Crude oil futures rebound 2% on optimism over Trump recovery

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Optimism over the recovery of US President Donald Trump from a coronavirus infection boosted crude oil futures at the Oct. 5 Asia open, rebounding from Oct. 2's more than 4% slide, when news of his coronavirus diagnosis threw the oil market into disarray, reported S&P Global.

At 10:39 am Singapore time (0239 GMT), ICE Brent December crude futures were up 71 cents/b (1.81%) from the Oct. 2 settle at USD39.98/b, while the NYMEX November light sweet crude contract was 80 cents/b (2.16%) higher at USD37.85/b.

Both international crude benchmarks had dived 4.05% and 4.31% on the day on Oct. 2, with the ICE Brent settle at USD39.27/b and NYMEX at USD37.05/b.

"Oil prices nudged higher at the [Asia] open, tracking broader markets, after the (US) president's medical staff offered up an optimistic healthcare prognosis," AxiCorp's Chief Global Market Strategist Stephen Innes said in an Oct. 5 note.

The drop in crude futures on Oct. 2 came as the oil markets, which were already reeling from the continuing onslaught of bearish demand and supply factors, were further rattled by news that Trump had tested positive for coronavirus.

ANZ analysts in their Oct. 5 note said: "Futures have been under pressure for several weeks, as rising infection rates of coronavirus in Europe and the US have raised concerns about the continued rebound in economic activity. However, the announcement that President Trump and several other White House officials had contracted the virus reinforced this view, with Brent and WTI crude falling sharply in late trading on Friday."

However, with Trump's medical team giving increasingly optimistic assessments on his health Oct. 4, crude futures rebounded at Asia's open Oct. 5.

The outlook for oil remains bleak as the prospect of renewed lockdown restrictions amid a resurgence of the pandemic threatens to stall global economic recovery and depress oil demand, all while the OPEC+ alliance struggles to reduce supply through compliance with its production quotas.

Amid these unsupportive fundamentals, the trajectory of crude futures this week is expected to be sensitive to news flows on the status of coronavirus cases as well as the US stimulus package.

House speaker Nancy Pelosi said in an MSNBC interview on Oct. 2 that Trump's positive coronavirus diagnosis could encourage the Republicans to extend further support to a stimulus bill, with Trump himself calling for the approval of the bill in an Oct. 4 tweet.

As MRC informed earlier, global oil refiners reeling from months of lackluster demand and an abundance of inventories are cutting fuel production into the autumn because the recovery in demand from the impact of coronavirus has stalled, according to executives, refinery workers, and industry analysts. Refiners cut output by as much as 35% in spring as coronavirus lockdowns destroyed the need for travel. As lockdowns eased, refiners increased output slowly through late August. But in top fuel consumers the United States and elsewhere, refiners have been decreasing rates for the last several weeks in response to increased inventories, a sustained lack of demand, and in response to natural disasters.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall PE production totalled 1,712,400 tonnes in the first seven months of 2020, up by 58% year on year. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounted for the greatest increase in the output. At the same time, overall PP production in Russia increased in January-July 2020 by 24% year on year to 1,063,700 tonne. ZapSibNeftekhim accounted for the main increase in the output.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) has restarted its No.3 cracker in Mailiao after a planned shutdown, according to Chemweek.

The company started maintenance at the cracker on August 11, 2020. The cracker was brought on-line on 29 September, 2020.

Located at Mailiao in Taiwan, the No. 3 cracker has an ethylene production capacity of 1.2 million mt/year and propylene production capacity of 600,000 mt/year.

FPCC will run all three crackers at full capacity, expects favorable olefins market conditions in October, November.

As MRC wrote previously, Formosa took off-stream its No.2 cracker in Taiwan on 1 June, 2020. No reason for unplanned closure was given. The cracker was idle until 4 June. Located at Mailiao in Taiwan, the No.2 cracker has an ethylene production capacity of 1.03 million mt/year, propylene production capacity of 515,000 mt/year and butadiene production capacity of 162,000 mt/year.

Formosa, Asia's top naphtha importer, operates three naphtha crackers in Mailiao. These units have a total capacity of 2.93 million tpy of ethylene.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall PE production totalled 1,712,400 tonnes in the first seven months of 2020, up by 58% year on year. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounted for the greatest increase in the output. At the same time, overall PP production in Russia increased in January-July 2020 by 24% year on year to 1,063,700 tonne. ZapSibNeftekhim accounted for the main increase in the output.

