Crude settles lower as coronavirus spread hampers recovery

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude futures settled slightly lower June 23 as expectations of higher demand stemming from improved economic activity were offset by increases in coronavirus cases, as per S&P Global.

NYMEX August crude settled 36 cents lower at USD40.37/b, while ICE August Brent settled 45 cents lower at USD42.63/b.

In refined products, NYMEX July RBOB settled 81 points higher at USD1.2994/gal, and July ULSD settled at $1.203/gal, down 1.56 cents.

Economic indicators were supportive for the oil complex. Equities and oil climbed early in the session after the White House confirmed that the US-China trade deal was still on.

Also supportive was the IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index, which showed a slowing of the US economic downturn in June as states began to lift lockdowns imposed to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

"Despite many firms noting a rebound in client demand, some stated that renewals and requests for new business were historically muted. The rate of contraction nevertheless slowed notably, with manufacturers in particular registering only a fractional decrease," IHS Markit said in a release. "The downturn in new business from abroad also slowed significantly, as clients in key export markets increased their buying activity amid looser lockdown restrictions."

That followed an increase in European PMI readings.

"France's composite PMI rose to a four-month high of 51.3 while the heavyweight economy Germany clocked 45.8, also a four-month high," said Mihir Kapadia, CEO of Sun Global Investments.

However a full quarter of economic data will be needed to assess the full impact of the pandemics, while "as new clusters in Beijing and the US have shown, another peak cannot be ruled out especially during the winter months," Kapadia said.

Crack spreads have strengthened this month as the easing of restrictions is expected to bolster demand for refined products. The August ULSD crack spread against ICE Brent was trading around USD8.56/b late June 23, down from USD9.55/b June 17, but up from USD6.24/b June 1.

The August RBOB crack spread against ICE Brent was trading around USD11.73/b June 23, up from USD7.08/b June 1.

Also, the global crude glut appears to have eased for now, causing the deep contango structure in both NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent to narrow.

According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, global crude inventories at 5.229 billion barrels June 18 were down 55 million barrels on the month. That decline was driven primarily by a drop in crude in transit, rather than onshore or floating crude storage.

Still, the crude structure was looking less bearish, as OPEC and non-OPEC producers have cut output. The ICE front-month Brent crude contract ending June 23 at a roughly USD2.65/b discount to the twelfth-month contract, from a USD15.37/b discount April 21.

An increase in coronavirus cases in some areas threatens the petroleum recovery, although it is unclear that states would impose similar lockdown measures to those seen in April and May even if the pandemic spreads.

US President Donald Trump's coronavirus health advisor, Dr. Anthony Fauci, warned June 23 that states are seeing a "disturbing surge" in infections, according to a CNBC report.

South Korean health officials on June 22 announced that the country was going through a second wave of coronavirus. Initially lauded as a success story, fresh clusters since May have led to warnings that the pandemic would continue for more months.

The World Health Organization said June 22 that coronavirus cases were soaring in major countries, with "worrying increases" in Latin America, especially Brazil.

As MRC informed before, global oil consumption cut by up to a third in Q1 2020. What happens next in the oil market depends on how quickly and completely the global economy emerges from lockdown, and whether the recessionary hit lingers through the rest of this year and into 2021.

Earlier this year, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

We remind that, in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 721,290 tonnes in the first four month of 2020, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments grew partially because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 347,440 tonnes in January-April 2020 (calculated by the formula production minus export plus import). Supply exclusively of PP random copolymer increased.
MRC

Carbios starts construction in France of demonstration plant for PET recycling

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Green chemistry firm Carbios (St-Beauzire, France) says it has started construction of a plant near Lyon to demonstrate the company’s enzymatic recycling of waste polyethylene terephthalate (PET) plastics into monomers for repolymerization into PET, said Chemweek.

The first phase of operations is scheduled to be launched in June 2021, Carbios says. TechnipFMC is providing support and advice for the engineering and construction of the demonstration plant, it says.

Carbios says it aims to generate technical data from the plant that will allow it to “define the main parameters for each step of the enzymatic recycling process, on a sufficient scale to be able to plan the operation of future industrial units.” The goal is to eventually construct a full-scale industrial unit with an estimated production capacity of 50,000–100,000 metric tons/year for a licensee, it says.

