BP to write off up to USD17.5 billion on lower long-term prices, COVID-19

MOSCOW (MRC) -- BP says it expects to take an estimated USD13.0-17.5 billion hit in non-cash impairments and write-offs in the second quarter of 2020 after lowering its long-term assumptions for oil and gas prices, as per Chemweek.

With the COVID-19 pandemic have continued during the second quarter, BP also “now sees the prospect of the pandemic having an enduring impact on the global economy, with the potential for weaker demand for energy for a sustained period,” it says. As part of its ongoing strategy development, BP has been “reviewing its portfolio and its capital development plans,” with this review informed by its views of the long-term price environment and its balanced investment criteria, according to the company.

BP says it has now extended the period of its long-term price assumptions to 2050, as well as lowering them. It adds that as part of its long-term strategic planning, and in the context of its continuing focus on capital discipline, it is also reviewing its intent to develop some of its exploration intangible assets.

Together, these actions will lead to estimated aggregate non-cash impairment charges and write-offs in the second quarter of USD13.0-17.5 billion post-tax, it says. Non-cash, pretax impairment charges against property, plant and equipment are estimated will be USD8.0-11.0 billion, while write-offs of exploration intangibles are estimated at USD8.0–10.0 billion. Further information on the figures will be in BP’s second-quarter results due out on 4 August, it says.

BP’s revised investment appraisal long-term price assumptions now average around USD55/bbl for Brent crude and USD2.90/million British thermal units (MMBtu) for Henry Hub gas for the period 2021-2050, it states. For the next 10 years, the company’s revised average price assumptions for Brent crude and Henry Hub gas are approximately 30% and 16% lower, respectively, than given in its 2019 annual report, it says. The revised assumptions are also lower, on average, by approximately 27% and 31%, respectively, for the period 2020-2050, it adds.

The lower price assumptions are also considered by BP to be "broadly in line with a range of transition paths consistent with the Paris climate goals,” it notes. "BP’s management also has a growing expectation that the aftermath of the pandemic will accelerate the pace of transition to a lower-carbon economy and energy system, as countries seek to "build back better” so that their economies will be more resilient in the future," BP says.

As part of BP’s ambition to become a net zero company by 2050 or before, announced earlier this year, it has been reviewing its price assumptions over a longer horizon, with that work “informed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which increasingly looks as if it will have an enduring economic impact,” says Bernard Looney, BP’s CEO. Aside from resetting its price outlook, the company is also reviewing its development plans, he says. "All that will result in a significant charge in our upcoming results, but I am confident that these difficult decisions - rooted in our net zero ambition and reaffirmed by the pandemic - will better enable us to compete through the energy transition," he says.

According to BP’s first-quarter results, the value of its property, plant and equipment was put at USD130.2 billion, with oil and gas properties making up USD88.6 billion of the amount, while intangible assets were put at USD15.5 billion, USD14.2 billion of which related to exploration intangibles, it says.

BP announced last week it would slash its operating costs by USD2.5 billion in 2021 and cut about 10,000 jobs, mostly before the end of this year, due to the collapse in oil demand caused by COVID-19 and as part of its lower-carbon strategy.

As MRC informed before, BP has entered into an agreement to license its latest generation technology for the production of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) to China’s Dongying Weilian Chemical Co., Ltd. Weilian Chemical is a subsidiary of Dongying United Petrochemical Co., Ltd, one of the leading manufacturers and distributors of petroleum and petrochemical products in China. Weilian Chemical intends to build a 2.5 million tonnes per annum PTA production unit at the Dongying Port Economic Development Zone in eastern Shandong province, adding to Dongying United Petrochemical’s existing refineries and paraxylene (PX) facilities portfolio.

PTA is used to produce polyethylene terephthalate (PET), which, in its turn, is used in the manufacturing of plastic bottles, films, packaging containers, in the textile and food industries.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, April total estimated PET consumption virtually did not change year on year, totalling 60,840 tonnes (in April 2019 - 60,980 tonnes). 235,160 tonnes of PET chips were processed in Russia in January-April 2020.

BP is one of the world's leading international oil and gas companies, providing its customers with fuel for transportation, energy for heat and light, retail services and petrochemicals products for everyday items.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- BASF and Corteva on Friday filed separate motions to intervene in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit case challenging the EPA registration of the dicamba herbicides marketed by Bayer as XtendiMax, BASF as Engenia, and Corteva as FeXapan, said Chemweek.

Farmers and commercial operators may use existing stocks of XtendiMax, Engenia, and FeXapan that were in their possession as of 3 June 2020, the date of the court’s decision. Use must be consistent with the products' previously approved labels and may not continue after 31 July 2020.

