MOSCOW (MRC) -- Moody’s today published a downgrade of BASF’s long-term and short-term credit ratings from “A2/P-1/review for downgrade” to “A3/P-2/outlook stable”, reported Chemweek.
The reasons for these changes include the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related uncertainty. “We have taken note of Moody’s decision, and we will strive to come back to a solid A rating at Moody’s. At S&P and Fitch, BASF continues to have a solid A rating. Despite the downgrade by one notch at Moody’s, BASF enjoys good credit ratings, especially compared with competitors in the chemical industry,” BASF says in a statement.
Moody’s says the downgrade reflects BASF's rating ratios that had already been weak for the A2 rating when entering the COVID-19 outbreak, which also limits the potential for improvement in case of a recovery in 2021. “With expected 2021 numbers the company would not be in line with requirements to maintain an A2 rating, such as a Moody's-adjusted EBITDA margin that Moody's expects to reach levels of only around 13% in 2021; high gross leverage with debt/EBITDA of 3.7 times (x) in 2021, even though this is still a considerable improvement from the expected 4.5x in 2020; and the emerging negative free-cash-flow (FCF) profile that Moody's expects will become a feature of BASF as the company embarks on a large capital spending program in Asia and in the area of battery materials coupled with an expectation of continued high dividend payouts. Moody's estimates negative FCF of about EUR1.0 billion in 2020, around €2.0 billion in 2021, and EUR2.8 billion in 2022.”
The peak investments for BASF's planned seventh Verbund site in southern China, on which the company will spend up to USD10 billion until 2030, will occur between 2022 and 2024. Moody's expects that the gap to cover negative FCF will be funded primarily with divestment proceeds. These will largely stem from the IPO proceeds and subsequent disposals of stakes in Wintershall Dea, in which BASF holds a 72.7% stake.
Moody’s says that BASF's liquidity remains solid. The company has taken the decision of holding extra cash in excess of its usual cash balance in the magnitude of EUR2.0-3.0 billion to bolster liquidity in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. As the uncertainty from the outbreak recedes and the economy normalizes, BASF will over time reduce its excess cash balance toward levels of EUR2.0 billion and EUR2.5 billion. The company signed additional short-term EUR3.0 billion credit facilities maturing in 2021 and accessed the European commercial paper market. In May, BASF issued EUR2.0 billion of long-term bonds including its first green bond, to refinance short-term debt. “The next bond matures in November 2020 and we expect BASF to repay the EUR1.0-billion bond. The company at its June 2020 AGM ruled out any share buybacks for 2020,” Moody’s says.
The A3 rating also takes into account BASF's exposure to more volatile petrochemicals and intermediates as well as its plastics and monomers businesses, which in 2019 together accounted for about 36% of group sales. These segments were the main contributor to declining earnings in 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 when earnings before interest and tax before special items of these two segments fell by 43% and 35% year on year, respectively. The contribution from more resilient end markets such as agriculture, consumer goods, and health and nutrition has not been sufficient to offset the decline in BASF's commodity business. BASF's exposure to the transportation end market, which includes the automotive sector, ranges between 10% and 20%. Moody's does not assume a recovery to 2019 levels in the worldwide automotive market before 2023, which it says will structurally weigh on BASF.
As MRC informed earlier, an unexpected outage occurred at BASF Total Petrochemical’s joint-venture (JV) olefins unit at Port Arthur, Texas, last Thursday afternoon. The cause of the outage is being investigated, with a compressor shutdown cited as a possible factor, according to a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality filing. Total’s refinery near the olefins plant has also drastically reduced rates. The outage had little effect on Friday’s US spot ethylene market.
Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).
According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 721,290 tonnes in the first four month of 2020, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments grew partially because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 347,440 tonnes in January-April 2020 (calculated by the formula production minus export plus import). Supply exclusively of PP random copolymer increased.
BASF is the leading chemical company. It produces a wide range of chemicals, for example solvents, amines, resins, glues, electronic-grade chemicals, industrial gases, basic petrochemicals and inorganic chemicals. The most important customers for this segment are the pharmaceutical, construction, textile and automotive industries. BASF generated sales of EUR59 billion in 2019.
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