Crude steady as market weighs supply outlooks against rising pandemic risks

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Oil futures settled mixed Dec. 8 after a directionless session as the market pitted the rising threat of pandemic lockdowns against forecasts of tighter oil markets in 2021, reported S&P Global.

NYMEX January WTI settled 16 cents lower at USD45.60/b, while ICE February Brent was up 5 cents at USD48.84/b.

The US Energy Information Administration, in its monthly Short Term Energy Outlook released Dec. 8, revised its outlook for crude prices sharply higher from the month prior, citing an OPEC+ decision to partially extend production quotas into 2021.

The EIA expects Brent crude prices to average USD48.50/b in 2021, up USD1.91 from its November forecast of USD46.59/b.

WTI crude prices are expected to average at USD45.75/b next year, up USD1.51 from November's forecast of USD44.24/b.

The EIA cited the OPEC+ decision to boost production by just 500,000 b/d in January, instead of a scheduled 1.9 million b/d, as the reason for the upward revision. The move will lead to a tighter oil market in 2021, especially during the first quarter, the EIA said. As a result, the EIA now forecasts global oil inventories will draw on average 1.8 million b/d throughout the first quarter, an upward revision of 1 million b/d from November's outlook.

NYMEX January RBOB settled 1 point higher Dec. 8 at USD1.2559/gal, and January ULSD climbed 75 points to settle at USD1.4067/gal.

But the threat of more pandemic lockdowns capped upward price movement.

"The big cities in the US are getting hit hard again by the virus and that could translate into longer lockdowns that will deliver a bigger hit to fuel demand over the next couple of months," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya said in a note. "Vaccine implementation across the US and Europe will be key for how quickly the crude demand outlook improves next year."

Washington Governor Jay Inslee on Dec. 8 announced that the state would be extending its lockdown measures for three weeks beyond an initial Dec. 14 expiration as the state battles rising case numbers.

Global coronavirus cases rose by 533,000 to nearly 68 million on Dec. 7, according to data from John Hopkins University. Some 200,000 of the new cases were in the US and 153,000 were across Europe. The UK began administering COVID-19 vaccines on Dec. 8.

In the US, which has yet to approve a vaccine, the seven-day moving average of coronavirus-caused deaths hit a fresh all-time high of 2,171 on Dec. 7, according to data from The Covid Tracking Project.

As MRC informed previously, global oil demand may have already peaked, according to BP's latest long-term energy outlook, as the COVID-19 pandemic kicks the world economy onto a weaker growth trajectory and accelerates the shift to cleaner fuels.

Earlier this year, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40% in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

And in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing PE and PP.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,760,950 tonnes in the first ten months of 2020, up by 3% year on year. Only high density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 978,870 tonnes in January-October 2020 (calculated using the formula: production minus exports plus imports minus producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively of PP random copolymer increased.
MRC

DSM, SABIC, Cepsa, Fibrant, and Viscofan co-develop novel meat packaging material made from mixed post-consumer plastics

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Driven by a shared vision of sustainability and strong collaboration, DSM, SABIC, Cepsa, Fibrant, and Viscofan have together created a multi-barrier casing for meat products made via advanced recycling of post-consumer plastics, as per DSM's press release.

The transition towards recycled-based multi-layer films enables the packaging industry to adopt a more sustainable solution without compromising on functional performance. The development of this packaging material underlines a strong commitment to enabling a circular economy by working together with partners throughout the value chain, and addresses the increasing consumer, societal and regulatory demand for more sustainable multi-layer barrier casing solutions.

Produced by Viscofan, the newly developed sustainable casing consists of several layers of different polymers. DSM Engineering Materials supplies the high-performance certified circular polyamide (PA) Akulon CRC-MB, and SABIC supplies the high-performance certified circular polyethylene (PE) from its TRUCIRCLE portfolio of circular solutions. Both products are based on used and post-consumer plastics which would otherwise be discarded as landfill or lost to incineration. Using advanced recycling, the used plastic is converted into new feedstock, which then enters the production chain to deliver new virgin-quality materials.

Jason Zhang, VP Business Lines Performance Polymers at DSM Engineering Materials: “By introducing Akulon CRC-MB, DSM is taking an exciting next step in its sustainability journey. The co-development of a recycled-based film for packaging applications underlines DSM’s commitment to working closely with partners, customers and suppliers to realize a more sustainable value chain and economy.”

