Crude hits 10-week high as economic restarts prompt demand optimism

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude futures settled higher amid signs that the continued reopening of economies in the US and Europe could bring balance to oversupplied oil markets in coming weeks, reported S&P Global.

NYMEX July WTI settled USD1.10 higher at USD24.35/b and ICE July Brent climbed 64 cents on the day to finish at USD36.17/b. Front-month WTI and Brent was last higher on March 10.

Oil demand outlooks continue to improve as more state and local governments ease restrictions on non-essential travel and trade aimed at slowing the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

"Crude prices continue to benefit from a relative smooth reopening of the global economy and as the oil market appears on target to reach balance next month," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya said.

Restrictions on non-essential travel and trade have been eased or lifted in all 50 US states as of late last week, though major metro areas, including Los Angeles and New York City, remain on lockdown.

Japan on Tuesday formally ended its national state of emergency, according to media reports, while British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that non-essential shops in England could reopen on June 15.

Refineries in China, generally considered as a model for post-lockdown economic recovery, have increased throughput and some have suspended product exports as domestic demand rises.

NYMEX June ULSD settled up 88 points at 99.08 cents/gal and June RBOB was up 1.07 cents at USD1.0489/gal.

NYMEX WTI has surge 170% from month ago levels, and is approaching levels where some US producers may see value in starting shut-in production, potentially capping further upside price movement.

If crude stabilizes in the USD30s/b, producers should be able to not only bring back selected wells they deem economic but even drill and complete new ones for future production, analysts said.

"I think starting in July we could see a lot of the shut-ins (wells) start to come back," said Bernadette Johnson, vice president of market intelligence for data provider Enverus. "The order in which this works is that demand (for oil) has to come back, which allows refiners to buy more crude, start ramping refinery runs and sell more gasoline and diesel. Then shut-ins come back on line."

But according to Commerzbank's head of commodity research, Eugen Weinberg, it is questionable whether the latest price rise will already help the US shale oil sector in any decisive manner in the short term.

"Its financing problems simply appear too great: the research company Rystad Energy estimates that leading companies would probably need to write off just shy of $40 billion at present. Rystad believes that up to 250 firms in the sector could therefore be driven into insolvency by the end of 2021 if oil prices do not recover any further," he said in a daily note. "Consequently, the response of shale oil companies to the latest upswing in prices is likely to be only muted, for exploration, drilling and commissioning of oil wells require start-up funding," he added.

As MRC informed previously, global oil consumption cut by up to a third. What happens next in the oil market depends on how quickly and completely the global economy emerges from lockdown, and whether the recessionary hit lingers through the rest of this year and into 2021.

Earlier this year, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

We remind that, in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 557,060 tonnes in the first three month of 2020, up by 7% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments rose because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. Demand for LDPE subsided. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market was 267,630 tonnes in January-March 2020, down 20% year on year. Homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers accounted for the main decrease in imports.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Hanbang Petrochemical, has taken off-stream its No. 2 purified terephthalic acid (PTA) unit for unspecified reason, according to Apic-online.

A polymerupdate source in China informed that, the company has halted operations at the unit on May 19, 2020. The unit is slated to remain off-line for about two weeks.

Located in Jiangyin, China, the No. 2 PTA plant comprising of two units, with a production capacity of 2.2 million mt/year each.

As MRC informed previously, in March 2016, Hanbang Petrochemical successfully started up its second PTA at Jiangyin, Jiangsu. The plant has two production lines, each with an annual capacity of 1.1 million mt/year.

PTA is used to produce polyethylene terephthalate (PET), which, in its turn, is used in the manufacturing of plastic bottles, films, packaging containers, in the textile and food industries.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, March estimated PET consumption in Russia was 65,3700 tonnes, up by 1% year on year. Russia's estimated PET consumption decreased in January-March 2020 by 3% year on year to 175,170 tonnes.

Hanbang Petrochemical, also known as China Prosperity Jiangyin Petrochemical, is situated in Jiangyin city within China's Jiangsu province.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The United Arab Emirates will cut its oil output by 100,000 barrels per day more in June than its commitments under the OPEC+ pact, its energy minister said on Monday, joining Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in announcing new crude supply reductions, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.

