MOSCOW (MRC) -- Imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) into northwest Europe from the US plunged by 75% in November month-on-month, as a second wave of new COVID-19 infections sent feedstock buyers running for cover, according to Chemweek.
Total US-origin cargoes coming to northwest Europe were estimated at 95,000 metric tons in November, down from 400,000 metric tons in October, which was the highest for 2020 so far. Total November LPG cargo trade in northwest Europe was down by 16% to an estimated 675,000 metric tons compared to October, while intake as petrochemical feedstock for the month declined 29% from October’s level to 400,000 metric tons.
The return of regional and national lockdowns early in November, and subsequent partial and gradual cargo liftings, appeared to take CIF Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp propane and CIF northwest European naphtha prices in different directions. Propane saw a USD6/metric ton rise over the month to USD382/metric ton from USD376/metric ton, whilst naphtha rocketed by USD54/metric ton to USD393/metric ton, from USD339/metric ton. The relative price swings resulted in the propane/naphtha spread shifting from USD35/metric ton at the start of November to minus USD9/metric ton by the end of the month, averaging USD6.5/metric ton for the month as a whole.
The local North Sea supply of LPG entering the petchems feedstock pool was 290,000 metric tons in November, equivalent to 73% of total feedstock intake, up markedly from 165,000 metric tons in October. The remainder of intake from the petchems sector in November saw 13% come from the US east coast, down from 32% in October. Imports from the US Gulf Coast were just 11% of the intake, down from 36% in October. The retail and refining sector saw LPG intake stable at 180,000 metric tons month on month.
Exports out of northwest Europe in November climbed to 95,000 metric tons from 60,000 metric tons in the previous month, with cargoes moving to the Baltic, eastern Mediterranean, US east coast and the Caribbean. Exports of LPG from Ust-Luga in the Russian Baltic to northwest Europe were an estimated 13,000 metric tons.
OPIS is an IHS Markit company.
As MRC reported earlier, expectations of a seasonal increase in heating demand ha prompted Asian petrochemical makers to buy LPG as cracker feedstock to capitalize on positive olefin margins, though any further purchases could be limited by a rebound in the LPG market led by renewed Chinese and possibly Indian imports, trade sources said S&P Global in August, 2020.
Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing PE and PP.
According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,760,950 tonnes in the first ten months of 2020, up by 3% year on year. Only high density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 978,870 tonnes in January-October 2020 (calculated using the formula: production minus exports plus imports minus producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively of PP random copolymer increased.
MRC