Successful OPEC output deal fits a pattern

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Saudi Arabia and its allies in the expanded OPEC+ group of oil-exporting nations have successfully engineered a prospective deficit in the oil market, boosting spot prices and calendar spreads over the last four weeks, said Reuters.

Front-month Brent futures prices have risen by more than USD15 per barrel (80%) since the second trimester of April, while the six-month calendar spread has tightened from more than USD12 contango to less than USD3.

The unprecedented scale of the production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and its allies last month, and signs of strong compliance from many countries, including Russia, have attracted a lot of comment.

But experience suggests Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC and OPEC+ have always been able to force the market into deficit, boosting prices and spreads, when they wanted to do so, so it should not have come as a surprise.

The producer group, with a rotating cast of members, but always led by Saudi Arabia, successfully engineered deficits in 1998/99, 2001/02, 2006/07, 2008/09, 2016/17 and 2019/2020.

The recent production-cutting agreement, announced on April 9, and the subsequent response of spot prices and spreads, have fitted the pattern perfectly (tmsnrt.rs/36hngRN).

Most commentary focuses on the top-level diplomacy and personalities involved in production-cutting agreements.

But a more structural approach that focuses on the financial costs and incentives that lie behind each deal shows a recurring pattern.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing PE and PP.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 383,760 tonnes in the first two month of 2020, up by 14% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments increased due to the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 192,760 tonnes in January-February 2020, down by 6% year on year. Homopolymer PP accounted for the main decrease in imports.


MRC

Valero Memphis refinery raises production as demand improves

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Valero's 180K bbl/day Memphis, Tenn., refinery along the Mississippi River is operating at 60%-65% of capacity after gradual rate increases in recent weeks, reproted Seeking Alpha with reference to Bloomberg.

Rates at the Memphis refinery were reduced as low as 50% last month as demand slumped in the wake of the spread of the coronavirus.

The Memphis refinery reportedly is at least the second Valero U.S. site whose rates have been increased, as the 195K bbl/day Valero McKee refinery in west Texas was running at 77% of normal as of May 8 after cuts had reduced rates by a third.

As MRC wrote previously, two workers at Valero's Port Arthur refinery were tested positive for the coronavirus in early April 2020. Valero, the second largest refinery company in the United States, cut nonessential work and related contractors in the first week of April after initiating temperature checks last week - much later than than its peers in the industry.

Besides, in late March 2020, an employee at Valero Energy Corp’s Meraux, Louisiana, refinery was tested positive for the coronavirus.

We also remind that Valero Energy Corp restarted the small CDU at its Port Arthur refinery after repairing a valve on 25 September 2019. And in late October 2019, Valero Energy Corp shut the small crude distillation unit (CDU) at its Port Arthur refinery. The 75,000-bpd AVU 147 CDU was shut to repair a heat exchanger.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 557,060 tonnes in the first three month of 2020, up by 7% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments rose because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. Demand for LDPE subsided. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market was 267,630 tonnes in January-March 2020, down 20% year on year. Homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers accounted for the main decrease in imports.
MRC

Two people injured in oil tank explosion

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Fire crews worked to clear a fire at an oil storage container in the Galveston, Texas area after an explosion Tuesday, reported Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Local media reports the Galveston Fire Department was called to the Pelican Island Storage Terminal where two people were injured in a crude oil tank explosion.

Officials said it appeared welding was being done near or at the tank that holds 2 million gallons of heavy crude oil products.

The two people who were injured were transported to the University of Texas Medical Branch for treatment, according to city spokeswoman, Marissa Barnett.

A university located near the facility issued a shelter-in-place for anyone that was on campus.

It is not immediately known what caused the explosion.

We remind that as MRC wrote before, two major explosions and fire hit the TPC Group's Port Neches butadiene and raffinate petrochemical plant east of Houston, Texas, in late November 2019, injuring three workers. The site produces 20% of US butadiene, a raw material used in the production of synthetic rubbers and resins, according to a source familiar with company operations.

Butadiene is the main feedstock for the production of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS).

According to MRC's DataScope report, overall ABS imports to the Russian market increased in the first two months of 2020 by 8% year on year to 4,800 tonnes. This figure was at 4,500 tonnes in January-February 2019. February imports of material into the Russian Federation rose by 48% year on year to 2,500 tonnes from 2,700 tonnes a year earlier. Imports were 2,300 tonnes in January 2020.
MRC

Thai refinery IRPC delays USD1 B chemical project amid coronavirus outbreak

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Thai oil refiner and petrochemical producer IRPC Pcl has delayed a 32.4 billion baht (USD1 billion) petrochemical investment and cut run rates by 20% as demand for petroleum and petrochemical products falls amid the coronavirus outbreak, the company’s president said, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

“We are delaying the paraxylene project for now because demand is slowing and it uses a lot of capital … it is good project, but should be delayed given the current situation,” IRPC President, Noppadol Pinsupa, told Reuters in an interview.

The project was slated to begin this year and add 1.3 million tonnes paraxylene, used to manufacture industrial chemicals that make plastic bottles and fabrics, and about 400,00 tonnes of benzene to IRPC’s capacity in 2024.

“We have to focus on liquidity and manage investments including holding off projects that are not immediately necessary or not suitable for the situation,” he said.

However, IRPC would press ahead with a 9 billion baht clean fuels project, he said, because it was a strategic investment and in step with government regulation to improve diesel quality, he added.

The company also slowed down crude oil refining after demand for petroleum products dropped.

“After the crisis started, we reduced crude runs by 20% on average and it will stay at this level in second quarter,” Noppadol said.

It had planned to refine 205,000 to 210,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year, but has reduced that number to 180,000 bpd. IRPC is Thailand’s third largest refiner with a capacity of 215,000 bpd.

The coronavirus outbreak has dampened demand for its petroleum products such as jet fuel and gasoline, which account for 4% and 10% of production respectively, but the company has been able to rebalance some production to diesel and naphtha to produce petrochemicals used in packaging.

To fight the virus Thailand declared a state of emergency and curbs on movement between its provinces, as well as a nationwide night-time curfew, along with a ban on incoming international passenger flights.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing PE and PP.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 383,760 tonnes in the first two month of 2020, up by 14% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments increased due to the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 192,760 tonnes in January-February 2020, down by 6% year on year. Homopolymer PP accounted for the main decrease in imports.

IRPC, part of state-owned PTT Pcl, expects prices to bottom out by end of the second quarter and recover in the second half of the year, but run rates would were unlikely to return to previous targets.
MRC

Unplanned outage reported at No. 1 PP unit of Dongguan Grand Resource Science and Tech

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Dongguan Grand Resource Science and Tech, has shut its No. 1 polypropylene (PP) unit for an unplanned maintenance, according to Apic-online.

A Polymerupdate source in China informed that the company halted operations at the unit on May 17, 2020. The unit is expected to remain off-line for a period of around 3-4 days.

Located in Guangdong, China, the No. 1 PP unit has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year.

As MRC reported earlier, the company conducted maintenance works at No. 1 and 2 PP units from 6 January to 16 January, 2020. Located in Guangdong, China, the PP plant comprising two units have a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year each.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, PP shipments to the Russian market was 267,630 tonnes in January-March 2020, down 20% year on year. Homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers accounted for the main decrease in imports.

Dongguan Grand Resource Science and Technology Co Ltd is owned by Juzhengyuan Energy (Shenzhen, Guangdong, China). On 26 October 2019, Dongguan Grand Resource’s (Dongguan, Guangdong, China) integrated complex for polypropylene production in Dongguan officially started up.
MRC