"In support of efforts led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to further restore stability to energy markets, the UAE has committed to undertake an additional voluntary cut of 100,000 barrels per day in the month of June," Suhail al-Mazrouei said in a statement.

As MRC repoted before, in the first week of May, 2020, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began a gradual restart of its Ruwais oil refinery complex after a scheduled maintenance shutdown. The Ruwais complex, which has capacity of 835,000 barrels per day, was shut down early this year, the ADNOC spokesman said.

We also remind that in late July 2019, ADNOC said its Ruwais refinery west cracker was offline for maintenance.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 557,060 tonnes in the first three month of 2020, up by 7% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments rose because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. Demand for LDPE subsided. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market was 267,630 tonnes in January-March 2020, down 20% year on year. Homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers accounted for the main decrease in imports.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Celanese Corporation, a global chemical and specialty materials company, has declared a quarterly cash dividend of USD0.62 per share on its common stock, payable May 7, 2020, as per the company's press release.

The dividend is payable to stockholders of record as of April 27, 2020.

As MRC informed previously, Celanese Corporation, a global chemical and specialty materials company, has restarted its vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) unit in Singapore. The company has resumed operations at the unit on March 16, 2020. The unit was shut since February 4, 2020 following a fire at the site. Located in Jurong Island, Singapore, the unit has a production capacity of 210,000 mt/year.

VAM is the main feedstock for the production of ethylene-vinyl-acetate (EVA).

According to MRC's DataScope report, February EVA imports to Russia rose by 9,83% year on year to 3,107 tonnes from 2,829 tonnes a year earlier, and overall imports of this grade of ethylene copolymer into the Russian Federation increased in January-February 2020 by 8,36% year on year to 6,194 tonnes (5,716 tonnes a year earlier).

Celanese Corporation is a global technology leader in the production of differentiated chemistry solutions and specialty materials used in most major industries and consumer applications. Based in Dallas, Celanese employs approximately 7,700 employees worldwide and had 2019 net sales of USD6.3 billion.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Russian natural gas flows delivering into Germany via the Yamal pipeline have stopped, just days after a long-standing transportation agreement between Russia and Poland expired, data from receiving German Transmission System Operator Gascade shows, said S&P Global.

The former agreement had previously facilitated direct supply to Poland, the transportation of volumes via Poland, and the construction of the pipeline itself, but finally came to end on May 17 after 26 years, with transportation being supported by substantial spot capacity purchases since the agreement's expiration.

Gascade reported that flows has stopped completely at the beginning of gas day May 26, following a ramp-down during the long weekend preceding it, with metered volumes around 21 million cu m/d on May 23, and just 1.1 million cu m/d May 24-25.

Poland's gas market has now entered a new era of liberalization, with capacity markets now governed the European Union's Capacity Allocation Mechanism Network Code, which permits legacy contracts for reasons of infrastructure improvement and security of supply, but forbids the renewal of such agreements.

Market sources have said they had considered the transport route to be Russian gas giant Gazprom's point of portfolio optimization, although the company was not immediately available for comment.

The cessation of flows through Yamal has also affected flows downstream, with Slovakian TSO reporting entries at the Czech Lanzhot border of just 9 million cu m/d, down from 37 million cu m/d on May 22, and Slovakian exit into Austria at Baumgarten dropping to 91 million cu m/d from 121 million cu m/d in the same timeframe.

As MRC reported previously, in early January, 2020, Gazprom Export and Gazprom Armenia signed an additional agreement to the contract for Russian gas supplies to the Republic of Armenia. In accordance with the agreement, the price of natural gas at the border between Georgia and Armenia will not change starting from January 1, 2020, and will remain at the level of 2019. Gazprom Armenia, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gazprom, is focused on natural gas supplies to the Armenian market. In addition, the company transports, stores, distributes and sells natural gas, as well as upgrades and expands the gas transmission system and underground gas storage facilities in the Republic of Armenia. The contract between Gazprom Export and Gazprom Armenia for the supplies of up to 2.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year will be in effect until the end of 2020.

Ethylene is the main feedstock for the production of polyethylene (PE).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 557,060 tonnes in the first three month of 2020, up by 7% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments rose because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. Demand for LDPE subsided.

MRC