COVID-19 - News digest as of 04.06.2020

1. COVID-19 economic shock, capacity overhang to pressure petchem margins, stall investment

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The worldwide economic shock due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and a major petrochemical production capacity overhang could mean weak industry margins and low plant utilization rates for several years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA; Paris), said Chemweek. The wide-ranging annual benchmark analysis by the IEA in its world energy investment report also includes a forecast for the largest annual decline in energy investment on record in 2020, with the total to plunge by $400 billion compared to capital spending in 2019.




MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- BASF and its commercial partner Seednet have confirmed Australian growers will have access to Ascot, the first BASF-bred wheat seed, in 2021. Selected for its yield, quality, and agronomic adaptability, Ascot is the first in a series of wheat varieties to be commercialised by BASF nationally, said BASF.

This innovation is the result of almost a decade of research at BASF’s Wheat and Oilseed Breeding Centre in Longerenong, Victoria. "We see the development of new varieties as the key to increasing productivity,” said Rob Hall, Seeds & Traits Business Head Asia Pacific, BASF. “Ascot will be the first release from our wheat breeding program and is the result of our investment in research at Longerenong. We look forward to producing a range of exciting wheat varieties in the next few years."

Ascot has shown excellent yield potential during development and is produced for BASF and Seednet by Australian Grain and Forage (AGF) Seeds in the Central Highlands of Victoria. Growing exceptionally well in the region, Ascot will be suited to farmers with similar growing conditions, in the recommended growing area, covering eastern South Australia, central Victoria and southern New South Wales, for the 2021 season.

Each Australian BASF wheat variety will be named in honor of a local industry pioneer. Ascot was named after James Fry, a gold rush miner who switched to growing and milling wheat in the 1850s. At Fry’s Ascot Mill, located only a few kilometers from where the BASF seeds are cultivated, he experimented with new varieties to increase the viability of wheat crops for the region.

"We think it’s very appropriate to acknowledge early innovators in this way. We want to recognize that everyone who is working to move local agriculture forward today, is building on the work of previous generations – people who had a vision of what could be achieved through a combination of boldness, imagination and sheer persistence," added Hall.

As MRC informed earlier, BASF kicked off the piling work of the first plants of its smart Verbund project in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, China. This came as another important milestone in the development of the company’s USD10 billion investment project since its official commencement in November 2019. The first plants will produce engineering plastics and thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) to serve the increasing needs of various growth industries in the southern China market and throughout Asia.

We remind that BASF has restarted its No. 1 steam cracker following a maintenance turnaorund. Thus, the company resumed operations at the plant on September 30, 2019. The plant was shut for maintenance in mid-August, 2019. Located at Ludwigshafen in Germany, the No. 1 cracker has an ethylene production capacity of 235,000 mt/year and a propylene production capacity of 125,000 mt/year.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing PE and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 557,060 tonnes in the first three month of 2020, up by 7% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments rose because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. Demand for LDPE subsided. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market was 267,630 tonnes in January-March 2020, down 20% year on year. Homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers accounted for the main decrease in imports.

BASF is the leading chemical company. It produces a wide range of chemicals, for example solvents, amines, resins, glues, electronic-grade chemicals, industrial gases, basic petrochemicals and inorganic chemicals. The most important customers for this segment are the pharmaceutical, construction, textile and automotive industries. BASF generated sales of EUR59 billion in 2019.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- At least five workers died and around 50 suffered severe burn injuries after a mysterious explosion took place in Yashashvi Rasayan Private Ltd chemical factory at Dahej in Bharuch Wednesday, as thick smoke billowed out of the plant, said Indianexpress.

The injured have been admitted in Bharuch civil hospital and two other private hospitals. The explosion was so loud that it was heard up to a three kilometre radius. As a precautionary measure, the district administration officials has shifted around 4,800 people staying in two neighbouring villages. Fire tenders have been rushed to the spot to control the blaze.

According to Bharuch district disaster management authorities, hundreds of workers were present inside Yashashvi Rasayan at Lakhi village on Wednesday afternoon. Due to some unknown reason during a chemical process between two containers a reaction took place leading to a blast. The firm manufactures 20 types of chemical components.

Soon after the blast, some of the workers managed to come out of the factory and informed the managers and owners. Fire officials immediately reached the spot, along with the Disaster Management team of Bharuch district collector. Subsequently, a rescue operation was carried out from the factory premises. Police have initiated a probe into the incident.

Bharuch District collector M D Modia said, “We have sent our high level officials to the spot to know how the blast had taken place. The fire department are trying to douse the flames. At present around 50 workers were injured and they are been treated in Bharuch civil hospital and two private hospitals. We have evacuated 3000 villagers from Lakhi village and 1800 from Luvara village, to safer places, as a precautionary measure as there are few other chemical companies. Once the fire is brought under the control, we will shift them back."


