EIA estimates that global petroleum liquids consumption dropped in 2020

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Responses to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused global demand for petroleum products to fall significantly in 2020. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the world consumed 92.2 MMbpd of petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2020, a 9% decline from the previous year and the largest decline in EIA’s series that dates back to 1980, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.

A supplement to EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) describes developments in global oil consumption during 2020, methods for estimating and forecasting global oil consumption, and expectations for oil consumption in 2021 and 2022.

In its short-term outlook, EIA forecasts changes in US petroleum consumption in response to variables including economic growth, employment growth, vehicle fleet fuel efficiency, and oil prices. For the rest of the world, EIA uses a combination of available real-time data and models based on the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and oil consumption. Because of the unique effects of the pandemic in 2020, EIA relied on a wider set of other indicators to assess non-US energy demand, including third-party indexes that tracked mobility, flights, and government stay-at-home orders and their stringency across countries.

A previous Today in Energy article described how EIA uses data series from our Weekly Petroleum Status Report and our Petroleum Supply Monthly (with a two-month lag in the data) to inform short-term forecasts of US petroleum markets. The United States is the world’s largest consumer of petroleum liquids, accounting for 20% of the global total in 2019.

Other countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) provide monthly consumption data after a two- to three-month lag. Collectively, the 37 OECD member countries consumed 47% of global petroleum liquids in 2019.

Data from non-OECD countries can vary from a two- to three-month lag (in the case of Brazil and India, for example) to a year or more. For this reason, EIA will have near-final data on about half of world oil consumption for 2020 by the first quarter of 2021, with values from the United States, OECD countries, and some non-OECD countries. EIA will add finalized data to its published estimates as information becomes available throughout 2021 and 2022.

The effects of the pandemic continue to present challenges in forecasting global petroleum liquids consumption. More context on these uncertainties is available in the STEO supplement Developments in Global Oil Consumption.

As MRC reported earlier, global oil demand is expected to rise by nearly 7% this year, boosted by quicker vaccine distribution and a better economic outlook, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie's statement. Total liquids demand is expected to average 96.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, 6.3 million bpd higher than last year when the Covid-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented oil demand shock. Refineries under the threat of closure could repurpose the facilities to produce liquid renewables instead of converting into a terminal, which could help oil companies’ aim of achieving carbon neutrality.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Cabot Corporation reported fourth-quarter net income up 46.3% year-on-year (YOY), to USD60 million, on net sales up 2.6%, to USD746 million, said Chemweek.

Adjusted earnings totaled USD1.18/share, up 71.0% YOY and well ahead of analysts’ consensus estimate of 88 cents/share, as reported by Refinitiv (New York, New York). End-market recovery drove the gains in earnings and sales, with substantial recovery on a sequential basis.

"We saw a strengthening recovery in our end markets. Improving demand trends, robust unit margins, disciplined operational execution, and strong performance in our targeted growth initiatives resulted in year-over-year and sequential improvements in financial results,” says Cabot president and CEO Sean Keohane. “Reinforcement materials delivered…strong unit margins and solid volumes. Performance chemicals results improved meaningfully compared to the prior year quarter due to higher sales volumes and improved product mix in our specialty carbons and compounds product lines."

Reinforcement materials segment sales declined 1.1% YOY, to USD375 million, while segment EBIT was up 87.2%, to USD88 million. Performance chemicals segment sales increased 10.3% YOY, to USD267 million, while segment was up 31.7%, to USD54 million. Purification solutions segment sales were flat YOY, at USD59 million, and the segment posted a USD2-million loss, also flat YOY.

As per MRC, Cabot Corp. (Boston, Massachusetts) reports a fiscal fourth-quarter net loss of USD272 million, down from income of USD33 million in the year-ago period. Sales totaled USD659 million, down 20% year-over-year (YOY) from USD827 million. The loss includes USD310 million in after-tax charges, mainly related to the sale and asset impairment of the company’s lignite mine in Texas. Adjusted earnings per share came to USD0.68, down 35% YOY from USD1.05, but well ahead of the average analyst estimate of USD0.58 as compiled by Zacks Investment Research.

We remind that Russia's output of chemical products rose in November 2020 by 9.5% year on year. At the same time, production of basic chemicals increased in the first eleven months of 2020 by 6.6% year on year, according to Rosstat's data. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, polymers in primary form accounted for the greatest increase in the January-November 2020 output. November production of polymers in primary form rose to 896,000 tonnes from 852,000 tonnes in October. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 9,240,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 17.1% year on year.

