MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures edged higher during mid-morning trade in Asia Jan. 27, spurred by bullish data from the American Petroleum Institute and an improved pandemic outlook in the US, even as demand-side uncertainties owing to the progression of coronavirus elsewhere continued to weigh on sentiment, reported S&P Global.
At 10:55 am Singapore time (0255 GMT), the ICE Brent March contract was up 11 cents/b (0.20%) from the Jan. 26 settle to USD56.02/b, while the March NYMEX light sweet crude contract was up 11 cents/b (0.21%) at USD52.72/b.
The uptick comes as data from the American Petroleum Institute released Jan. 26 showed a massive 5.27 million-barrel draw in crude inventories in the week ended Jan. 22. Analysts, in contrast, had told S&P Global Platts that they had expected the draw in the same week to be much smaller at roughly 1.7 million barrels.
"Crude oil prices today are underpinned by a much larger-than-expected weekly draw in inventories, as well as a weakening US Dollar," Margaret Yang, DailyFX strategist, told Platts Jan. 27.
Any increase in crude prices this morning, however, may have been tempered by the bearish elements in the API report, which also indicated that fundamentals in downstream product markets remained weak. US gasoline and distillate inventories jumped by 3.06 million barrels and 1.40 million barrels, respectively, in the week ended Jan. 22.
At 10:55 am, the NYMEX February RBOB contract was trading 0.44 cents/gal (0.28%) lower than the Jan. 26 settle at USD1.5763/gal and NYMEX February ULSD contract was up by 0.04 cents/gal (0.03%) at USD1.5988/gal.
Market participants will now be looking towards more comprehensive inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration to be released later in the day.
Meanwhile, progress towards alleviating the pandemic situation in the US may also have supported oil markets Jan. 27.
"Continuous drop in US daily COVID-19 counts has brightened the energy demand outlook as the likelihood of easing some of the lockdown measures is rising with the rollout of vaccines," Yang told Platts. "US daily COVID-19 new cases have fallen to 133,913 on January 25th, marking the lowest reading since November 15th, according to CDC."
Outside of the US, however, the pandemic situation remained grim. In Europe, countries are considering greater restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, whereas in Asia, demand-side concerns remain heightened following an outbreak in China.
Already, authorities in China have called upon citizens to not travel during the Lunar New Year Holiday, souring sentiment in the oil markets.
"While the general upward direction of travel in the market makes sense, it's difficult for oil traders to make a definitive near-term shift to the next price level higher given the very uncertain near-term demand outlook," surmised Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at Axi, in a Jan. 27 note.
As MRC informed previously, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.
We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.
We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.
Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).
According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
MRC