The demonstration plant will validate the technical, environmental, and economic performance of the enzymatic recycling technology, with batches of monomers to be produced for technical and regulatory validation of recycled PET by future licensees, it adds.

"The demonstration unit allows us to test different waste streams, and to adapt certain steps of our process to the specification of collection systems," says Antoine Sevenier, industrial development director at Carbios.

The company is already collaborating with companies including L’Oreal, Nestle Waters, PepsiCo, and Suntory Beverage & Food. “Each of these, and many other global multi-national firms, have made ambitious commitments towards sustainable development. This demonstration plant will be a showcase site to validate the economic and technical performance of our process," says Carbios chief operating officer Martin Stephan.

According to MRC's ScanPlast, Russia's PET imports decreased by 35% in April to 11,200 tonnes against 17,400 tonnes in March; last April material imports amounted to 22,900 tonnes. Imports of Chinese injection moulding PET chips in Russia increased by 16% in January-April, compared with the same period a year ago and reached 40,400 tonnes. The same indicator in January-April 2019 amounted to 48,200 tonnes.
MRC

NOVA introduces biaxially-oriented PE film technology

MOSCOW (MRC) -- NOVA Chemicals (Calgary, Alberta, Canada) says it has developed a new technology for the production of high-density biaxially-oriented polyethylene (HD-BOPE) films, said Chemweek.

Biaxial orientation extends the physical characteristics of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) films, enabling the manufacture of fully recyclable high-performance film structures without mixing resin types.

“Brand owners and consumers are looking for easy-to-recycle packaging that prevents contamination and extends the shelf life of their products,” explains Alan Schrob, group manager/consumer and industrial films at Nova. “Our HD-BOPE technology provides an additional building block for converters to make recyclable multilayer films that perform as well as traditional mixed-material structures."

HD-BOPE films can be printed before they are laminated to a sealant film made from lower density polyethylene. Nova has been working with Bruckner Maschinenbau (Siegsdorf, Germany), a leading manufacturer of film stretching lines, to accelerate the development and commercialization of the technology. “We have been very pleased with the performance of Nova Chemicals’ products on our equipment and are getting positive feedback from the converters who are making film with it as well,” says Sebastian Ruhland, senior sales manager at Bruckner Maschinenbau. “We believe this technology will open completely new possibilities to provide PE films for 100% monomaterial packaging films as an answer to the recyclability challenges we’re facing."

As MRC informed earlier, Borealis AG and NOVA Chemicals Corporation has announced they have reached an agreement for Borealis to buy NOVA Chemicals’ 50% ownership interest in Novealis Holdings LLC (Novealis). Formed in 2018, Novealis is the joint venture between affiliates of Borealis and NOVA Chemicals, which subsequently formed a 50/50 joint venture with an affiliate of Total S.A. to launch Bayport Polymers LLC (Baystar) in Houston, Texas, US.

As MRC reported earlier, in January 2017, NOVA Chemicals announced the start up of its new world-scale linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) gas phase reactor at its Joffre, Alberta site.

Besides, NOVA Chemicals expanded ethylene production capacity by 20% at its cracker in Corunna, Ontario from the previous capacity of about 839,000 tpy. The expansion occurred between 2014 and 2018 and was part of a wave of expansions and upgrades to NOVA's existing facilities near Sarnia, Ontario. Other upgrades in the plan included a debottlenecking of the Moore low-density polyethylene (LDPE) line and a retrofit of the Moore high-density polyethylene (HDPE) line.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 721,290 tonnes in the first four month of 2020, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments grew partially because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim.

NOVA Chemicals Corporation is a plastics and chemical company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, and is wholly-owned ultimately by Mubadala Investment Company of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
MRC

Shell to write down up to USD22 billion as COVID-19 affects all business segments

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Shell provided an update of expected second-quarter results warning of the severe impact the COVID-19 pandemic is having on all segments, said Chemweek.

Oil production slowed, fuel sales fell, and shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and petrochemicals suffered. Reductions in long-term price forecasts will lead to write-downs to global assets of between USD15 billion and USD22 billion, Shell said ahead of quarterly results due on 30 July. Shell’s impairments are expected to have a pretax impact in the range of USD20 billion to USD27 billion.

The company says oil-product sales volumes will be 3.5–4.5 million barrels/day (b/d) in the second quarter, down from 6.6 million b/d a year earlier, on significant drop in demand because of the pandemic. Shell has revised its mid- and long-term pricing and refining margin outlook and expects gearing to increase by 3% due to the impairment charges.