Formosa Petrochemical is involved primarily in the business of refining crude oil, selling refined petroleum products and producing and selling olefins (including ethylene, propylene, butadiene and BTX) from its naphtha cracking operations. Formosa Petrochemical is also the largest olefins producer in Taiwan and its olefins products are mostly sold to companies within the Formosa Group. Among the company's chemical products are paraxylene (PX), phenyl ethylene, acetone and pure terephthalic acid (PTA). The company"s plastic products include acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) resins, polystyrene (PS), polypropylene (PP) and panlite (PC).
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Major Taiwanese producer, ), is planning to shut its acrylonitrile (ACN) plant in Kaohsiung on October 20 for a planned maintenance, according to S&P Global.

The turnaround at this plant with the capacity of 240,000 mt per year is expected to be conducted during one month.

ACN is a feedstock for the production of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, the estimated consumption decreased in January-June 2020 by 18% year on year in the Russian ABS sector, totalling 19,360 tonnes. 2,680 tonnes of ABS plastics were processed in Russia in June 2020.

China Petrochemical Development Corporation (CPDC) was established in 1969 as a state-owned enterprise under the supervision of the Ministry of Economic Affairs. In 1991, CPDC was listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, and in 1994 the company was privatized. CPDC is one of the business units of the Core Pacific Group. Its core business is in the production of petrochemical intermediates and related engineering plastics, synthetic resins, raw materials for chemical fiber and other derivative products.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- GAIL India Ltd has reportedly taken its polyethylene (PE) unit in Pata, Uttar Pradesh off-stream on 25 September 2020 following a ruptured pipeline at ONGC’s gas processing plant that disrupts feedstock supply to GAIL, according to CommoPlast with reference to market sources.

The unit has an annual capacity of 400,000 tons/year, which might remain shut for several days.

In the meantime, GAIL operates two other PE lines: a 210,000 tons/year high density polyethylene (HDPE)/linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) swing line and a standalone 100,000 tons/year HDPE line. There are no confirmed reports on the operation status of these units at the time of this report.

GAIL has slashed gas supplies by about 40% to its customers, mainly power and fertilizer companies following the incident.

As MRC reported earlier, on 24 September 2020, a fire broke out at the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) gas processing plant in Hazira, India with no casualty or injury reported. ONGC’s own petrochemical plant, namely ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL), is not affected by the incident as it is situated in a different location.

OPaL operates the petrochemical complex in Gujarat, India that houses a naphtha cracker with an annual output of 1.1 million tons/year of ethylene and 400,000 tons/year of propylene. Downstream units including a 340,000 tons/year PP line, a 360,000 tons/year HDPE/LLDPE swing line, and a 340,000 tons/year HDPE line.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall PE production totalled 1,712,400 tonnes in the first seven months of 2020, up by 58% year on year. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounted for the greatest increase in the output. At the same time, overall PP production in Russia increased in January-July 2020 by 24% year on year to 1,063,700 tonne. ZapSibNeftekhim accounted for the main increase in the output.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Three Arkema executives charged over a 2017 explosion and fire at the company’s Crosby, Texas organic peroxides plant during Hurricane Harvey have been acquitted, said Chemweek.

The indictment accused Arkema North America CEO Richard Rowe and plant manager Leslie Comardelle of playing a role in “recklessly” releasing chemicals into the air, putting residents and first responders at risk. An additional assault charge against former logistics executive Michael Keough was dropped last month.

Arkema called the trial an attempt to criminalize the impact of a natural disaster that Harris County itself was not prepared for. “While Arkema was found to have been prepared for a 500-year flood, our Crosby plant had a 5,000-20,000 year rainfall and the resulting flooding rose 30 inches above the 500-year flood level,” Arkema tells CW in a statement. “Our plant employees went to heroic lengths to protect the public, and when flooding overwhelmed their every effort, we proactively notified emergency responders and the public, days before the first fire started. We communicated extensively with the Unified Command that coordinated emergency response, and explicitly warned that emergency responders should wear respirators if they might be exposed to smoke from the fires. We cannot fathom why they did not do so, but it certainly was not for lack of warning.

The company added that it did not believe any indictment would have been granted without false information being presented to the grand jury. “The prosecutors in this case repeatedly, blatantly and unapologetically broke rules that are in place to protect us all by ensuring our fundamental right to a fair trial,” Arkema says. The statement added that the judge, Belinda Hill, twice found that the prosecutors had committed misconduct.

As MRC said earlier, Arkema announces the start-up of a new world-scale industrial adhesives plant in Japan. Those new capacities will enable Bostik to serve its Japanese customers in the continuously growing markets of diapers.

As MRC informed earlier, Russia's output of products from polymers grew in August 2020 by 4.1% year on year. However, this figure increased by 1.9% year on year in the first eight months of 2020. According to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, August production of unreinforced and non-combined films rose to 126,300 tonnes from 118,200 tonnes a month earlier. Output of films products grew in January-August 2020 by 8.3% year on year to 863,200 tonnes.
MRC