OPEC sees small 2020 oil deficit even before latest supply cut

MOSCOW (MRC) -- OPEC pointed to a small deficit in the oil market next year due to restraint by Saudi Arabia even before the latest supply pact with other producers takes effect, suggesting a tighter market than previously thought, reported Reuters.

In a monthly report, OPEC said demand for its crude will average 29.58 million barrels per day (bpd) next year. OPEC pumped less oil in November than the average 2020 requirement, having in previous months supplied more.

The report retreats further from OPEC’s initial projection of a 2020 supply glut as output from rival producers such as US shale has grown more slowly than expected. This will give a tailwind to efforts by OPEC and partners led by Russia to support the market next year.

OPEC kept its 2020 economic and oil demand growth forecasts steady and was more upbeat about the outlook.

"On the positive side, the global trade slowdown has likely bottomed out, and now the negative trend in industrial production seen in 2019 is expected to reverse in 2020," the report said.

Oil prices were steady after the report’s release, trading near USD64 a barrel, below the level some OPEC officials have said they favour.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, have since Jan. 1 implemented a deal to cut output by 1.2 million bpd to support the market.

At meetings last week, OPEC+ agreed to a further cut of 500,000 bpd from Jan. 1 2020.

The report showed OPEC production falling even before the new deal takes effect.

In November, OPEC output fell by 193,000 bpd to 29.55 million bpd, according to figures the group collects from secondary sources, as Saudi Arabia cut supply.

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it made an even bigger cut in supply of over 400,000 bpd last month. The kingdom had boosted production in October after attacks on its oil facilities in September briefly more than halved output.

The November production rate suggests there would be a 2020 deficit of 30,000 bpd if OPEC kept pumping the same amount and other factors remained equal, less than the 70,000 bpd surplus implied in November’s report and an excess of over 500,000 bpd seen in July.

OPEC and its partners have been limiting supply since 2017, helping to revive prices by clearing a glut that built up in 2014 to 2016. But higher prices have also boosted US shale and other rival supplies.

In the report, OPEC said non-OPEC supply will grow by 2.17 million bpd in 2020, unchanged from the previous forecast but 270,000 less than initially thought in July as shale has not grown as quickly as first thought.

"In 2020, non-OPEC supply is expected to see a continued slowdown in growth on the back of decreased investment and lower drilling activities in US tight oil," OPEC said, using another term for shale.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Berlin Packaging has completed the acquisition of Netherlands-based Novio Packaging Group, said Packaging-gateway.

The two companies have signed a definitive agreement for the acquisition in October. The deal strengthens Berlin’s operations by positioning it as the first company in Europe that supplies packaging for all markets and substrates.

As part of the deal, Berlin has retained all Novio employees and locations. Novio’s founders and managing directors Erik Trum and Marck Jansen will also continue in their roles. As part of the acquisition, Novio Packaging has joined Berlin Packaging’s existing European companies.

Berlin’s portfolio includes speciality glass market leader Bruni Glass, closure experts Bruni Erben and four different companies.

The combined businesses will own over 130 sales and warehouse locations across North America and Europe. It will also include a portfolio of more than 40,000 glass, plastic, as well as metal container and closure items.

Berlin Packaging board executive chairman Michael Grebe said: “As with our company, Novio Packaging’s strong performance is a testament to their creative solutions, strong supply chain and emphasis on exceptional customer service.

"By combining the strengths of both companies, this acquisition helps us meet our high growth goals and solidifies our position as the largest, most comprehensive and most customer-focused rigid packaging supplier on two continents."

The deal enables Novio Packaging’s customers to use Berlin Packaging’s speciality glass expertise, services and design studios.

As MRC informed earlier, INEOS Styrolution has partnered with post-consumer plastics recycling company Agilyx to build a polystyrene (PS) chemical recycling facility in Channahon, Illinois.

As per ICIS-MRC Price Report, Ineos Styrolution"s general purpose polystyrene (GPPS) imports into Russia increased in the first ten months of 2019 by 2 times year on year to 10,600 tonnes. This figure was 4,900 tonnes in January-October 2018. Ineos Styrolution is the largest GPPS supplier to Russia. European material accounted for 45% of the total GPPS shipments over the stated period versus 30% in the first ten months of 2018. However, October Styrolution"s GPPS shipments to the Russian market decreased by more than 2 times to 700 tonnes from 1,500 tonnes a month earlier, the company"s imports into the country were 700 tonnes in October 2018.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- US producers ExxonMobil Corp and Hess Corp plan to export the first-ever shipments of crude oil from Guyana between January and February, a milestone for Latin America’s newest oil producer, reported Reuters with reference to sources with knowledge of the plans.

A consortium including both companies and a unit of China’s CNOOC Ltd have so far discovered more than 6 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas resources off Guyana’s coast, which could eventually produce 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) for a country that has no history of crude output.

Those finds are turning Guyana, an impoverished nation bordering longtime producers Venezuela and Brazil, into a hot property for oil investment.

Exxon’s Guyana spokeswoman last week told Reuters that "key activities" on its giant Stabroek block, including early production, were running ahead of schedule. He said that coming weeks would be critical as progress could be impacted by weather and other factors.

The US company did not provide additional details. Hess declined to comment. CNOOC and Guyana’s government were not immediately available for comment.

Liza will be the first Guyanese crude grade produced and offered to the oil market. It has 32 API degrees of density and 0.5 percent of sulfur content, according to Exxon’s assay seen by Reuters.

Exxon is planning on shipping two 1-million-barrel cargoes of Liza crude in January, to be followed by similarly sized shipments from Hess and Guyana’s government in February.