Bharuch District Superintendent of police Rajendrasinh Chudasma said, “We have come to know that five bodies had been found inside the factory premises, but still fire staff is battling with fire flames. Once the fire is brought under control the exact picture will come out. Police are also present at the spot and are talking to people to get information. It will take after couple of hours. Some of the injured ones undergoing treatment in the hospitals are also critical."

As MRC informed earlier, in January 2020, a fire broke out the Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited's (BPCL) plant in Mahul area of suburban Chembur. The blaze erupted in an air compressor at the main gate of the BPCL plant.

As MRC informed previously, BPCL plans to set up a petrochemicals unit at its Bina refinery in Madhya Pradesh as part of its Rs25,000 crore expansion plan for the refinery. The petrochemical unit, which will include a 1.5 mln tpa naphtha cracker, is expected to cost Rs6,000-7,000 crore.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing PE and PP.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 383,760 tonnes in the first two month of 2020, up by 14% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments increased due to the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 192,760 tonnes in January-February 2020, down by 6% year on year. Homopolymer PP accounted for the main decrease in imports.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC), Thailand's largest petrochemical maker, is planning to acquire new assets related to specialty polymer production during the recession, said Bangkokpost.

President and chief executive Kongkrapan Intarajang said yesterday that the company foresees a decline in asset value in the coming year, so it will consider asset acquisitions around the globe.

He did not specify regions or name firms. Many specialty polymer makers are suffering from a lack of liquidity during the coronavirus pandemic because purchase orders have dropped significantly.

"The new assets we plan to acquire will enhance our competitiveness and add value to existing downstream petrochemical products," Mr Kongkrapan said.

As MRC informed earlier, PTT Global Chemical Public Co Ltd (PTTGC) has shut its one of HDPE units for a planned maintenance since 25 May 2020. Based in Map Ta Phut, Thailand, the HDPE plant is having a production capacity of 300,000 tons/year. The HDPE plant is expected to remain offstream until 9 June 2020. Meanwhile the other 200,000 tons/year HDPE plant is still operating.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, April estimated HDPE consumption in Russia fell to 69,130 tonnes from 78,220 tonnes a month earlier. ZapSibNeftekhim significantly increased its export sales to China. Overall HDPE imports to the Russian market totalled 377,450 tonnes in the first four months of 2020, which corresponds to the last year's figure. Production increased significantly, and exports also grew by 5 times.

PTT Global Chemical is a leading player in the petrochemical industry and owns several petrochemical facilities with a combined capacity of 8.45 million tonnes a year.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures were trading lower in mid-morning trade in Asia on June 4 as uncertainty crept up on the market amid reports that OPEC+ talks were bogged down over quota compliance, said S&P Global.

At 10:24 am Singapore time, ICE Brent August crude futures was 47 cents/b (1.18%) lower from the settle on June 3 at USD39.32/b, while the NYMEX July light sweet crude contract was 69 cents/b (2.1%) lower at USD36.60/b.

OPEC+ had floated the idea of moving forward the meeting to June 4, from its previously scheduled June 9-10, but no announcement has been made so far as compliance discussions continue.

Saudi Arabia is insisting on firm commitments from other members to stick to their production quotas, according to multiple sources involved in the discussions, Platts reported previously.

Those who have violated their quota caps are being pressured to slash output by the volume exceeded in the coming months to compensate for this, the sources told Platts.

"Saudi Arabia and Russia are demanding that fellow members stop cheating on quotas before any agreement is reached," ANZ analysts said in a note June 4. "This has taken an early OPEC+ alliance meeting off the table, with the originally scheduled one for June 9-10 also at risk," the analysts added.

The recent price rally has also raised concerns over whether shale production will rebound. "The main problem for OPEC+ is not so much compliance from small producers, rather its the potential for shale production to rebound," AxiCorp's chief global markets strategist Stephen Innes said in a note June 4.

"The sharper price recovery has raised some concerns among OPEC+ producers that highly price-agile US producers will turn on the taps quickly and eat into OPEC+ share of the pie," Innes added.

Meanwhile, US commercial crude stocks fell 2.08 million barrels to 532.35 million barrels during the week ended May 29, US EIA data released June 3 showed.

Nonetheless, this was offset by indications of still tepid demand, analysts said. Total product supplied -- a proxy for refined product demand -- fell 890,000 b/d to 15.07 million b/d during the period, the EIA data showed.

As MRC informed previously, global oil consumption cut by up to a third. What happens next in the oil market depends on how quickly and completely the global economy emerges from lockdown, and whether the recessionary hit lingers through the rest of this year and into 2021.

Earlier this year, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

We remind that, in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 557,060 tonnes in the first three month of 2020, up by 7% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments rose because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. Demand for LDPE subsided. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market was 267,630 tonnes in January-March 2020, down 20% year on year. Homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers accounted for the main decrease in imports.

MRC