Cabot Corporation is an American specialty chemicals and performance materials company headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts. The company operates in over 20 countries with 36 manufacturing plants, eight research and development facilities and 28 sales offices.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC)--Danish food additives producer Palsgaard has opened a new production line to make bio-based pellets, said the company.

Palsgaard A/S is driving the trend towards more natural ingredients and additives as industries strive for enhanced sustainability by increasing the use of renewables in their materials sourcing. The Danish pioneer in food emulsifiers has opened a new 10,000 tonnes pellet line that also expands the manufacturer’s production capacity for Einar brand plant-based polymer additives.

"We are seeing a fast-growing demand among consumers, brand owners, packaging designers and plastics manufacturers for more natural materials to reduce fossil depletion and waste,” says Ulrik Aunskj?r, Global Industry Director Non-Food Business Development, Polymer Additives for Palsgaard. “Our expanded production capacity meets these requirements by boosting the availability of food-grade plant-based surfactants and modifiers for polymer manufacturers and compounders."

The expansion of the pellet line also addresses the needs of compounders and processors who may wish to add specific Einar® products to polymers directly rather than as part of a more complex masterbatch formulation. This applies in particular to the use of Einar® anti-static additives for food and other packaging applications, where the availability of pelletised products enables a clean and straightforward process.

Palsgaard offers its Einar® plant-based anti-fog and anti-static additives in several grades tailored to film, injection moulding, foam and coating processes for a wide range of different polymers, from polyolefins and PVC to PET and engineering plastics. Moreover, the Einar® portfolio also includes slip additives, ageing modifiers, mould release agents and dispersing aids. All products have full FDA and EU food-contact approvals.

In addition to the new pellet line, Palsgaard is investing in an advanced spray cooling tower that will raise the company’s spray capacity by at least 30,000 tonnes. The tower is scheduled for commissioning in early 2023 and will be supported by multiple new reaction, distillation and esterification plants – all set to double the production capacity at the manufacturer’s Danish facility in Juelsminde by 2024. In total Palsgaard expects to invest 750 million Danish Kroner (100 million €) in the expanded capacities which, in line with the company’s commitment to sustainability, will not compromise Palsgaard’s carbon neutral status.

We remind that Russia's output of chemical products rose in November 2020 by 9.5% year on year. At the same time, production of basic chemicals increased in the first eleven months of 2020 by 6.6% year on year, according to Rosstat's data. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, polymers in primary form accounted for the greatest increase in the January-November 2020 output. November production of polymers in primary form rose to 896,000 tonnes from 852,000 tonnes in October. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 9,240,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 17.1% year on year.

Palsgaard is a world leader in plant-based emulsifiers and polymer additives for the global food, packaging and plastics industries. Since its founder Einar Viggo Schou invented the modern plant-based food emulsifier in 1917, the company has provided advanced industry know-how and innovation to an increasingly diversified customer base. From application centres around the world, Palsgaard’s experienced technologists support brand owners and manufacturers in optimising their sustainability by the use of natural, renewable ingredients and additives to mitigate their carbon footprint.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Sabic has reported net profit of 2.22 billion Saudi riyals (USD592 million) for the fourth quarter, swinging from a loss of SR890 million in the prior-year period, on sales that rose 4% year on year (YOY) to SR32.85 billion, reported Chemweek.

The fourth-quarter net profit and revenue figures are also up sequentially 104% and 12%, respectively, on the company’s third-quarter figures, due mainly to higher average selling prices, rising demand, and improved margins amid the wider economic recovery, says Sabic CEO Yousef al-Benyan.

The fourth quarter benefited from “sustained economic recovery, which translated into higher demand for our products,” according to Benyan. Product prices rose “driven by healthy demand and a tightness in the supply/demand balance for some of our key products, which resulted from outages and rising oil prices,” leading to higher margins, he says. The YOY swing to profit is mainly attributable to the higher sales volumes and lower average cost of sales, as well as the reversal of impairment provisions in certain capital assets, net of SR300 million, the company states. Impairment provisions of SR1.3 billion were recorded in the prior-year quarter, it notes.

In terms of feedstocks, Brent crude prices rose 3% sequentially in the fourth quarter, Japanese and European naphtha prices increased by about 2%, and Japanese propane and butane prices rose by more than 30%, Sabic says. Cost of sales in the quarter rose 9% sequentially to SR24.73 billion, due mainly to the increase in feedstock prices, it says.