Exxon plans to process the oil at its refineries, while Hess could offer it for spot sales. CNOOC, which has not yet scheduled exports, would ship it to China, whose refiners like using similar medium sweet grades, the sources said.

Interested buyers are exploring options to co-load Liza crude with other South American crudes bound for Asia, mainly Brazilian grades. Starting in March, very large crude carriers (VLCCs) could lift up to 2 million barrels each, depending on weather conditions, the sources added.

"We are expecting Liza to be traded at USD4-USD6 over Brent crude prices during the first three months of exports. First buyers would test it, and then prices could go up a little," a trader interested in purchases said.

The Liza project is expected to produce up to 120,000 bpd of oil in 2020-2022 and reach 750,000 bpd by 2025. Exxon had initially planned first production to come in early 2020, but in November it said it could be available in December.

Exxon and its partners have made 14 large discoveries at the Stabroek block since 2015.

We remind that, as MRC informed earlier, ExxonMobil's cracker at Notre Dame de Gravenchon, France, had an "unexpected stoppage" on Friday, 6 December, following a technical failure this October.

As reported before, an electric fire Saturday morning, 19 October, 2019, on the ExxonMobil facilities in Notre-Dame-de-Gravenchon (Seine Maritime) resulted in a plume of smoke, below the regulatory thresholds, which could remain visible for several days.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,724,670 tonnes in the first ten months of 2019, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. The estimated PP consumption in the Russian market in January-October 2019 totalled 1,066,520 tonnes, up by 7% year on year. Supply of block copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymer) and homopolymer of propylene (homopolymer PP) increased, demand for statistical copolymers (PP random copolymer) decreased.

ExxonMobil is the largest non-government owned company in the energy industry and produces about 3% of the world's oil and about 2% of the world's energy.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Exxon Mobil Corp began restarting the large crude distillation unit (CDU) at its 369,024 barrel-per-day (bpd) Beaumont, Texas, refinery, reported Reuters with reference to sources familiar with plant operations said.

The 240,000-bpd Crude B CDU was shut on Wednesday to repair a leak, the sources said.

Exxon spokesman Jeremy Eikenberry declined to discuss the status of individual units at the Beaumont refinery.

The two CDUs at the Beaumont refinery do the primary refining of crude oil into hydrocarbon feedstock for all other production units. The smaller Crude A CDU remained in operation while Crude B was shut.

As MRC wrote previously, ExxonMobil's cracker at Notre Dame de Gravenchon, France, had an "unexpected stoppage" on Friday, 6 December, following a technical failure this October.

As reported earlier, an electric fire Saturday morning, 19 October, 2019, on the ExxonMobil facilities in Notre-Dame-de-Gravenchon (Seine Maritime) resulted in a plume of smoke, below the regulatory thresholds, which could remain visible for several days.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,724,670 tonnes in the first ten months of 2019, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. The estimated PP consumption in the Russian market in January-October 2019 totalled 1,066,520 tonnes, up by 7% year on year. Supply of block copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymer) and homopolymer of propylene (homopolymer PP) increased, demand for statistical copolymers (PP random copolymer) decreased.

ExxonMobil is the largest non-government owned company in the energy industry and produces about 3% of the world's oil and about 2% of the world's energy.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Lotte Chemical Corp., a major South Korean chemical company, said its merger with Lotte Advanced Materials Co. will be completed by 2 January 2020, reported GV.

The company announced the merger plans on 22 August 2019, when it unveiled its decision to merge with its wholly owned subsidiary as part of efforts to streamline its chemical business.

Lotte Chemical formerly owned a 90 percent stake in Lotte Advanced Materials after it acquired the company from Samsung Group in April 2016. It bought the remaining 10 percent stake from Samsung SDI Co. for KRW 279.5 billion (USD 231 million) on 30 July 2019.

Lotte Chemical said the move is intended to help boost the company's competitiveness by bringing specialty chemicals businesses under the same wing and maximizing efficiency in management. The merger will also boost its annual polycarbonate (PC) production capacity to 460,000 tons.

Lotte Advanced Materials currently produces 240,000 tons of PC a year.

We remind that, as MRC informed before, Lotte Chemical Titan Holding (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia), an affiliate of Lotte Chemical (Seoul, South Korea), announced that the group's ethane cracker and ethylene glycol (EG) plant at Lake Charles, Louisiana, commenced commercial operations in August, 2019. Lotte Chemical USA, a 40/60 joint venture (JV) between Lotte Chemical Titan and Lotte Chemical, holds the Lotte group's stakes in the plants. The USD3.1-billion ethane cracker is an 88/12 JV between Lotte Chemical USA and Axiall, a subsidiary of Westlake Chemical. Lotte has invested about USD1.9 billion in the JV. Lotte Chemical USA owns 100% of the EG plant.

Lotte is the first South Korean petrochemical company to enter the ethane-cracking business in North America using shale gas. Lotte Chemical operates naphtha crackers at Yeosu and Daesan, South Korea, and Lotte Chemical Titan operates a cracker at Pasir Gudang, Malaysia. Lotte says that the US cracker increases the group's overall ethylene capacity to 4.5 MMt/y, making it the seventh-biggest producer of ethylene worldwide.

According to ICIS-MRC Price report, Russia's estimated consumption of polycarbonate (PC) rose in in the first three quarters of 2019 by 11% year on year to 61,000 tonnes (54,800 tonnes a year earlier). Consumption in the injection moulding sector grew in the first nine months of 2019 by 10% year on year to 7,900 tonnes from 7,200 tonnes a year earlier.
MRC