ExxonMobil have tumbled 12.5% since it last reported earnings results on November 2. Though shares were initially buoyed by the stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, investors soon turned their focus to the spiraling crude oil prices, which fell almost 40% in the October to December period, said the company.

Oil prices, however, partially recovered in the start of this year when Russia and OPEC countries slashed its production, as promised, from January 1. While US production continues to be at record highs, there is some respite as Saudi Arabia is also reportedly planning to peg its exports.

A slew of energy companies are scheduled to report results in the coming days – Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) and ConocoPhillips (COP) will report on Thursday, January 31, while Exxon and Chevron (CVX) will post results on Friday. Earnings and expectations of these companies would set the tone for the energy industry in 2019.

Analysts expect Exxon to report earnings of USD1.05 per share on revenues of $74.18 billion. During the same quarter last year, the energy giant reported earnings of USD1.97 per share on revenues of USD66.5 billion.

Investors may expect to hear a lot about headwinds in both the upstream and downstream operations during the post-earnings conference call. Also, expect commentary on the economic slump in China and the impact of the trade tensions in the oil industry. In December, the Asian country reportedly witnessed a fall in both exports and imports.

Another key area to look out for is the commentary on the impact of the recently imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). Though Exxon has already scrapped its operations in Venezuela, the embargo could dent its refining activities.
MRC