Mark Vester, Global Circular Economy Leader at SABIC: “We’re committed to finding innovative solutions that help to capture value from used plastic which would otherwise have been discarded. This includes collaborating with players across the entire value chain to provide access to more sustainable materials, made using our TRUCIRCLE portfolio of circular solutions, and to work towards a circular economy for plastics. We are delighted to work with partners including Cepsa, Fibrant, DSM and Viscofan to help make this vision a reality.”

The high-performance certified circular polyamide Akulon CRC-MB is produced through a strong value chain collaboration involving a range of partners applying a mass-balancing approach**. Firstly, SABIC produces certified circular benzene, based on materials produced via feedstock recycling of mixed-used plastics, which is used by Cepsa to make certified circular phenol. Fibrant then uses the phenol to produce certified circular caprolactam EcoLactam, which is provided to DSM to produce its certified circular polyamide. Finally, Viscofan combines the certified circular polyethylene and polyamide to produce the multi-barrier film used to create casings for a variety of meat products.

Paul Habets, Director Marketing & Sales at Fibrant: “We’re proud that our EcoLactam Circular is used in Viscofan’s newly developed product. This is an important milestone for us and our value chain partners supporting the development of sustainable and circular products. EcoLactam means high-quality caprolactam with a lower environmental footprint. Together, we’re making important steps toward a carbon-neutral society.”

All of the advanced recycled materials within the value chain will have the globally recognized ISCC Plus certification and will not require re-qualification.

Multi-layer barrier films inherently offer strong sustainability advantages by helping to reduce preventable food waste – which accounts for 8% of total global greenhouse gas emissions - and extending the shelf-life of food products. What’s more, using post-consumer plastics as a feedstock mitigates the depletion of natural resources, reduces the accumulation of plastic waste and improves the environmental footprint.

Oscar Ponz, Chief Plastic Business Officer at Viscofan: “By combining our capacity for innovation and the latest available technology, we have today reached a unique solution in the market using post-consumer recycled plastics. In our sustainable casings program, next to today’s achievement, we’re also in a position to offer bio-based alternatives to our customers. Today’s announcement is a result of the shared commitment to make food systems fair, healthy and environmentally friendly for a more sustainable future. This important project is being developed with the collaboration of important Viscofan customers like ElPozo.”

*The certified circular polyethylene, part of SABIC’s TRUCIRCLE portfolio, is based on materials produced via feedstock recycling of mixed and used plastic. SABIC’s uses advanced feedstock recycling technology from UK-based Plastic Energy to recover the material value of mixed and used plastic, including previously difficult to recycle post-consumer plastics, which could otherwise be lost to landfill or incineration. The waste is converted into an oil, which then enters the production chain just like fossil-based feedstock to deliver new materials without compromising on quality.

As MRC reported earlier, the winners of Chemical Week’s inaugural Sustainability Awards, a virtual event that honors the chemical industry’s best sustainability efforts, were announced in late November. The judging panel - comprising 13 judges with a variety of experience from companies across the chemical industry value chain, including Chemical Week editors, and IHS Markit experts - selected the winners from 75 submissions by nearly 40 companies. Thus, Braskem, Dow Europe, Royal DSM emerge on top at Chemical Week sustainability awards.

We remind that Russia"s output of products from polymers grew in October 2020 by 6.3% year on year.
However, this figure increased by 1.5% year on year in the first ten months of 2020. According to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, October production of unreinforced and non-combined films rose to 124,000 tonnes from 117,600 tonnes a month earlier. Output of films products grew in January-October 2020 by 8.5% year on year to 1 104,900 tonnes.
MRC

PVC imports into Russia fell by 17% in January-November, exports up by 6%

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Imports of suspension polyvinyl chloride (SPVC) into Russia totalled about 40,100 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020, down by 17% year on year. At the same time, exports decreased by 6%, according to MRC's DataScope report.

Last month's SPVC imports to Russia dropped to 1,600 tonnes from 2,300 tonnes in October. High PVC prices in the foreign markets and seasonal decline in demand continued to put significant pressure on import purchases of PVC from Russian companies.

