US expected to lead global oil supply growth to 2024

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The United States is expected to drive global oil supply growth over the next five years, adding another 4 million barrels per day to the country’s already booming output, according to the International Energy Agency, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

U.S. oil output will climb to 19.6 MMbpd by 2024 from 15.5 million last year, the Paris-based agency said. Gross crude exports will double, leading to greater competition especially in the Asian market. The outlook points to pressure on demand for crude from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as the United States and other rivals expand supplies. However, in a boost for the producers, the IEA doesn’t see a peak in global demand yet.

"The United States is increasingly leading the expansion in global oil supplies, with significant growth also seen among other non-OPEC producers, including Brazil, Norway and new producer Guyana," the IEA, an adviser to the United States and other industrialized countries, said in its five-year outlook. A boom in U.S. oil supply due to shale oil has countered efforts by OPEC and its partners led by Russia to restrain supplies. The so-called OPEC+ group began a new round of oil supply cuts in 2019 to support prices.

"By the end of the forecast (2024), oil exports from the United States will overtake Russia and close in on Saudi Arabia, bringing greater diversity of supply," the IEA said. Global oil demand growth is set to ease as China slows but will still rise by an annual average of 1.2 MMbpd to 2024 when it will reach 106.4 MMbpd.

Even so, the IEA doesn’t expect moves such as greater adoption of electric cars to put a cap on demand growth yet. Goldman Sachs has said oil demand could peak by 2024 under some circumstances. "The IEA continues to see no peak in oil demand, as petrochemicals and jet fuel remain the key drivers of growth, particularly in the United States and Asia, more than offsetting a slowdown in gasoline due to efficiency gains and electric cars," it IEA said.

Demand for OPEC crude will rise but given the growth expected from the United States and other non-OPEC producers, Saudi Arabia and its allies will probably have to maintain efforts to withhold supplies. "Market management by producers is likely to remain necessary for some time given the outlook for the call on OPEC crude," the report said.

The IEA forecasts demand for OPEC crude will drop in 2020 and then rise to average 31.3 MMbpd in 2023. The 2023 figure is up by just 600,000 bpd from this year and less than the previous forecast. Iraq, the IEA said, would reinforce its position as a top producer, becoming the world’s third-largest source of new supply and driving growth within OPEC.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The IRPC EurAsia Advisory Board is pleased to announce the preliminary agenda for the downstream industry’s leading technical conference, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Featuring speakers from companies such as Neste, Borealis Polymers, ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, BP, Petrobras, Sinopec, Reliance, Eni, MOL Group, and SABIC, IRPC EurAsia is bringing together the industry’s leading minds for two days of learning and networking.

Produced by Hydrocarbon Processing, and supported by Host Sponsor Neste, IRPC EurAsia combines the experience of the industry’s leading technical publication with the operational understanding of top executives and engineers, and includes featured presentations by Neste, KBC, Borealis Polymers and ADNOC’s former chief economist.

Peter Vanacker, Chief Executive Officer, Neste, will start the conference with a focus on transforming business for a low-carbon society.

Stephen George, Chief Economist, KBC, will look to the future in a featured presentation entitled European refining 2050: Turning vision into reality.

Thomas Van de Velde, Vice President, BU Hydrocarbons and Energy, Borealis Polymers, will unpack the circular economy and digitalization as strategic opportunities for the European petrochemical industry.

And Kamel Ben-Naceur, General Manager, Nomadia Energy Consulting and former Chief Economist, ADNOC, will address global decarbonization scenarios for the petrochemical sector.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Mexican Energy Minister Rocio Nahle said the oil refinery that the new administration seeks to build will cost between USD6 billion and USD8 billion and could be ready in three years, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Speaking on local radio, Nahle’s cost and timing estimates for the project are in line with what President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said in the past.

As MRC informed earlier, Mexico produces about 1.84 million bpd of crude, more than 60 percent of which is exported, while it imports over 1 million bpd of refined products, including gasoline and diesel, according to U.S. and Mexican government data.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will decide on the seven pending applications for small refinery waivers from the nation's biofuel laws for the 2017 calendar year in the next week, agency administrator Andrew Wheeler said, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Once the 2017 applications are decided, the EPA will consider at least 37 waiver applications submitted for 2018, Wheeler said during an energy industry summit. The EPA is expected to rule on all of the applications by March 30.

The EPA, under former administrator Scott Pruitt, greatly expanded the number of small refineries receiving waivers from the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), a law that requires refiners to blend biofuels like ethanol into the fuel pool or buy compliance credits from those who do.

The program has been an economic boom for corn farmers in the Midwest, but merchant refiners say the program has added hundreds of millions of dollars in compliance costs.

Small refineries with capacity of less than 75,000 barrels per day can apply for exemptions from the RFS if they can prove complying with the law would create a disproportionate economic hardship.

Previously, refineries had to prove that complying would hurt profits, but the EPA scrapped that part of the test in 2017, aiding the expansion and allowing oil majors like Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp to get exemptions, Reuters reported.

Refiners have until early 2019 to comply with all or a portion of the 2017 obligation.

The EPA has already granted 29 small refinery exemptions for 2017, up from 19 in 2016 and just seven in 2015. The EPA has yet to deny any application for 2017.

The oil industry converges this week on Houston at CERAWeek, the largest gathering of top energy executives in the Americas, with oil majors showing a bigger presence as the United States has taken the crown as the largest crude producer in the world.

Both U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Energy Secretary Rick Perry will speak at the conference.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Global technology and engineering company Emerson announced it has signed multiple contracts totaling USD12 million with India’s largest commercial oil company, Indian Oil Corporation Limited, to modernize operations and emissions programs at the company’s refineries, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Under the contracts, Emerson will serve as automation contractor, combining its deep refining expertise and advanced technologies to help IndianOil meet the country’s new Bharat Stage VI (BS-VI) low-sulfur emissions standards, which take effect in April 2020. The BS-VI emission standards mandate a maximum sulfur content of 10 parts-per-million, which matches best practices set by Europe, the United States and other countries, and include limits on carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter.

"Companies that leverage automation technologies and digital transformation programs will have a significant advantage in their goal of reaching Top Quartile performance," said Lal Karsanbhai, executive president of Emerson’s Automation Solutions business. "IndianOil has long been a valued customer of Emerson, and we are proud to provide them with the technology and expertise they require to meet these new fuel regulations while also modernizing operations."

The project will upgrade 14 different process units, including diesel hydro-treating units designed to reduce sulfur content and octane-boosting units either being installed or augmented with desulfurization technologies.

As the country’s largest commercial enterprise with a workforce of more than 33,000, IndianOil plays a significant role in fueling the development of the economy. With a mandate to ensure India's energy security and self-sufficiency in the refining and marketing of petroleum products, IndianOil impacts the entire hydrocarbon value chain, including refining, pipeline transportation, marketing of petroleum products, exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas and petrochemicals.

To help IndianOil reach its goals, Emerson will install advanced technologies, including DeltaVTM distributed control systems; DeltaV safety instrumented systems and AMS asset management software; WirelessHART®-enabled instruments; wired field instruments including pressure, temperature and flow sensors; control and isolation valves; and gas analyzers. Emerson will also provide installation, commissioning, factory-acceptance testing and training support services for IndianOil’s refineries in Panipat, Vadodara, Haldia and Bongaigaon.
MRC