Sabic’s petrochemicals business unit achieved fourth-quarter sales of SR28.99 billion, a quarter-on-quarter (QOQ) rise of 13%, driven by higher average selling prices and volumes. EBITDA of SR6.27 billion were up 18% QOQ, and operational income rose 74% to SR3.64 billion, it says. Ethylene glycol prices increased in the fourth quarter, led by healthy demand coupled with tight supply resulting from outages and a decrease in inventories, particularly in China. For methanol, unplanned outages in the quarter “supported prices considerably,” with healthy demand and reduced inventories, Sabic says. Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices rose in the quarter, driven by improved demand and an increase in feedstock costs, it says. Polycarbonate (PC) prices also saw a significant increase, especially in Asia, supported by stable demand from key end industries and tighter supply resulting from outages in Asia and the US, it adds.

In its agri-nutrients business, Sabic says lower sales volumes caused a 4% fall in revenue QOQ to SR1.50 billion despite average selling prices rising 6%, with EBITDA declining 14% compared with the third quarter to SR510 million. Operational income declined 18% to SR370 million. Urea prices improved QOQ, supported by tighter supply and improved demand, especially from the middle of the fourth quarter, the company says. Urea demand was supported by two Indian tenders of more than 3 million metric tons, as well as healthy demand from Europe, the US, and Brazil later in the fourth quarter, it notes. Supply remains tight due to outages at certain production units, mainly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, it adds.

Sabic reports net profit of SR40 million for full-year 2020, plunging from SR5.2 billion in the prior year, on sales that fell 14% to SR116.96 billion. The decrease in net income is due primarily to lower average selling prices for most products, in addition to the recording of impairment provisions of SR1.3 billion, it says. Impairment provisions of SR2.8 billion were recorded in 2019, it notes.

The company says it expects economic activity to continue improving and is estimating a global GDP growth rate of 4.5–5.0% in 2021, assuming the effective and widespread use of COVID-19 vaccines worldwide. Sabic estimates its full-year 2021 sales volumes will be 2.0–5.0% higher than in 2020, with capital expenditure at a similar level.

Sabic also expects its share of annualized value creation from synergies and collaboration following its acquisition by Saudi Aramco will amount to USD1.5-1.8 billion by 2025, according to Benyan. “Both companies are focused on strategically transforming their growth optimization, joint-venture management, and service delivery model,” he says. Aramco acquired a 70% stake in Sabic in June 2020. Sabic's global business model and the strength of its supply chain “continue to demonstrate their resilience and flexibility, positioning us well for long-term growth,” he says. Despite challenges posed by COVID-19 last year, the company has demonstrated “its ability to enhance our resilience, boost our operational excellence, and strengthen our global supply chain and presence,” he adds.

As MRC informed earlier, in November 2020, SABIC announced the successful commercialization of LEXAN HP92AF Anti-Fog film, targeted especially at demanding COVID-19 protection equipment such as safety face shields and goggles in front-line work environments.

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) ranks among the world's top petrochemical companies. The company is among the world's market leaders in the production of polyethylene, polypropylene and other advanced thermoplastics, glycols, methanol and fertilizers.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Shintech will invest USD1.3bn to expand its manufacturing and packaging facilities in Iberville and West Baton Rouge in Louisiana, the US-based polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producer said, said Chemweek.

The company will make a USD1.25bn investment to increase PVC manufacturing capacity and expand chlor-alkali and vinyl chloride monomer capacity in its Plaquemine facility. The expansion was announced in 2018 and is expected to be completed this year.

Shintech is also expanding its PVC packaging and warehouse operation in its Addis facility. The company is expanding to keep pace with the rising demand for PVC, which is used in a variety of applications including, building and construction industries, healthcare, electronics, automobile, and other sectors.

“Shintech continues to invest in and increase its manufacturing presence in the North American market,” vice president of Manufacturing Danny Cedotal said. The state of Louisiana has offered Shintech a performance-based grant of up to ГЫВ6.6m for the construction, procurement and installation of infrastructure to support the expansion of the project.

The grant is payable in four instalments, contingent upon the company reaching investment and production benchmarks.

As MRC informed earlier, Shintech, a subsidiary of Japan's Shin-Etsu, raised PVC contract prices in January by 4 cents per pound (USD88 per tonne). The company previously announced a 3 cents / lb increase in January PVC contracts and is seeking an additional 3 cents / lb hike in February.

According to MRC's DataScope report, last month's SPVC imports to Russia dropped to 0,600 tonnes from 1,600 tonnes in November. High PVC prices in foreign markets and a seasonal decline in demand in the last two months have put serious pressure on import purchases of PVC from Russian companies. Thus, overall imports were 40,800 tonnes in January-December 2020, compared to 50,900 tonnes a year earlier, with PVC from China and the United States accounting for the main reduction in imports. PVC shipments from these countries decreased by almost a third over the stated period.
MRC