U.S. oil refiners set for worst earnings quarter of the pandemic

MOSCOW (MRC) -- U.S. refiners are girding for a painful slate of fourth-quarter earnings, reflecting the pressure of rising crude prices, weak demand due to renewed COVID-19 travel restrictions, and higher costs of associated with blending of renewable fuels into their products, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Seven U.S. independent refiners are projected to post an average earnings-per-share loss of USD1.51, down from a loss of USD1.06 in the third quarter of 2020, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Both Credit Suisse and Tudor Pickering Holt cut lowered the price estimates of every U.S. independent refiner for the fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, independent refiners including Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and Phillips 66 coped with uneven demand due to a resurgence of coronavirus cases worldwide. Consumption of liquid fuels globally is estimated to have fallen by 9 million barrels per day in 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Crude oil benchmarks rallied more than 20% in the quarter, which squeezed U.S. refining margins to less than USD10 a barrel on average - the threshold for which most refiners make money - for the majority of the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, tougher restrictions on socializing and businesses clamped down on traffic in states like California, the most populous U.S. state and one of the largest driving markets in the world. Travel on U.S. roads fell by 11% in November from the year-ago period, after a 9% drop in October, according to the U.S. Transportation Department.

Lockdowns in various European countries suppressed international flights and jet fuel demand in the quarter. Delta Airlines' refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, in early January posted a USD102 million refining segment loss in the fourth quarter, and a USD441 million loss on third party fuel sales.

In the fourth quarter, refiners also had to pay more for U.S. renewable fuel credits, which reached a three-year high earlier this month. The cost for Renewable Identification Numbers - the credits used for compliance with U.S. biofuels blending laws - increased by 47 cents per barrel from the third quarter due to rising ethanol and biodiesel prices.

Refiners are required, by law, to blend biofuels into their gasoline pool, or pay up so others can do the same. The pandemic has reduced blending activity generally, and as a result, fewer credits have been issued, increasing their costs. Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta said Phillips 66 will lose USD1.16 per share in the quarter. He had originally anticipated a 30-cent loss, but changed that due to lower refining earnings in the Gulf Coast, West Coast and Midwest markets.

"Sales will also see earnings down as crude price rose sharply quarter over quarter and lockdowns impacted volumes," said Gupta in a note. U.S. refining margins started to improve around the holiday season, and were around USD12.50 per barrel. Refining rates rose last week to their highest since March, government data showed. However, at about 80% of capacity, refiners are producing approximately 2 million fewer barrels than at the same time last year.

"While refiners may be getting paid the same amount for gasoline as last year, it's on much lower production," said Bob Yawger, director for energy market futures at Mizuho.

As per MRC, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has cut supplies of February-loading crude for some Asian buyer by up to a quarter while meeting requirements of at least four others. This comes after Saudi Arabia pledged additional voluntary output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March under a deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+.

As MRC wrote previously, Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) was running its crackers in Taiwan at 100% capacity utilisation in end-December, 2020. The company"s crackers have combined ethylene production capacity of 2.935 million metric tons/year. Meanwhile, FPCC is planning overhaul of the smallest cracker in mid-2021.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC"s DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Oil and gas producer Hess Corp forecast a small drop in output and set a USD1.9 billion budget for 2021, most of which will go to Guyana, touted as one of the most important new oil and gas discoveries in the last decade, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The company has been relying on its investment in offshore Guyana, one of the world's most important oil and gas blocks in the last decade, which is being developed by a consortium led by oil major Exxon Mobil Corp. Hess has allotted USD780 million, or 41% of its budget, to development activities in offshore Guyana.

"We also will continue to invest in an active exploration and appraisal program, with 12-15 wells planned on the Stabroek Block (offshore Guyana)," said Chief Operating Officer Greg Hill. Hess forecast net production to average about 310,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2021, excluding Libya, compared with 2020 estimate of 325,000 boepd.

For 2020, the New York-based energy company had estimated to spend USD1.8 billion. The company will also add a rig in the first quarter in North Dakota's Bakken shale play, adding to a single rig there since May. There were six rigs in the Bakken at the start of last year before the company slashed production to cope with a oil price crash.

