MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asia, especially mainland China, will continue to lead global styrene demand and price directions amid massive capacity additions and anti-dumping duties that will result in industry-wide restructuring, according to Brian Lee, executive director at IHS Markit, said Chemweek.
Impacted by COVID-19, the global styrene market this year will be slightly under 29 million metric tons, compared to more than 30 million metric tons previously, says Lee, speaking at IHS Markit’s Asia Chemical Conference 2020, being held in a virtual format. In terms of end use demand, the largest styrene application is for electronics and appliances at 32%, followed by packaging at around 32%, and building and construction at about 21%.
Northeast Asia capacity at 14 million metric tons/year (MMt/y) accounts for 49% of worldwide styrene production in 2020, while forecast demand in the region totals 16.1 million metric tons, with mainland China accounting for 63%, South Korea at 15%, and Taiwan at 12%. Hence, demand or supply shifts in mainland China will impact the overall industry.
The styrene market has rebalanced following limited capacity additions over the last 7-8 years, with producers enjoying healthy margins in the last five years. However, heavy capacity additions came onstream this year while demand was much lower than expected, leading to a longer market and poorer styrene margins than the previous few years, Lee says.
This situation will continue for the next couple of years as capacity additions outweigh demand growth, he says. Most of the new additions are integrated facilities in China, with Hengli Petrochemical (720,000 metric tons/year), Liaoning Bora (360,000 metric tons/year), and Zhejiang Petrochemical (1.2 million metric tons/year) starting up this year. In 2021 at least another 2.6 MMt/y of new capacity is expected, according to IHS Markit data.
Separately, the propylene oxide–styrene monomer (POSM) process of styrene production, despite its smaller capacities, is also making a comeback due to improved styrene margins over the last five years. The POSM portion of styrene production is forecast to increase to around 22% of total capacity within a couple of years, compared to around 18% in 2020. This means that propylene oxide (PO) balances and margin will also impact styrene.
The elasticity of styrene demand growth is around 0.7% of GDP growth. Prior to COVID-19, IHS Markit forecasted global GDP growth for 2020 of around 2.4%, with styrene demand growth at slightly less than 2% with a similar trend in 2021. However, as the pandemic spread, IHS Markit revised the long-term balance based on global GDP growth for 2020 at around negative 5.5%, with styrene demand growth at around minus 5%.
Demand growth in Northeast Asia during the first quarter of 2020 fell 15% year-on-year but the COVID-19 situation stabilized faster than expected, with monthly styrene demand growth turning positive from June onwards. The demand recovery increased further during the third quarter, supported by pent-up demand from China. If this trend continues in the fourth quarter, actual demand growth in 2020 would to be much better than previous IHS Markit forecasts.
As MRC informed earlier, AmSty is announcing its commitment that all products designed for foodservice and food packaging applications will contain 25 percent recycled content by 2030. The leading integrated producer of polystyrene and styrene monomer continues to reach milestones toward this goal with its circular recycling process operating commercially at Regenyx LLC, its joint venture with Agilyx Corporation.
According to ICIS-MRC Price report, October prices of Russian PS continued their upward trend. A shortage of material remained in the domestic market. Traders said Nizhnekamskneftekhim reduced its offer prices for this month's PS purchases to 40%. October prices of Nizhnekamskneftekhim's GPPS grew for the agreed with buyers quantities to Rb89,000-95,000/tonne CPT Moscow, including VAT, whereas HIPS - to Rb93,000-99,000/tonne CPT Moscow, including VAT.
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