PVC production in Russia increased by 3% in January-February 2019

MOSCOW (MRC) - Russian producers of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) kept high capacity utilisation in the first two months of the year, despite the low season in the domestic market. Total production of PVC reached 169,500 tonnes in January-February, up 3% year on year, according to MRC ScanPlast.

February production of unmixed PVC in Russia was 81,700 tonnes from 87,800 tonnes a month earlier, several producers decreased capacity utilisation. Overall PVC output was 169,500 tonnes in the first two months of 2019, compared to 165,200 tonnes a year earlier.

The structure of PVC production by plants looked the following way over the stated period.

RusVinyl (JV of SIBUR and SolVin) produced about 28,600 tonnes of PVC in February, with emulsion polyvinyl chloride (EPVC) accounting for 2,000 tonnes, compared to 29,500 tonnes a month earlier. Overall PVC production at RusVinyl exceeded 58,000 tonnes in January-February 2019, up by 8% year on year.

SayanskKhimPlast produced 25,100 tonnes of suspension PVC (SPVC) last month, whereas this figure was only 27,700 tonnes in February.
The Sayansk plant managed to produce about 52,800 tonnes of resin in January-February, compared to 52,000 tonnes a year earlier.

Baskhir Soda Company produced about 21,500 tonnes of SPVC in February, against 23,000 tonnes a month earlier. Total SPVC production at Baskhir Soda Company increased to 44,400 tonnes in the first two months of this year, compared to 43,800 tonnes in the same period in 2018.

Kaustik (Volgograd) produced 6,600 tonnes of SPVC in February, compared with 7,600 tonnes in January. Thus, Kaustik's overall production of SPVC reached 14,200 tonnes in the first two months of 2019 versus 15,500 tonnes a year earlier.


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MOSCOW (MRC) -- High-sulfur fuel oil demand will fall 60 percent next year while marine gasoil demand will more than double due to new international regulations on shipping fuel, the International Energy Agency said, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

A new 0.5 percent sulfur content cap in shipping fuel set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will come into effect in 2020, one of the biggest fundamental events to hit oil markets in years.

Refiners and shipping firms have had years to prepare, but disruptions are still anticipated. Vessels will have to stop using high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) unless they install filters, or use far more expensive compliant fuels. A fuel type designed to meet the new cap, very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO), will initially be in limited supply, and quality discrepancies at different ports mean shippers are likely to stick to another compliant but pricier fuel, marine gasoil.

In 2020, "demand for HSFO... will fall from 3.5 million barrels per day to 1.4 MMbpd," the IEA said in a report. “Demand for marine gasoil (will increase) from 900,000 bpd to 2 MMbpd." The IEA expects VLSFO demand to reach 1 MMbpd in 2020 and 1.8 MMbpd by 2024, while marine gasoil demand will peak in 2020 and decrease to 1.8 MMbpd by 2024.

A slight shortfall in marine gasoil supply next year is likely to push up prices by a fifth, assuming a significant level of non-compliance, the IEA said, and a draw on gasoil stocks of about 200,000 bpd. One solution for shipping firms is to install sulfur filtering units on board, known as scrubbers, which would allow vessels to continue burning cheaper HSFO.

The IEA estimates that about 4,000 scrubbers will be installed by 2020, consuming around 680,000 bpd of fuel oil on average, up from 340,000 bpd in 2019. As HSFO demand drops, the IEA expects the unwanted product to be used for cement plants and power generation particularly in the Middle East, where 11 gigawatts of new power capacity is being installed, mainly in Saudi Arabia.

The agency also expects a significant level of non-compliance in the first year of the new regulations due to the shortfall of VLSFO. It expects non-compliant vessels to account for 16 percent, or 700,000 bpd, of HSFO demand.

Looking ahead to 2024, annual gasoil demand growth will rise to 0.9 percent, supported by IMO 2020, with marine demand growing at a rate of 12.7 percent per year. Refiners are expected to raise their gasoil output by 2.3 MMbpd by 2024.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Mark Mobius has "governance" concerns over investing in shares or bonds that could be issued by Saudi Aramco in the future because of Riyadh's control over the oil giant, the emerging markets investor said, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

"At the end of the day decisions about the company will not necessarily be for the benefit of the larger shareholders but for the government," Mobius told Reuters on the sidelines of an investment conference in Dubai.