Bakken net production is estimated to average about 170,000 boepd in 2021, which despite the addition of a rig, would be below 2020's estimated 190,000 boepd, partly hit by a planned 45-day turnaround activity at the Tioga Gas Plant in the third quarter cutting output by about 7,500 boepd in 2021.

As per MRC, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has cut supplies of February-loading crude for some Asian buyer by up to a quarter while meeting requirements of at least four others. This comes after Saudi Arabia pledged additional voluntary output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March under a deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+.

As MRC wrote previously, Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) was running its crackers in Taiwan at 100% capacity utilisation in end-December, 2020. The company"s crackers have combined ethylene production capacity of 2.935 million metric tons/year. Meanwhile, FPCC is planning overhaul of the smallest cracker in mid-2021.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC"s DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.


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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Dow will spend approximately USD294 to install and operate air pollution control and monitoring technology at 4 US chemical facilities as part of a settlement with The Department of Justice (DOJ), the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ), according to Chemweek with reference to a statement by the DOJ.

The settlement resolves allegations that Dow and its subsidiaries Performance Materials NA Inc. and Union Carbide Corporation violated the Clean Air Act by failing to properly operate and monitor industrial flares at their petrochemical facilities, which resulted in excess emissions of harmful air pollution.

The technology will be used to reduce flaring and the resulting harmful air pollution from 26 industrial flares at the companies’ facilities at Hahnville and Plaquemine, Louisiana and Freeport and Orange, Texas.

The complaint, filed Tuesday along with the settlement, alleges that Dow and its subsidiaries “oversteamed” their flares and failed to comply with other key operating parameters that ensure the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and hazardous air pollutants contained in the gases routed to the flares are effectively combusted.

Once fully implemented, the pollution controls required by the settlement are estimated to reduce harmful air emissions of VOCs by more than 5,600 tons per year. The settlement is also expected to reduce toxic air pollutants, including benzene, by nearly 500 tons per year.

“This settlement will improve air quality in Texas and Louisiana by eliminating thousands of tons of harmful air pollution each year,” says Jonathan D. Brightbill, Acting Assistant Attorney General of the Justice Department’s Environment and Natural Resources Division. “The agreement, which requires Dow to reduce emissions from its facilities in Texas and Louisiana, demonstrates the Justice Department’s and EPA’s continuing efforts, together with our state partners, to reduce harmful air pollution from unnecessary and improper flaring in order to protect the American public by bringing sources of air pollution into compliance with the Clean Air Act.”

Under the terms of the settlement, Dow will also perform air quality monitoring that is designed to detect the presence of benzene at the fence lines of the four covered plants and pay a civil penalty of USD3 million. The LDEQ will receive USD675,000 of the USD3 million total civil penalty, and Dow will perform three state-authorized “beneficial environmental projects” in Louisiana that were negotiated by Louisiana.

As MRC reported earlier, in September, 2020, Dow and Luhai, an integrated waste management company located in Xiamen, China, announced their collaboration to give plastics waste collected by Luhai a second life, thereby increasing the circularity of plastics in China. The agreement is in line with Dow’s new sustainability targets to Stop the Waste by enabling one million metric tons of plastic to be collected, reused or recycled through its direct actions and partnerships by 2030.

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

The Dow Chemical Company is an American multinational chemical corporation. Dow is a large producer of plastics, including polystyrene, polyurethane, polyethylene, polypropylene, and synthetic rubber.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Nearly 200 refinery workers represented by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters in St. Paul Park, Minnesota, walked out on strike after failing to agree on a new contract with Marathon Petroleum by the end of 2020, said Reuters.

The union voted to authorize a strike at Marathon’s 102,000-barrel-per-day refinery in St. Paul Park in December of 2020.

“At this time, we have safely assumed operation of the refinery with trained and qualified personnel,” a company spokesman said.

As per MRC, Marathon Petroleum plans to permanently close two small US oil refineries in Martinez, California, and Gallup, New Mexico, the company said, eliminating 800 jobs in response to lower fuels demand. The largest US refiner by volume had earlier idled the two facilities following weak demand due to COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. US refiners on average idled about 20% of total processing capacity on falling vehicle and air travel.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC"s DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Reliance Industries Ltd has completed spin-off of the firm’s oil-to-chemical business into a new unit that will help it pursue growth opportunities with strategic partnerships, reported Kemicalinfo with reference to the company's statement.

