Oil suffers rout after Saudi Arabia fires first shot of price war

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Losing more than a quarter of their value, oil prices were set for their biggest daily rout since the first Gulf War, after Saudi Arabia cut its official prices in a market already reeling from the impact of the coronavirus on global demand, reported Reuters.

Saudi Arabia slashed its official selling prices and made plans to ramp up crude output next month after Russia balked at making a further steep output cut proposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to stabilize oil markets.

Brent LCOc1 crude futures were down USD11.38, or 25%, at USD33.89 a barrel by 0732 GMT, after earlier dropping to USD31.02, their lowest since Feb. 12, 2016. Brent futures were on track for their biggest daily decline since Jan. 17, 1991, when prices dropped at the start of the first Gulf War.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 fell by USD11.12, or 27%, to USD30.16 a barrel, after touching USD27.34, also the lowest since Feb. 12, 2016. The US benchmark was potentially heading for its biggest decline on record, surpassing a 33% fall in January 1991.

"The timing of this lower price environment should be limited to a few months unless this whole virus impact on global market and consumer confidence triggers the next recession," said Keith Barnett, senior vice president strategic analysis at ARM Energy in Houston.

The disintegration of the grouping called OPEC+ - made up of OPEC plus other producers including Russia - ends more than three years of cooperation to support the market.

Saudi Arabia plans to boost its crude output above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in April after the current deal to curb production expires at the end of March, two sources told Reuters on Sunday.

The world’s biggest oil exporter is attempting to punish Russia, the world’s second-largest producer, for not supporting the production cuts proposed last week by OPEC.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major producers last battled for market share like this between 2014 and 2016 to try to squeeze out production from the United States, which has grown to become the world’s biggest oil producer as flows from shale oil fields doubled over the last decade.

"The deal was always destined to fail," said Matt Stanley, senior broker at Starfuels in Dubai.

"All that happened was, and all that has consistently happened since the inception of the cuts, has been that US shale producers have gained market share."

Saudi Arabia over the weekend cut its official selling prices for April for all crude grades to all destinations by between USD6 and USD8 a barrel.

"The prognosis for the oil market is even more dire than in November 2014, when such a price war last started, as it comes to a head with the signi?cant collapse in oil demand due to the coronavirus," Goldman Sachs said.

Meanwhile, China’s efforts to curtail the coronavirus outbreak has disrupted the world’s second-largest economy and curtailed shipments to the biggest oil importer.

And the spread of the virus to other major economies such as Italy and South Korea and the growing number of cases in the United States have increased concerns that oil demand will slump this year.

Goldman Sachs and other major banks such as Morgan Stanley have cut their demand growth forecasts, with Morgan Stanley predicting China will have zero demand growth in 2020. Goldman sees a contraction of 150,000 bpd in global demand.

Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for Brent to USD30 for the second and third quarters of 2020.

In other markets, the dollar was down sharply against the yen, Asian stock markets sharply lower, and gold rose to its highest since 2013 as investors fled to safe havens.

We remind that, as MRC informed earlier, state-owned PetroChina shut its Guangxi Petrochemical in southern Guangxi province on February 9, 2020, for scheduled 50-day maintenance. The maintenance should help the refinery to offset stock pressure after product demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,093,260 tonnes in 2019, up by 6% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. PE shipments rose from both domestic producers and foreign suppliers. The estimated PP consumption in the Russian market was 1,260,400 tonnes in January-December 2019, up by 4% year on year. Supply of almost all grades of propylene polymers increased, except for statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers).
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- At least one person has died in an explosion at a chemical plant in the Barcelona neighborhood of La Verneda, local emergency services said in a tweet, as per Reuters.

The emergency services said they were coordinating with the fire service and the company to determine what type of products have been affected by the blast.

As MRC informed earlier, explosion in Barcelona is the second deadly accident the Catalan chemicals industry has suffered in less than two months, after a blast at Iqoxe's facilities in Tarragona on 14 January left three people dead. Ethylene oxide (EO) supply in Europe has been tight after the blast in Tarragona, which chemical park is one of the hubs for petrochemicals production in Spain.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,093,260 tonnes in 2019, up by 6% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. PE shipments rose from both domestic producers and foreign suppliers. The estimated PP consumption in the Russian market was 1,260,400 tonnes in January-December 2019, up by 4% year on year. Supply of almost all grades of propylene polymers increased, except for statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers).

Proquibasa is a privately-owned chemicals producer serving a wide range of industries, from coatings and adhesives to detergents and personal care.

It also produces some chemicals for the lubricants industry and for industrial cleaners as well as some pharmaceutical active ingredients and food additives.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Borealis has started to produce polypropylene (PP) based on Neste-produced renewable feedstock in its production facilities in Kallo and Beringen, Belgium, reported Hydrocarbonprocessing.

This marks the first time that Borealis has replaced fossil fuel-based feedstock in its large-scale commercial production of PP. The Belgian plants were recently awarded by the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) organization with ISCC Plus certification for its renewable PP.

