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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Oil demand recovery will take a hit from a spike in new coronavirus cases before vaccine roll-outs and stimulus measures help in the second half of the year, International Energy Agency (IEA) said, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.
“Border closures, social distancing measures and shutdowns...will continue to constrain fuel demand until vaccines are more widely distributed, most likely only by the second half of the year,” it said in its monthly report. “This recovery mainly reflects the impact of fiscal and monetary support packages as well as the effectiveness of steps to resolve the pandemic,” the IEA said.
The emergence of new strains of the virus, renewed lockdowns in China and logistical hurdles facing vaccine roll-outs contributed to the IEA’s gloomier outlook. Noting that an improvement to global oil demand went into reverse in December, the Paris-based watchdog lowered its forecast for the first quarter by 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) and its outlook for 2021 by 300,000 bpd.
Both supply and demand are on track for recovery this year, and efforts by top producers to balance the market by reining in output helped lower stockpiles of crude and oil products worldwide, though oil stocks remained stubbornly close to a May peak.
Given an expected demand increase in the second half of the year, however, “much more oil is likely to be required”. Cold Asian and European winters along with supply discipline by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies boosted crude prices, the IEA said, while the U.S. shale industry was expected to keep production flat. "If they stick to those plans, OPEC+ may start to reclaim the market share it has steadily lost to the U.S. and others since 2016."
We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.
Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).
According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
Resurgence in COVID-19 cases slows oil demand rebound
Fire at Karpatneftekhim did not affect its work
The Rescue Service received a message about a fire on the territory of Karpatneftekhim LLC on Friday, January 15, at 14:40. There was a flare combustion of the pyrolysis furnace (dichloroethane). The fire was quickly extinguished, and, according to the representatives of the enterprise, did not affect the activities of Karpatneftekhim.
The production of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is operating normally within the planned targets.
Earlier it was reported that in January 2019 Karpatneftekhim announced force majeure for the supply of ethylene and propylene from the olefin complex in Kalush due to a fire that led to a halt in production. The fire broke out at the producer's polyolefin production on 12 January, 2019 at 21:08 and was extinguished at 10:44 the next day.
In addition, at the end of June 2020, a lightning strike caught fire at the Karpatneftekhim enterprise. Also, on 6 June, 2020, a fire also occurred in the Karpatneftekhim pyrolysis workshop. The production process was not stopped.
LLC "Karpatneftekhim", created on the basis of the facilities of the Kalush "Oriana", produces ethylene, polyethylene, vinyl chloride, caustic soda, chlorine and suspension PVC. According to the state register, the owner of the LLC is Karpaty Chemical BV (Netherlands), the beneficiaries of which, without specifying the shares, are the owner of the Tekhinservice industrial group Igor Shutskiy and the ex-head of the Ukrainian business of LUKOIL Ilham Mamedov.
MRC
PP imports into Ukraine rose by 2% in 2020
December PP imports to Ukraine decreased to 10,900 tonnes against 11,400 tonnes a month earlier, purchases of all types of propylene polymers from Ukrainian companies decreased, with the main decline accounted on PP random copolymers shipments. Overall PP imports reached 135,300 tonnes in 2020 versus 132,000 tonnes a year earlier. Demand for all grades of propylene polymers increased, whereas demand for injection moulding PP block copolymers increased.
The structure of PP imports by grades looked the following way over the stated period.
December imports of homopolymer PP into Ukraine were 8,000 tonnes, which equalled the November figure. Total homopolymer PP imports were 102,800 tonnes in January-December, compared to 100,200 tonnes a year earlier.
Last month's imports of block copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) were about 1,300 tonnes, compared to 0,900 tonnes in November, demand for injection moulding PP block copolymers increased. About 13,600 tonnes of PP block copolymers were imported in 2020, compared to 14,500 tonnes a year earlier.
December imports of PP random copolymers exceeded 1,300 tonnes from 2,200 tonnes a month earlier, local companies increased their purchasing of injection moulding and pipe grade PP random copolymers. Overall imports of PP random copolymers reached 16,400 tonnes in 2020, compared to 16,000 tonnes a year earlier. Overall imports of other propylene copolymers totalled about 2,500 tonnes over the stated period.
