Refinery in Croatia to undergo maintenance from November

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Croatia's Rijeka refinery will be optimizing its operations from November "for a few months" and during that period will "perform regular technological activities at process units such as catalyst regeneration and preparation of these plants for the new processing cycle in 2021 through regular maintenance work," reported S&P Global with reference to the company's statement late October 7.

Earlier local media reported that the refinery will temporarily halt production between November and January due to reduced demand caused by the spring lockdown and a weak tourist season.

The company is not considering the closure of the refinery, and is continuing with the heavy residue upgrade, which includes building a delayed coker.

The company confirmed that it will continue "and if possible accelerate, work on our strategic Residue Upgrade project and the implementation of other capital projects that can be done only when the units are partially out of operation."

As MRC wrote previously, Croatia’s oil and gas firm INA said in July 2020 it aims to invest 250 million euros (USD282.4 million) to build a biorefinery in the central town of Sisak to help reduce its carbon footprint. The company, whose biggest shareholders are Hungary’s energy group MOL and the Croatian government, has applied for strategic project approval at Croatia’s ministry of economy and entrepreneurship. It is also seeking European Union funding, as the bloc of which Croatia and Hungary are members, aspires to cut emissions to zero by 2050.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall PE production totalled 1,712,400 tonnes in the first seven months of 2020, up by 58% year on year. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounted for the greatest increase in the output. At the same time, overall PP production in Russia increased in January-July 2020 by 24% year on year to 1,063,700 tonne. ZapSibNeftekhim accounted for the main increase in the output.
MRC

1. Crude tests six-week highs as fundamental outlooks tighten

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures settled higher Oct. 14 as fundamental outlooks turned more bullish amid reports of improved OPEC+ quota compliance and rising Chinese crude demand, reported S&P Global. Oil climbed in a late session rally following a Reuters report stating OPEC+ producers achieved 102% quota compliance in September. The latest S&P Global Platts survey Oct. 9 found compliance reached 99% last month, led by the Gulf states, but discipline from Russia and some African producers continued to slip. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said Oct. 14 that OPEC+ did not expect the second coronavirus wave to impede plans to increase oil output gradually.



MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Spanish refiner Repsol took its fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) at Corunna offline in April and has reported no change in the situation as of October 2, reported S&P Global.

At Bilbao, Crude 2 unit, which was taken offline May 9 due to market reasons, is still offline, the company said October 2.

The unit is expected to stay offline until market conditions warrant. The halt has affected 40% of the refinery's crude distillation and also includes the visbreaking unit. The FCC was taken offline in April, and the company has not confirmed its restart.

As MRC informed before, Spain’s Repsol shut down its cracker in Tarragona (Spain) for maintenance in the fourth quarter of 2019. The turnaround at this steam cracker, which produces 702,000 mt/year of ethylene and 372,000 mt/year of propylene, was pushed back from Q3 2019. The exact dates of maintenance works were not disclosed.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,496,500 tonnes in the first eight months of 2020, up by 5% year on year. Shipments of all ethylene polymers increased, except for linear low desnity polyethylene (LLDPE). At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 767,2900 tonnes in the eight months of 2020 (calculated using the formula - production minus exports plus imports - and not counting producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply increased exclusively of PP random copolymer.

Repsol S.A is an integrated Spanish oil and gas company with operations in 28 countries. The bulk of its assets are located in Spain.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Global oil demand is forecast to peak by around 2040 because transport-fuel demand will decline steeply and economic growth will slow in the post-coronavirus world, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, said in its annual IEEJ Outlook 2021 on Oct. 15, reported S&P Global.

"In the post-coronavirus era, we expect demand for transport fuels will be curbed significantly," Shigeru Suehiro, senior economist and manager at IEEJ's econometric and statistical analysis group, told an online press briefing.
"We see oil demand peaking in around 2040 as a result of a slowing economy, together with less fuel demand for cars, aircraft and ships."

In its post-pandemic scenario, the IEEJ forecasts global oil demand will peak at 106 million b/d in 2040 and fall further to 102 million b/d in 2050 mainly due to dwindling demand for cars, Suehiro said.

"In such a world, oil exporting countries such as those in the Middle East may suffer a major impact, and it will be critically important for them to diversify their economies," Suehiro said.

Stressing that oil demand would remain strong after having peaked, upstream investment would be vital to preventing a supply crunch and the destabilization of the oil market in the future, he said.

The IEEJ, an affiliate of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, releases its global energy outlook until 2050 on an annual basis.

In its reference scenario, under which it assumes the impact of the pandemic on global energy demand will dissipate in few years, the IEEJ expects energy demand will increase toward 2050 due to the growth in Asian demand, Suehiro said.

The reference scenario is based on assumptions that current energy and environmental policies will be maintained without the introduction of radical decarbonization policies.