Taking its commitment to the next level for advancing the circular economy, Borealis once again furthers its EverMinds ambitions. This path breaking venture in sustainable production is being driven in close collaboration with upstream and downstream value chain partners such as Neste and Henkel. It also aligns with the Borealis’ aim to ensure that 100% of its consumer products are recyclable, reusable, or produced from renewable sources by 2025.

Borealis and its upstream partner Neste are moving the industry closer to a circular economy of plastics thanks to the production start in December 2019 of renewable PP. After producing renewable propane using its proprietary NEXBTL technology, Neste sells the renewable propane to the Borealis propane dehydrogenation plant in Kallo. Here it is converted to renewable propylene, then subsequently to renewable PP at Kallo and Beringen plants.

The recently finalized audits carried out by an independent third party have resulted in an ISCC Plus certification for the renewable PP produced at both Kallo and Beringen plants. This certification encompasses the entire value chain scope and verifies that the renewable feedstock used is certified as being 100% renewable and sustainably produced, including traceability to point of origin.

Downstream partners from a variety of industries such as consumer packaging, automotive, healthcare, and appliance industries can now commercialize their end-use products with a lower carbon footprint based on renewable propylene and PP produced at Borealis’ Belgian plants. In response to increasing demand, Borealis is working with value chain partners to expand availability.

Henkel, a global market leader in the adhesives sector and known for its strong brands in Laundry & Home Care and Beauty Care, has already embraced the values of the circular economy. Having made the use of sustainable materials a key pillar in its packaging strategy, Henkel is committed to work with its value chain partners to drive sustainable packaging solutions. Including renewable PP content in the packaging of a major Henkel brand over the course of the year marks another step in its efforts to significantly reduce its use of fossil fuel-based virgin plastics.

"Producing renewable PP based on renewable feedstock for the first time in history is another concrete step towards a more sustainable carbon future,” says Lucrece Foufopoulos, Borealis Executive Vice President Polyolefins, Innovation and Circular Economy Solutions. “Working closely with partners like Neste and Henkel, who share our EverMinds™ mind-set, is key to shaping a better tomorrow. Thinking circular means capitalising on growth opportunities that accelerate the transformation to a circular economy."

"It is great to see, for the first time in history, a propane dehydrogenation facility using renewable propane to replace fossil feedstock, enabling Borealis to produce mass balance certified renewable polypropylene for sustainability-focused brands like Henkel. This is an exceptional example of collaboration across the value chain making a positive sustainability impact in the polymers sector,"' says Mercedes Alonso, Executive Vice President, Renewable Polymers and Chemicals, Neste.

We remind that, as MRC informed before, in early October 2019,, Austrian polyolefin supplier Borealis AG lifted a force majeure declared in the previous months at its production site in Kallo. On 2 Sep, 2019, the company declared force majeure on refinery grade propylene and propane from its production site in Kallo, Belgium, as a consequence of “unforeseen technical issues."

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, the estimated PP consumption in the Russian market was 1,260,400 tonnes in January-December 2019, up by 4% year on year. Supply of almost all grades of propylene polymers increased, except for statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers).

Borealis is a leading provider of innovative solutions in the fields of polyolefins, base chemicals and fertilizers. With headquarters in Vienna, Austria, Borealis currently employs around 6,500 and operates in over 120 countries.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Global stocks plunged on Monday and prices for crude oil tumbled as much as 33% after Saudi Arabia launched a price war with Russia, sending investors already worried by the coronavirus fleeing for the safety of bonds and the yen, reported Reuters.

Saudi Arabia had stunned markets with plans to raise its production significantly after the collapse of OPEC's supply cut agreement with Russia - a grab for market share reminiscent of a drive in 2014 that sent prices down by about two-thirds.

Brent crude and US crude futures slid as much as USD14 to trade at USD31.02 and USD27.34 a barrel in chaotic trade. They recovered some of their losses but were still down 23% - on track for their biggest daily fall since 1991, the start of the first Gulf War.

European equity markets suffered hefty losses with London , Frankfurt and Paris tumbling between 7-8%. Italy's main index slumped 11% after the government ordered a lockdown of large parts of the north of the country, including the financial capital Milan.

The pan-regional STOXX 600 fell into bear market territory -- a drop of more than 20% from its February peak. Oil stocks sank, with Premier Oil down 51% and energy giant BP trading 21% lower.

Heavy selling was set to continue on Wall Street with U.S. futures hitting their down limit after tumbling 5% on Sunday. The SPDR S&P 500 exchange traded fund is down 7.4% in premarket trading.

"We are seeing this week, finally, a full-scale liquidation and signs of capitulation, full-scale panic - we see this in every asset," said Paul O'Connor, head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson.

"The oil price plunge adds a huge disruptive dynamic to markets that are already very fragile - investors are looking for losers in this move."

The losses in Europe followed sharp declines in Asia. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan lost 4.4% in its worst day since August 2015 and Japan's Nikkei dropped 5.1%. Australia's commodity-heavy market closed down 7.3%, its biggest daily fall since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Investors piled into safe-haven bonds, driving the 30-year US bond yields beneath 1% on bets that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates by at least 75 basis points at its March 18 meeting, after having already delivered an emergency easing last week.