MRC
Oil markets watch the virus-vaccine tug-of-war
MOSCOW (MRC) -- As the race between humans and virus gathers pace, the oil markets can only watch this tug-of-war between rapidly spreading COVID-19 and a patchy vaccine deployment playing out, reported S&P Global.
The world watched rather euphorically when governments began approving vaccines last month, but the persistent spread of the virus since has cast a shadow over the outlook for 2021, though most analysts are optimistic that humans will take the lead in this race in the second half of the year, if not earlier.
Despite COVID-19's recent resurgence in several countries, analysts expect a recovery in oil demand and prices this year.
S&P Global Platts Analytics has maintained its 2021 oil demand growth forecast at 6.3 million b/d over 2020, with recoveries occurring in all regions and across different products, though at varying levels.
"Overall, optimism on global economic growth outlook on the back of reasonably well developed and effective vaccines is the main driver of this demand forecast,” Kang Wu, Head of Global Demand, Risk and Asia Analytics at S&P Global Platts said in a recent note.
On January 11, Goldman Sachs said it sees Brent crude rising to USD65/b by the middle of 2021, up to six months earlier than previously forecast. UBS has also raised its forecast for Brent crude to USD60/b by mid-2021.
Underpinning this optimistic view is Saudi Arabia's surprising decision this month to unilaterally cut 1 million b/d of production from February, and a demand boost expected from the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines.
"Despite the (demand-side) risks, we believe Saudi and OPEC+ actions have put a new price floor of USD50/b for 2021. As a result, we believe a modest upward revision to our price outlook is justified for Q1 2021,” Chris Midgley, Global Director of Analytics, S&P Global Platts, said.
Platts Analytics sees Dated Brent prices to be in low to mid USD50/b for much of 2021, with stronger support in the second half of the year.
Oil demand outlooks may not have been revised but downside risks are rising following a second wave of lockdowns seen across Asia and particularly in China, which is widely seen as leading the recovery.
Japan expanded its state of emergency this month, mirroring a similar increase in restrictions across Asia recently as COVID-19 cases rise, threatening to derail regional demand-side recovery. Malaysia declared a state of emergency Jan. 12, a day after Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest buyer of gasoline, started another two-week lockdown in the country's most-populated island of Java.
China, which had managed to successfully curb the spread of the virus, has witnessed a resurgence in cases, which is dampening demand for transportation fuels. The country on Jan. 17 registered 109 new COVID-19 cases, the sixth continuous day to have more than 100 cases.
To prevent the spread, several cities and towns in the northern part of China have been locked down in January. Even in the low-risk regions in the south, the government has called for citizens to stay locally during the coming Chinese New Year holidays, when transportation fuel demand generally picks up.
India's economy, meanwhile, seems to be back on track and oil demand has been growing for four straight months despite the country having the second largest number of cases in the world. Mobility is on a firm upward trend and vehicle sales are soaring, all pointing to strong transport fuels demand growth.
India's driving activity in December was at 145% against pre-COVID levels, up from 125% in November, with early January showing further uptrend.
As the demand recovery hobbles on, the supply side took on a curious twist this month with Saudi Arabia's surprising unilateral production cut announcement, which Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak called the kingdom's "New Year's gift” to the oil market.
The cut accounts for about 10% of Saudi Arabia's current output and comes even as four-year oil ally Russia, the least compliant OPEC+ member, lobbied for and won an increase in its production quota.
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Jan. 5 that the cut will bring down oil inventories and support "our economy, the economies of our friends and OPEC+ countries, and for the betterment of the industry at all levels."
While the unilaterality of the decision has taken analysts by surprise, Saudi Arabia seems to have at least scored a diplomatic coup with Russia after relations were strained due to differences in opinion around output policy.
The foreign ministers of the two countries recently held a joint press conference where they talked about the importance of their cooperation in contributing to the stabilization of energy markets.