The IEEJ forecasts oil demand will increase to 116 million b/d in 2050 mainly due to growing demand for transport fuel and petrochemical feedstocks based on its reference scenario, Suehiro said.

Roughly half of the oil demand growth of about 20 million b/d by 2050 will be met by OPEC producers in the Middle East because of their abundant reserves and low production costs in the IEEJ reference scenario.

"In Asia, we expect to see a major change in the landscape. The significant growth in Asian energy demand has been led mainly by China's increased energy demand [in recent years]," Suehiro said. "In the next 30 years, India and ASEAN will be the main drivers of demand growth rather than China."

By 2050, India will account for over a third of the increase in global energy demand as Chinese demand will peak in the late 2030s, under the IEEJ reference scenario.

While the IEEJ forecasts fossil fuels will account for 80% of global energy demand in 2050 under its reference scenario, in its advanced technologies scenario it puts it at 67%, with demand for oil, coal and natural gas having peaked by then.

The advanced technologies scenario is based on assumptions that the maximum amount of innovative technologies have been introduced as countries enforce strict energy and environmental policies to combat climate change.

In its latest outlook, the IEEJ has introduced a Circular Carbon Economy scenario, under which it looks at how countries around the world could pursue both using fossil fuels and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by advancing Reduce, Reuse, Remove and Recycle, or 4Rs technologies.

CCE is among key agenda to be discussed during the Saudi Arabia-hosted G20 summit in November.

The CCE scenario assumes the same 67% share of fossil fuels in energy demand in 2050 as in the advanced technologies scenario, but CO2 emissions will be reduced by another 5 billion mt.

"By maximizing the utilization of decarbonization technology, CO2 emissions could be significantly reduced even though the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix remains unchanged," senior economist at IEEJ's planning & administration unit, Yoshikazu Kobayashi, said at the briefing.

"In other words, the use of fossil fuels and a reduction in CO2 emissions can be pursued at the same time by maximizing the use of decarbonization technologies," Kobayashi said.

The IEEJ expects introduction of hydrogen to replace some of coal-fired power generation and replace some oil products in transport to be among the possible options to reduce CO2 significantly, Kobayashi said.

Hydrogen is forecast to account for 5% of the 2050 global energy mix for power generation in the IEEJ's CCE scenario.

As MRC wrote before, global oil demand may have already peaked, according to BP's latest long-term energy outlook, as the COVID-19 pandemic kicks the world economy onto a weaker growth trajectory and accelerates the shift to cleaner fuels.

Earlier this year, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

And in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall PE production totalled 1,712,400 tonnes in the first seven months of 2020, up by 58% year on year. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounted for the greatest increase in the output. At the same time, overall PP production in Russia increased in January-July 2020 by 24% year on year to 1,063,700 tonne. ZapSibNeftekhim accounted for the main increase in the output.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- LyondellBasell, the world's lartest polyolefins producer, puts Americas propylene oxide (PO) and derivatives on force majeure, according to Chemweek.

A leak on a PO refining column at LyondellBasell's plant in Bayport (Texas, USA) with the capacity of 600,000 mt/year of PO on 7 October caused the company to significantly reduce capacity utilisation at its Bayport facility, and subsequently declare force majeure on PO and derivatives, according to a customer letter.

The letter did not say how long the disruption was expected to last.

Products affected include PO, p-glycols, allyl alcohol, butanediol and derivatives, p-series glycol ethers, and p-specialties glycol ethers.

As MRC informed earlier, LyondellBasell (Rotterdam, the Netherlands) announced that Duqm Refinery and Petrochemical Industries Company LLC (DRPIC) has selected LyondellBasell’s world-leading polypropylene (PP) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) technologies for a new facility. The new plants will comprise of a PP plant that will utilize LyondellBasell’s Spheripol PP process technology to produce 280,000 metric tons per year (m.t./yr) of PP and a 480-m.t./yr HDPE plant which will utilize LyondellBasell’s Hostalen ACP process technology and will be built in Al Duqm, Oman.

Propylene is the main feedstock for the production of PP.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 767,2900 tonnes in the eight months of 2020 (calculated using the formula - production minus exports plus imports - and not counting producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply increased exclusively of PP random copolymer.

LyondellBasell is one of the largest plastics, chemicals and refining companies in the world. Driven by its 13,000 employees around the globe, LyondellBasell produces materials and products that are key to advancing solutions to modern challenges like enhancing food safety through lightweight and flexible packaging, protecting the purity of water supplies through stronger and more versatile pipes, and improving the safety, comfort and fuel efficiency of many of the cars and trucks on the road. LyondellBasell sells products into approximately 100 countries and is the world's largest licensor of polyolefin technologies.
MRC