BASF says it made the decision to intervene after considering the financial impact vacating the registration has had on farmers at a time when farmers have less than a month to protect millions of acres threatened by herbicide-resistant weeds. The EPA issued a cancellation order that stopped distribution or sale of these three dicamba products on 8 June.

“Taking this action during the height of the application season gives no regard to the significant investments farmers have made in their businesses and leaves them without viable options for the growing season,” said Paul Rea, senior vice president, BASF Agricultural Solutions North America. “Farming is difficult even in the best of times and remains challenging. Making this decision now, when weed resistance continues to threaten farming operations, is disastrous for our customers. Farmers have counted on applications of dicamba-based products to control troublesome weeds for decades, and they continue to need these tools now and in the future.”

Corteva was not a party to the lawsuit, and until 3 June, the case appeared to involve only the XtendiMax registration. The Ninth Circuit Court, however, vacated EPA’s registration of XtendiMax, Engenia, and Corteva’s registration for DuPont FeXapan with VaporGrip Technology, Corteva said. “Corteva is seeking to intervene to preserve our rights and to support the rights of customers to use the impacted dicamba weed control technologies. We believe dicamba is an effective weed management tool for farmers when used according to the label. We also seek to preserve the role of the U.S. EPA to administer the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide & Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), including granting or cancelling crop protection product registrations, for the benefit of agriculture and society,” Corteva says.

Bayer has welcomed EPA’s swift action. “XtendiMax and the other low-volatility dicamba products are vital tools that many growers rely on to safely, successfully, and sustainably protect their crops from weeds. Our top priority is making sure all our customers have the support they need to have a successful season…We will continue working with the EPA, growers, academics, and others to provide long-term access to this important tool,” Bayer says.

As MRC informed earlier, BASF announced that it will close its manufacturing facility in Erie in 2021. BASF produces process catalysts used primarily in the petrochemical industry. According to BASF, most production operations will cease by the end of 2020. The facility will continue to fulfill confirmed customer requests through the first quarter of 2021 and final decommissioning and demolition work are anticipated through mid-2022.

We remind that BASF has restarted its No. 1 steam cracker following a maintenance turnaorund. Thus, the company resumed operations at the plant on September 30, 2019. The plant was shut for maintenance in mid-August, 2019. Located at Ludwigshafen in Germany, the No. 1 cracker has an ethylene production capacity of 235,000 mt/year and a propylene production capacity of 125,000 mt/year.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing PE and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 557,060 tonnes in the first three month of 2020, up by 7% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments rose because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. Demand for LDPE subsided. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market was 267,630 tonnes in January-March 2020, down 20% year on year. Homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers accounted for the main decrease in imports.

BASF is the leading chemical company. It produces a wide range of chemicals, for example solvents, amines, resins, glues, electronic-grade chemicals, industrial gases, basic petrochemicals and inorganic chemicals. The most important customers for this segment are the pharmaceutical, construction, textile and automotive industries. BASF generated sales of EUR59 billion in 2019.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- US crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly in the first week of June to an all-time high as refiners boosted imports, particularly from Saudi Arabia, while exports dropped to lows not seen since November, reported Reuters.

The Energy Information Administration also said on Wednesday that refined product demand ticked up, but still remained far below normal levels.

Crude inventories rose 5.7 million barrels in the week to June 5 to 538.1 million barrels, most in history, not including the US strategic reserves, EIA data showed.

Shipments booked during the Saudi-Russia price war from March and April, when the kingdom ramped up exports sending US prices to negative-USD40 a barrel, have been arriving in the United States. Refiners’ imports of Saudi barrels have averaged more than 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) for three consecutive weeks, which has not happened since 2013.

Crude inventories in the Gulf Coast import-export and refining hub jumped 6.9 million barrels to a record 303.7 million barrels. US exports fell to 2.4 million bpd, their lowest since November, so overall net crude imports rose by 1 million bpd, the EIA said.

"These are bearish numbers really. Crude (stocks) rose again despite being stymied by subdued demand. We are down significantly from a year ago today and saw builds in products as well," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Clipper Data.

Gasoline inventories rose 866,000 barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 71,000-barrel rise. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.6 million barrels.

Product supplied, a proxy for demand, showed gasoline consumption rebounded to 7.9 million bpd, still roughly 20% below the year-ago period, but an improvement from recent weeks. Overall gasoline demand is down 16% from a year ago.

Refinery utilization rates rose by 1.3 percentage points to 73.1% of capacity.