"We value the cooperation we have with our partners within OPEC+, on top of them Russia, and we look forward to continued cooperation," Saudi Arabia's foreign minister Faisal bin Farhan said.
As MRC informed previously, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.
We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.
We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.
Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).
According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
MRC
BASF announces changes in Board of Executive Directors
MOSCOW (MRC) -- Dr. Melanie Maas-Brunner has been appointed as a member of the Board of Executive Directors of BASF SE, effective from 1 February 2021, reported GV.
Maas-Brunner has been with the company since 1997 and has headed BASF’s Nutrition & Health division since 2017. In her new role, she will also take over the position as Chief Technology Officer from Dr. Martin Brudermuller, Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors of BASF. She will assume responsibility for the three research divisions Advanced Materials & Systems Research, Bioscience Research, Process Research & Chemical Engineering as well as BASF New Business at that time. Dr. Kurt Bock, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of BASF SE, said: “With Melanie Maas-Brunner, we have appointed a very experienced chemist and strong leader to the Board. During her career at BASF to date, she has successfully set up business areas for the future – with global responsibility as well as in the Asia region.”
Wayne T. Smith is leaving the Board as of 31 May 2021. Smith has been with BASF for 16 years and has been a member of the Board since 2012. He is currently responsible for the divisions Monomers, Performance Materials, Petrochemicals, Intermediates, Process Research & Chemical Engineering and North America. “Wayne Smith has successfully developed the business areas in his area of responsibility with strategic foresight. He is particularly credited with placing customer orientation even more at the centre of BASF activities. I worked well and closely with Wayne Smith for many years. I thank him for his achievements and wish him all the best,” said Bock.
Michael Heinz will take over Smith’s responsibilities in North America after a transition period on 1 June 2021, and retain his responsibilities for South America. Maas-Brunner will additionally take over the tasks in the divisions European Site & Verbund Management, Global Engineering Services and Corporate Environmental Protection, Health & Safety as well as the role of the Industrial Relations Director from Heinz on the same date.
Following these changes, the Board of Executive Directors has decided to redistribute its responsibilities effective 1 June 2021:
Dr. Martin Brudermuller, Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, Ressort I, responsible for Corporate Legal, Compliance, Tax & Insurance; Corporate Development; Corporate Communications & Government Relations; Corporate Human Resources; Corporate Investor Relations
Dr. Hans-Ulrich Engel, Vice Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Digital Officer, Ressort II, responsible for Corporate Finance; Corporate Audit; Global Business Services; Global Digital Services; Global Procurement
Dr. Melanie Maas-Brunner, Industrial Relations Director and Chief Technology Officer, Ressort III, responsible for European Site & Verbund Management; Global Engineering Services; Corporate Environmental Protection, Health & Safety; Advanced Materials & Systems Research; Bioscience Research; Process Research & Chemical Engineering; BASF New Business
Saori Dubourg, Ressort IV, responsible for Agricultural Solutions; Nutrition & Health; Care Chemicals; Region Europe
Michael Heinz, Ressort V, located in Florham Park, NJ, USA, responsible for Monomers; Performance Materials; Petrochemicals; Intermediates; Region North America; Region South America
Dr. Markus Kamieth, Ressort VI, located in Hongkong, responsible for Dispersions & Pigments; Catalysts; Coatings; Performance Chemicals; Region Greater China; Region South & East Asia, ASEAN & ANZ; Mega Projects Asia.
As MRC wrote earlier, BASF says it has shut down an unspecified unit at its 420,000-metric ton/year steam cracker site in Ludwigshafen, Germany, due to a technical defect. Unscheduled flaring started on 13 January at the northern part of the Ludwigshafen site and is expected to last until 17 January, it says. “At around 4pm (local time) there was an outage at a unit at the northern part due to a technical defect. The unit will be partially shut down to repair the defect,” it says.
Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).
According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
BASF is the leading chemical company. It produces a wide range of chemicals, for example solvents, amines, resins, glues, electronic-grade chemicals, industrial gases, basic petrochemicals and inorganic chemicals. The most important customers for this segment are the pharmaceutical, construction, textile and automotive industries.
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