Saudi Aramco is expected to issue its first international bond over the next few months with the proceeds likely to be linked to the acquisition of a controlling stake in petrochemical maker SABIC.

Mobius said he would not invest in Aramco's bonds unless the risk-reward ratio is balanced by high interest rates, which would have to be higher than what Saudi Arabia offers.

"Because at the end of the day if there is dissolution in one way or another the Aramco bond would be the first to go, the first to be sacrificed (before the sovereign)" he said.

Saudi Aramco pulled its planned $100 billion initial public offering (IPO) last year, partly because of concern on disclosure requirements, sources familiar with the decision said. The planned IPO is at the heart of Saudi Arabia's push to reform its economy and diversify its revenues from oil.

But Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said in January a listing would happen by 2021.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- BP Marine has announced that it will begin to retail low sulfur fuel that meets new MARPOL regulations limiting the sulfur content of marine fuels. BP is introducing a new very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO), with a maximum 0.5% sulfur content, following successful sea trials with fuel manufactured and supplied by BP in the Amsterdam/Rotterdam/Antwerp (ARA) and Singapore hubs, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Working closely with the International Maritime Organization, customers and partners, BP has developed a marine fuel offer that includes this new VLSFO along with marine gas oil and also high sulfur fuel oil for vessels that are equipped with scrubbers. BP intends to retail the new 0.5% sulfur VLSFO globally.

"BP supports the ambitions of MARPOL to reduce air pollution from ships and we have been actively working with partners to prepare for its introduction. We have undertaken a comprehensive test campaign, conducting ship-board trials of our new very low sulfur fuel. Following the success of these sea trials, and working closely with our customers, we believe we now have a robust commercial offer that will support customers in complying with MARPOL," said Eddie Gauci, Global Head, BP Marine.

In order to manufacture a full range of MARPOL-compliant marine fuels, BP’s refineries have made a number of configuration changes to support the segregation, handling and storage of the fuels.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- The United States is expected to drive global oil supply growth over the next five years, adding another 4 million barrels per day to the country’s already booming output, according to the International Energy Agency, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

U.S. oil output will climb to 19.6 MMbpd by 2024 from 15.5 million last year, the Paris-based agency said. Gross crude exports will double, leading to greater competition especially in the Asian market. The outlook points to pressure on demand for crude from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as the United States and other rivals expand supplies. However, in a boost for the producers, the IEA doesn’t see a peak in global demand yet.

"The United States is increasingly leading the expansion in global oil supplies, with significant growth also seen among other non-OPEC producers, including Brazil, Norway and new producer Guyana," the IEA, an adviser to the United States and other industrialized countries, said in its five-year outlook. A boom in U.S. oil supply due to shale oil has countered efforts by OPEC and its partners led by Russia to restrain supplies. The so-called OPEC+ group began a new round of oil supply cuts in 2019 to support prices.

"By the end of the forecast (2024), oil exports from the United States will overtake Russia and close in on Saudi Arabia, bringing greater diversity of supply," the IEA said. Global oil demand growth is set to ease as China slows but will still rise by an annual average of 1.2 MMbpd to 2024 when it will reach 106.4 MMbpd.

Even so, the IEA doesn’t expect moves such as greater adoption of electric cars to put a cap on demand growth yet. Goldman Sachs has said oil demand could peak by 2024 under some circumstances. "The IEA continues to see no peak in oil demand, as petrochemicals and jet fuel remain the key drivers of growth, particularly in the United States and Asia, more than offsetting a slowdown in gasoline due to efficiency gains and electric cars," it IEA said.

Demand for OPEC crude will rise but given the growth expected from the United States and other non-OPEC producers, Saudi Arabia and its allies will probably have to maintain efforts to withhold supplies. "Market management by producers is likely to remain necessary for some time given the outlook for the call on OPEC crude," the report said.

The IEA forecasts demand for OPEC crude will drop in 2020 and then rise to average 31.3 MMbpd in 2023. The 2023 figure is up by just 600,000 bpd from this year and less than the previous forecast. Iraq, the IEA said, would reinforce its position as a top producer, becoming the world’s third-largest source of new supply and driving growth within OPEC.
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