Thus, overall imports were 40,100 tonnes in January-November 2020, compared to 48,500 tonnes a year earlier, with PVC from China and the United States accounting for the main reduction in imports. PVC shipments from these countries decreased by almost a third over the stated period.

Strong demand for PVC from the domestic market helped Russian producers to reduce export sales, despite the record high prices of PVC in the world in the past few months. November exports of suspension hardly exceeded 9,200 tonnes (excluding shipments to Belarus and Kazakhstan) versus 9,600 tonnes a month earlier. Thus, overall PVC exports totalled 175,000 tonnes in January-November 2020, compared to 185,300 tonnes a year earlier.


MRC

Ineos nears restart of phenol plant in Gladbeck, Germany

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The Ineos-operated 660,000-metric tons/year phenol-acetone plant in Gladbeck, Germany, will restart by 10 December following planned maintenance, reported Chemweek with reference to sources.

The producer shut the plant down for maintenance on 27 October until 6 December, according to the producer’s website. “They have not restarted yet, they should come back in 2-3 days,” says one source. “They are starting up right now and expect to be back online next week if all goes to plan,” the source said on 4 December. Ineos Phenol did not reply to a request on Monday seeking confirmation of the restart date.

Ineos produces 409,000 metric tons/year of acetone at the Gladbeck site, according to IHS Markit data.

As MRC wrote previously, INEOS Phenol broke ground at its world scale cumene investment in Marl, Germany, in October 2019. The new state-of-the-art 750 000 t unit is scheduled to be completed in 2021. Its location will help optimise the efficiency of the plant by integrating raw materials from the refinery and cracker complex. The site also benefits from the Marl harbour waterway connection.

Phenol is derived from benzene and largely used to produce bisphenol A (BPA), used in the manufacture of plastics such as polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resins. It is also used in the production of phenolic resins for the construction industry.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall consumption of PC granules (excluding imports and exports to/from Belarus) rose in January-October 2020 by 21% year on year to 79,500 tonnes (65,600 tonnes a year earlier).

Ineos Group Limited is a privately owned multinational chemicals company consisting of 15 standalone business units, headquartered in Rolle, Switzerland and with its registered office in Lyndhurst, United Kingdom. It is the fourth largest chemicals company in the world measured by revenues (after BASF, Dow Chemical and LyondellBasell) and the largest privately owned company in the United Kingdom.
MRC

OQ Chemicals hikes global 2-EHA prices

MOSCOW (MRC) -- OQ Chemicals (Monheim am Rhein, Germany) says it has raised prices for 2-ethylhexanoic acid (2-EHA) worldwide,.tThe price hike was “due to supply and demand,” reported Chemweek with reference to the company's statement.

Effective as of 15 November or as contracts allow, the price in Europe increased by EUR100/metric ton (USD116/metric ton), while in the US it rose by 5 cents per pound. In the rest of the world the price of 2-EHA was raised by USD100/metric ton.

OQ, formerly Oxea, in September implemented a price increase for 2-EHA effective 1 October also due to supply and demand for the product, it said at the time. It also raised prices for other oxo intermediates and carboxylic acids including 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH).

As MRC wrote earlier, in September 2020, OQ Chemicals entered into an agreement to license its advanced proprietary technology for the production of ethylene and propylene derivatives to Duqm Refinery and Petrochemicals Industries Company (DRPIC) in Oman. DRPIC, a joint venture between Oman Oil Company and Kuwait International Oil Company, is a planned grassroots petrochemical complex at Duqm, Oman. In all, DRPIC awarded twelve license packages to international licensors.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,760,950 tonnes in the first ten months of 2020, up by 3% year on year. Only high density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 978,870 tonnes in January-October 2020 (calculated using the formula: production minus exports plus imports minus producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively of PP random copolymer increased.

OQ Chemicals, formerly Oxea, is a global manufacturer of oxo intermediates and oxo derivatives, such as alcohols, polyols, carboxylic acids, specialty esters, and amines. These products are used for the production of high-quality coatings, lubricants, cosmetics and pharmaceutical products, flavours and fragrances, printing inks and plastics. OQ Chemicals is part of OQ, an integrated energy company that delivers sustainability and business excellence. OQ operates in 16 countries and covers the entire value chain from exploration and production to the marketing and distribution of its products.
MRC