Shell’s integrated gas production is expected to be between 880,000 and 910,000 b/d of oil equivalent, upstream production between 2.3 million and 2.4 million b/d of oil equivalent, and LNG liquefaction volumes at between 8.1 million and 8.5 million metric tons (MMt). Shell’s second-quarter refinery utilization is expected to be between 67% and 71% and chemical manufacturing plant utilization at between 75% and 79%. Chemicals sales volumes are expected to be between 3.4 MMt and 3.7 MMt.

Upstream is expected to account for up to USD6 billion of the impairments, largely related to Brazil and American shale, while integrated gas will take write-downs of USD8–9 billion. Oil products will take USD3–7 billion across the company’s refining portfolio.

Shell warns that second-quarter realized gross refining margins are expected to be significantly lower compared with the first quarter of this year. The company says the pandemic had forced a review of a significant portion of its upstream, integrated gas and refining assets. “The refining asset valuation updates reflect Shell’s strategy to reshape and focus its refining portfolio to support the decarbonization of its energy product mix, leveraging assets and value chains in key markets," the company says.

As MRC wrote before, in May 2020, CNOOC Oil & Petrochemicals Co. Ltd (CNOOC), Shell Nanhai B.V (Shell) and the Huizhou Government have announced a strategic cooperation agreement to further expand the CNOOC and Shell Petrochemical Company (CSPC) 50:50 joint venture in Huizhou, Guangdong Province, China.

The expansion is planned to serve the growing number of intermediate and performance chemicals customers in the key market of China, supplying products including SMPO, polyols, ethylene glycol, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP). These chemicals are used in a wide range of end products, in healthcare, construction, fabrics, packaging, transport and electronics. For the first time in Asia, Shell would apply its advanced technology for linear alpha olefins. The project is intended to include construction of a new 1.5 million-tonnes-per-year ethylene cracker, with the mega-site bringing economies of scale and enhanced competitiveness.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 721,290 tonnes in the first four month of 2020, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments grew partially because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 347,440 tonnes in January-April 2020 (calculated by the formula production minus export plus import). Supply exclusively of PP random copolymer increased.

Royal Dutch Shell plc is an Anglo-Dutch multinational oil and gas company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands and with its registered office in London, United Kingdom. It is the biggest company in the world in terms of revenue and one of the six oil and gas "supermajors". Shell is vertically integrated and is active in every area of the oil and gas industry, including exploration and production, refining, distribution and marketing, petrochemicals, power generation and trading.

MRC

Berry to invest in new melt-blown nonwoven production line in UK

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Berry Global Group (Evansville, Indiana) says it is investing in a new melt-blown nonwovens production line in the UK that will supply fabric to be used in the manufacture of protective face masks. No investment figure has been given, reported Chemweek.

The production line will be outfitted with Berry’s proprietary charging technology at one of the company’s UK facilities to increase capacity for the production of European-standard Type IIR and N99-equivalent FFP3 masks, it says. The company is collaborating with The Medicom Group, which has a long-term contractual agreement with the UK government to supply the masks and is scheduled to open a new UK-based production facility later this year.

The investments in the new production facilities have been enabled through a long-term contractual commitment by the UK government, says Berry. “This move highlights the focus governments are placing on securing a supply chain that helps ensure a local supply of personal protective equipment,” it says.

Berry said in May it was expanding its melt-blown nonwovens production capacity in Berlin, Germany, to help meet the surge in demand for protective face masks due to COVID-19, while the previous month it also said it was accelerating investment in another production line at Biesheim, France, for the supply of high-efficiency filtration media for masks.

As MRC wrote before, in November 2019, Berry Global Group announced a collaboration with SABIC to drive the innovation and use of polyolefin resins made from chemical recycling.

We remind that in the first week of September 2019, SABIC Europe, an affiliate of SABIC, started maintenance work at its cracker No.3 at Geleen site in the Netherlands. The planned maintenance is slated to last around 2 months. The company operates two steam crackers in Geleen which are capable of producing 1,250,000 tons/year of ethylene and 675,000 tons/year of propylene in total.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 721,290 tonnes in the first four month of 2020, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments grew partially because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 347,440 tonnes in January-April 2020 (calculated by the formula production minus export plus import). Supply exclusively of PP random copolymer increased.
MRC