The oil-to-chemical (O2C) business unit holds Reliance’s oil refinery and petrochemical assets and retail fuel business but not upstream oil and gas producing fields such as KG-D6 and textiles business.

“Reorganising refining and petrochemicals as oil-to-chemicals (O2C) reflects new strategy as well as management matrix,” the company said in a post earning investor presentation.

Reliance started work on hiving off the O2C business into a separate unit last year for a possible stake sale to companies such as Saudi Aramco.

It values the O2C business at USD75 billion and has been in talks with Saudi Arabian Oil Co (Aramco) for sale of a 20% interest.

The company, however, did not mention discussions with Aramco, which are said to have hit a valuation roadblock.

The reorganisation would “drive the move towards further downstream and closer to customers” and “provide sustainable and affordable energy and materials solutions to meet India’s growing needs,” the firm said in the presentation.

Reliance O2C Limited houses oil refining and petrochemical plants and manufacturing assets, bulk and wholesale fuel marketing, and Reliance’s 51% interest in retail fuel joint venture with BP of the UK.

The O2C unit also houses the firm’s Singapore and the UK-based oil trading subsidiaries and marketing subsidiary, Reliance Industries Uruguay Petroquimica SA.

It also houses Reliance Ethane Pipeline Limited that operates a pipeline between Dahej in Gujarat and Nagothane in Maharashtra as well as 74.9% stake that Reliance holds in the joint venture with Sibur.

Its very large ethane carriers, gas pipelines such as one that transports coal-bed methane from its CBM blocks, overseas oil and gas asset holding company Reliance Industries (Middle East) DMCC, and domestic exploration and production assets would not form part of the O2C unit.

Ambani had in July 2019 stated that the process of spinning of O2C into a separate subsidiary would be completed by early 2021.

Reliance owns and operates twin oil refineries at Jamnagar in Gujarat, with a combined capacity of 68.2 million tonnes per annum.

The company holds a 66.6% stake in the KG-D6 block where it is investing about USD5 billion in developing a second set of gas discoveries along with BP. It also has a similar stake in the NEC-25 block in the Bay of Bengal and operates two CBM blocks in Madhya Pradesh. These upstream assets are not part of the O2C unit.

“Reliance O2C (is) one of the most integrated manufacturers of value-added fuels, chemicals and materials,” the presentation said. “O2C to maximize downstream, reduce transportation fuels and create clean and green energy platforms.

Reliance for the first time reported integrated earnings of the O2C business in its third quarter financial results. Previously, refining and petrochemical businesses were reported separately while fuel retailing revenue was part of the firm’s overall retail business.

In the October-December 2020 earnings statement, refining and petrochemical as well as fuel retailing businesses earnings were reported as one. As a result, it did not give refining margins – the most sought after number to assess the firm’s oil refining business.

The company’s EBIDTA grew 10.35% to Rs 9,756 crores (USD1.33 billion) for the period ended December 31, 2020 as against EBIDTA of Rs 8,841 crores (USD1.2 billion) for the previous quarter.

Net sales saw an increase of 10.05% to Rs 83,838 crores (USD11.49 biilion) for the period ended December 31, 2020 as against net sales of Rs 76,184 crores (USD10.44 biilion) during the previous quarter.

As MRC informed earlier, in September 2020, RIL released a detailed plan to carve out its oil-to-chemicals business into a separate entity for a potential stake sale. As per the scheme, RIL’s O2C assets, including its refining, petrochemicals, fuel retail (majority interest only) and bulk wholesale marketing businesses, along with its assets and liabilities, will be transferred to a new unit. The new unit will include the refining and petrochemical plants and manufacturing assets at RIL’s Jamnagar, Dahej, Hazira, Nagothane, Vadodara, Patalganga, Silvassa, Barabanki and Hosiarpur locations.

It will also include all assets relating to RIL’s ongoing refinery and petrochemical projects that are being commissioned or near completion, the company said. RIL had officially announced its proposal to transfer its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business to a separate entity in April.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

Reliance Industries is one of the world's largest producers of polymers. Thus, the company produces among others polypropylene, polyethylene and polyvinyl chloride.
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