MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asia is expected to receive up to 1.7 million tonnes of naphtha from the West, including Europe, the Mediterranean and the United States in January, which is more than 6% higher versus 2019's monthly average, reported Reuters with reference to industry sources' statement on Friday.
But low supplies from the Middle East, which is the largest naphtha supplier to Asia, will keep a supply crunch going for a while more, they added.
According to data from Refinitiv's Oil Research Team, up to 2.3 million tonnes of naphtha are expected in Asia from the Middle East, down from a monthly average of close to 2.5 million tonnes in 2019.
"We probably are still short of some 300,000 tonnes of naphtha next month," said one of the sources who tracks eastbound cargoes.
The supply crunch has persisted since September, when drone attacks hit Saudi oilfields.
That prompted Saudi oil giant Aramco to snap up available spot cargoes to meet customers' needs.
Refinery maintenance in the Middle East in the fourth quarter including facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and an upcoming turnaround in the United Arab Emirates added to the supply woes, industry sources said.
These factors have driven naphtha premiums to multi-year highs and crack spreads (the premiums of refining a barrel of Brent crude into naphtha) to a two-year high.
Asia's naphtha crack was near a two-year high on Thursday at USD124.60 a tonne but fell on Friday to a five-session low of USD116.15 a tonne.
That still contrasted with the situation in June when the value turned negative for the first time in a decade.
"Naphtha was extremely bearish for a long time but it's now overheated and petrochemical margins are so squeezed that makers are contemplating cracker run cuts," said a Singapore-based source.
Naphtha is a feedstock for plastics. The latter's prices typically have to be USD400 to USD450 above naphtha to reach a break-even point.
At present, plastics are sold between USD800 and USD900 a tonne on a cost-and-freight (C&F) Southeast Asia basis, depending on the grades, while naphtha is over USD600 a tonne.
"It's getting harder to keep crackers running at maximum mode given the naphtha prices," said a North Asian source, echoing the view of many other buyers.
Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).
According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,724,670 tonnes in the first ten months of 2019, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. The estimated PP consumption in the Russian market in January-October 2019 totalled 1,066,520 tonnes, up by 7% year on year. Supply of block copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymer) and homopolymer of propylene (homopolymer PP) increased, demand for statistical copolymers (PP random copolymer) decreased.
MRC