The market was lower after the data. US crude futures fell 2% to USD38.18 a barrel, while Brent was down 1.4% to USD40.60 a barrel.

As MRC informed previously, global oil consumption cut by up to a third in Q1 2020. What happens next in the oil market depends on how quickly and completely the global economy emerges from lockdown, and whether the recessionary hit lingers through the rest of this year and into 2021.

Earlier this year, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

We remind that, in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 721,290 tonnes in the first four month of 2020, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments grew partially because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 347,440 tonnes in January-April 2020 (calculated by the formula production minus export plus import). Supply exclusively of PP random copolymer increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The US spot benzene market has been under tremendous pressure over the last two months as energy prices sank and derivative demand disappeared for many segments as COVID-19 forced lockdowns in North America, said Chemweek.

After being dragged down by a confluence of factors, prices may have begun to stage a rebound that could be sustained for the next few months. In April and May, refineries in North America opted to run their reformers harder than other units within the refinery, while lowering operations at their crude distillation units and fluid catalytic crackers to roughly 70%, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). As a result, aromatics extraction units maintained operating rates of 80% and above despite downstream styrene, cyclohexane, and methylene di-para-phenylene isocyanate (MDI) plants curtailing their rates due to poor demand.

Even with prices sinking in the US, a worldwide glut of benzene inspired a flood of imports to the US Gulf Coast (USGC) in April that arrived in May. By the end of May, benzene was trading at a discount to RBOB gasoline, something that has not happened since March 2009.

Unable to work cargoes into the depressed US market, producers in Asia sent benzene to China instead.

In May, Korea loaded less than 25,000 metric tonnes of benzene to send to the USGC and in the first 10 days of June there was no loading for the USGC. The last time South Korea did not load benzene during the first 10 days of the month loading window was in January 2019. The USGC is expected to see record-low benzene imports from Asia over the next three to four months.

Market sources agree that the key indicator being watched this month is the operating rate at downstream plants in the US that consume benzene. One styrene unit is restarting by the end of this month and propylene oxide-styrene monomer (POSM) plant rates are also increasing.

Styrene has been reportedly sold out through July, but if North America producers can’t export because customers in Asia stop buying it, plants in the US could lower rates again, limiting benzene’s rebound.

As MRC informed earlier, Russia's production of benzene was 110,000 tonnes in April 2020, compared to 133,000 tonnes a month earlier. Overall output of this product reached 505,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 1.7% year on year.

Benzene is a feedstock for the production of styrene monomer (SM), which, in its turn, is a feedstock for manufacturing polystyrene (PS).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, April estimated consumption of PS and styrene plastics in Russia was 36,170 tonnes, down by 12% year on year. Russia's estimated consumption of PS and styrene plastics totalled 157,110 tonnes in January-April 2020, down by 5% year on year.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- LyondellBasell, the world’s largest licensor of polyolefin technologies, says that Sinopec Hainan Refining & Chemical will use its Hostalen Advanced Cascade Process technology for a new 300 kilotonnes/year high density polyethylene (HDPE) facility to be built in Yangpu, Hainan Province, China, said Eog-asia.

"Multi-modal HDPE resins play a key role in addressing the growing demand for higher value polyethylene products,” said Neil Nadalin, Director of Licensing at LyondellBasell. Nadalin added: “The Hostalen ACP process is the leading low-pressure technology to deliver those benchmark polymer products."

The Sinopec Hainan HDPE plant will commence operations using Avant Z501 and Avant Z509 catalysts to produce a full range of multi-modal HDPE products.

With these new capacity additions, LyondellBasell says it has licensed over 8,500 kilotonnes/year of benchmark multi-modal HDPE resins.

The Hostalen ACP low-pressure slurry process technology manufactures high performance, multi-modal HDPE resins with an increased stiffness/toughness balance, impact resistance and high stress-cracking resistance used in pressure pipe, film and blow-molding applications.

According to MRC' ScanPlast, Russia's April estimated consumption of HDPE fell to 69,130 tonnes compared to 78,220 tonnes a month earlier. ZapSibNeftekhim significantly increased export sales to China. In the first four months of the year, the total supply of HDPE to the Russian market amounted to 377,450 tonnes, which corresponds to the figure a year earlier. Production volumes have grown significantly, and exports have also grown almost five times.

China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec Group) is a super-large petroleum and petrochemical enterprise group established in July 1998 on the basis of the former China Petrochemical Corporation. Sinopec Group"s key business activities include the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, petrochemicals and other chemical products, oil refining.
MRC