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Chemical Activity Barometer is stable in November

November 27/2019

MOSCOW (MRC) The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), was stable (0.0 percent change) in November on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 0.3 percent decline in October. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer was off 0.2 percent (3MMA), said Americanchemistry.

The unadjusted data showed a solid 0.6 percent gain and was driven by increases among all four components. The diffusion index rose to 59 percent in November. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for October was revised upward by 0.16 points and that for September by 0.18 points.

The CAB signals slow gains in U.S. commerce into mid-year 2020, said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

Production-related indicators improved in November. Trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were slightly positive and suggest slow gains in housing activity. Plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were mixed, despite strong consumer spending reflecting elevated confidence and solid job and income gains. Performance chemistry eased and U.S. exports were weak. Equity prices rose sharply this month, and product and input prices gained as well. Inventory and other indicators were positive.

The CAB is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. Due to its early position in the supply chain, chemical industry activity has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economys business cycle, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the broader economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so a three-month moving average of the CAB reading is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.

We remind that, Russia's output of chemical products rose in October 2019 by 5.4% month on month.
However, production of basic chemicals increased by 3.9% in the first ten months of 2019. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the largest increase in production volumes on an annualized basis accounted for mineral fertilizers and polymers in primary form. Thus, 210 ,000 tonnes of ethylene were produced in October, compared to 200,000 tonnes a month earlier. Limited production was a result of scheduled shutdowns of several large producers in September-October.
Author:Anna Larionova
Tags:chemical fertilizers, petroleum products, propylene, ethylene, petrochemistry.
Category:General News
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