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to as low as 0.318% in its biggest daily fall since 2011 - during a sovereign debt crisis across the euro zone.

The number of people infected with the coronavirus rose above 110,000, and 3,800 have died from the virus.

"Markets appear to be capitulating as the virus arrives in the US, the heart of global finance," said BofA's David Hauner.

There were mounting worries that U.S. oil producers that had issued a lot of debt would be made uneconomic by the price drop.

The mood was also hit by North Korea firing three projectiles off its eastern coast.

Noting that many central banks had little scope to ease further, Martin Whetton, head of bond & rates strategy at CBA, said "let's hope we start to see some more clarity on the reaction."

Markets fully priced in an easing of 75 basis points from the Fed on March 18, while a cut to near zero was now seen as likely by April.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and will be under intense pressure to act, but rates are already deeply negative.

"This week’s ECB meeting will be the first test case for ECB President Christine Lagarde," ING's eurozone chief economist Carsten Brzeski wrote in a note. "With hardly any ammunition left and confronted with an external shock which cannot be tamed by economic policies, the ECB will have to balance carefully between words and deeds."

The 10-year Bund yield - the euro zone's leading safe asset - fell to a new record low of -0.863% while inflation expectations for the euro zone sank below 1% for the first time.

Data suggested the global economy toppled into recession this quarter. Figures out from China over the weekend showed exports fell 17.2% in January-February from a year earlier.

The fall in US yields and Fed rate expectations pushed the dollar to its largest weekly loss in four years before it recovered some ground..

The dollar extended its slide to 101.58 yen, depths not seen since late 2016. It was last down nearly 3% at 102.42.

The euro shot to the highest in over 13 months at USD1.1492 , to be last at USD1.1410.

Gold initially cleared USD1,700 per ounce to a fresh seven-year peak, only to fall back to USD1,677.4 amid talk some investors were having to sell to raise cash to cover margin calls in stocks.

We remind that, as MRC wrote previously, in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,093,260 tonnes in 2019, up by 6% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. PE shipments rose from both domestic producers and foreign suppliers. The estimated PP consumption in the Russian market was 1,260,400 tonnes in January-December 2019, up by 4% year on year. Supply of almost all grades of propylene polymers increased, except for statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers).
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Austria’s OMV AG is in talks to buy a USD4.68 billion stake in Borealis AG, a potentially record-breaking acquisition that would shift the state-controlled energy company’s focus to petrochemicals, said Bloomberg.

Taking over the maker of polyolefins, base chemicals, and fertilizer would accelerate Chief Executive Office Rainer Seele’s move toward higher-value, lower-emission oil products. That rebalancing could be further amplified if OMV helps fund the purchase by selling some upstream oil assets or gas pipelines.

OMV may buy a 39% stake in the affiliate from Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Co., it said in a statement late Friday. That would increase its holding in Borealis to 75%, while Mubadala would maintain a 25% stake. The emirate’s wealth fund also owns a quarter of OMV and is discussing joint investments in Abu Dhabi and Asia.

The potential transaction would expand the value chain of OMV in the petrochemical sector and would allow OMV to "fully consolidate the results,” the company said. The supervisory board has yet to discuss the transaction and will make a decision as soon as possible, it said. OMV’s next supervisory board meeting is taking place on Wednesday.

The move follows years of effort and investment by OMV to gain scale in exploration and production, refining and petrochemicals. While adding some oil and production assets in Asia and the Middle East in recent years, the company’s biggest potential investments are in Indonesia and Abu Dhabi, where the company plans to expand its refining and petrochemical capacities.

OMV has reached production of 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and has cut production costs over recent years. The company’s production is still relatively low compared to the biggest companies in the sector, making it harder to lower costs further.

A deal with Russia’s Gazprom for OMV to acquire a stake in the Akhimov 4A/5A gas field hit a roadblock on Friday as falling gas prices prompted a restart of price talks and a loss of exclusivity, OMV said. The Russian deal is a cornerstone in Seele’s revamp of OMV’s upstream business, which sold expensive North Sea oil production.

Seele has highlighted his focus on petrochemicals in the past, especially in emerging markets, where consumer demand is growing for plastics uses from packaging to car parts. OMV even flagged it’s looking for acquisition targets, but the price tag for the Borealis stake would be above anything it’s bought before.

Borealis is the world’s sixth-biggest maker of polyolefins - plastics made from oil - and had net income of 872 million euros (USD984 million) on 8.1 billion euros of revenue last year. Founded in Scandinavia, it’s now headquartered in Vienna with production facilities close to OMV’s Schwechat refinery, and has strong ties to Abu Dhabi.

OMV may sell upstream production assets or gas pipelines to help fund the deal, Austrian newspaper Der Standard reported earlier. OMV didn’t mention such plans in its statement.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,093,260 tonnes in 2019, up by 6% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. PE shipments rose from both domestic producers and foreign suppliers. The estimated PP consumption in the Russian market was 1,260,400 tonnes in January-December 2019, up by 4% year on year. Supply of almost all grades of propylene polymers increased, except for statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers).
MRC