Shell chemicals business swings to strong profit on higher margins, prices

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Shell’s chemicals business has reported strong fourth-quarter earnings of USD367 million on a current cost of supply (CCS) basis, swinging from a loss of USD78 million in the prior-year period, reflecting “higher realized margins in base chemicals and intermediates from a stronger price environment,” reported Chemweek with reference to the company's statement.

The earnings are also substantially higher sequentially on the company’s third-quarter segment earnings of USD131 million.

Adjusted chemicals earnings of USD381 million also swung from a loss of USD65 million a year earlier, and were up 167% sequentially. Shell’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings were boosted by a year-on-year (YOY) increase in base chemicals margins of USD129 million, while intermediate margins rose by USD128 million YOY, it says. Higher base and intermediate chemicals margins were seen across most product segments, along with higher joint venture chemicals income due to improved margins and demand in Asia, it says.

For the first quarter of 2021, Shell is forecasting chemicals sales volumes of 3.6-3.9 million metric tons, with an average manufacturing plant utilization rate of 80–88%. The average plant utilization rate in the fourth quarter was 79%, up from 71% in the prior-year period, due mainly to improved site availability, it says.

Full fiscal year 2020 chemical earnings on a CCS basis rose 69% YOY to $808 million, boosted by the fourth quarter’s higher realized margins from the stronger price environment, partly offset by lower sales volumes due to the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the previous year, Shell says. Adjusted full-year chemicals income of $962 million was up 30% YOY. Average chemicals manufacturing plant utilization for the year was 80%, up from 76% in the prior year, due mainly to higher maintenance activities in Asia and Europe in 2019, in addition to strike actions in the Netherlands that year, it says.

Chemical segment capital expenditure (capex) in the fourth quarter totaled USD830 million, down from USD1.02 billion a year earlier but up USD235 million on the third quarter’s total. Full-year 2020 chemicals capex totaled USD2.64 billion, down from USD4.09 billion in 2019.

Shell reported a group loss of USD4.47 billion for the fourth quarter on a CCS basis, swinging from a profit of USD871 million a year earlier, while its full-year earnings swung to a loss of USD19.92 billion from income of USD15.27 billion in 2019. The loss was due mainly to negative earnings in its upstream, oil products, refining, and corporate segments, caused primarily by lower oil prices, production volumes, demand, and refining margins, as well as previously announced impairment charges. Adjusted fourth-quarter group earnings were $393 million, down 87% from USD2.93 billion in 2019, while adjusted full-year income was USD4.85 billion, down 71% YOY from USD16.46 billion.

Group capex for the full year was cut to USD18.0 billion from USD24.0 billion in 2019, coming in USD2.0 billion under its previously stated goal for 2020 of USD20.0 billion. Operational expenditure totaled USD33.0 billion in 2020, down USD4.5 billion YOY and beating its stated reduction target for the year of USD3.0-4.0 billion.

As MRC wrote before, Royal Dutch Shell has reported an outage at its olefins plant in Deer Park, Texas, USA, on 5 January, 2021. The plant flared for 16 hours following unspecified process upset. Maximum steam cracker operating rate in Texas falls to 89%.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing PE and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020).

Royal Dutch Shell plc is an Anglo-Dutch multinational oil and gas company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands and with its registered office in London, United Kingdom. It is the biggest company in the world in terms of revenue and one of the six oil and gas "supermajors". Shell is vertically integrated and is active in every area of the oil and gas industry, including exploration and production, refining, distribution and marketing, petrochemicals, power generation and trading.
MRC

Linde partners with Hyosung to build hydrogen facility in South Korea

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Linde announced that it has partnered with Hyosung Corporation (Hyosung), one of South Korea's largest industrial conglomerates, to build, own and operate extensive new liquid hydrogen infrastructure in South Korea, said the company.

This robust hydrogen network will support the country's ambitious decarbonization agenda to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. On behalf of the joint venture, Linde will build and operate Asia's largest liquid hydrogen facility. With a capacity of over 30 tons per day, this facility will process enough hydrogen to fuel 100,000 cars and save up to 130,000 tons of carbon dioxide tailpipe emissions each year. Based in Ulsan, the plants will use Linde's proprietary hydrogen liquefaction technology which is currently used to produce approximately half of the world's liquid hydrogen. The first phase of the project is expected to start operations in 2023.

Under the partnership, Linde will sell and distribute the liquid hydrogen produced at Ulsan to the growing mobility market in South Korea. To enable this, the joint venture will build, own and operate a nationwide network of hydrogen refueling stations.

"Hydrogen has emerged as a key enabler of the global energy transition to meet the decarbonization goals set out in the Paris Agreement," said B.S. Sung, President of Linde Korea. "The South Korean government has set ambitious targets for hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles and the widespread, reliable availability of liquid hydrogen will be instrumental to achieving these targets. We are excited to partner with Hyosung to develop the hydrogen supply chain in South Korea."

"Our partnership with Linde is a cornerstone of the development of South Korea's national hydrogen economy and will advance the entire liquid hydrogen value chain across the country, from production and distribution to sales and services," said Cho Hyun-Joon, Chairman of Hyosung Group. "We look forward to working with Linde to further reinforce and strengthen Hyosung as a leader in the global hydrogen energy transition."

As MRC informed earlier, in late 2019, the TOTAL refinery in Leuna awarded Bilfinger two further major contracts worth roughly EUR30 million: the first involves exchanging the reactor systems; the second, performing the turnaround for the plant’s POX methanol facility.

We remind that Total is evaluating new gas cracker project in South Korea as part of petchems growth strategy.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

Linde is a global leader in the production, processing, storage and distribution of hydrogen. It has the largest liquid hydrogen capacity and distribution system in the world. The company also operates the world's first high-purity hydrogen storage cavern, coupled with an unrivaled pipeline network of approximately 1,000 kilometers to reliably supply its customers. Linde is at the forefront in the transition to clean hydrogen and has installed close to 200 hydrogen fueling stations and 80 hydrogen electrolysis plants worldwide. The company offers the latest electrolysis technology through its joint venture ITM Linde Electrolysis GmbH.
MRC

February LDPE prices rose in Russia to record levels

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Despite seasonal factors, February low density polyethylene (LDPE) prices grew significantly, prices reached record levels over the past few years. A similar situation in foreign markets was the main reason, according to ICIS-MRC Price report.

In the previous years, LDPE in the Russian market became cheaper in January-February due to low seasonal demand and oversupply. The current year was an exception. High polyethylene (PE) prices in foreign markets and, as a result, a good export alternative forced Russian producers to increase their LDPE prices similarly in the domestic market. In early February, LDPE prices went up by more than 12% from January.

In November-January, LDPE prices in Europe rose by more than EUR300/tonne, European producers intend to raise their February prices further - by EUR200/tonne. A similar situation was registered in the Turkish market. At the same time, it should be noted that LDPE prices increased by an average of only USD200/tonne over the past three months in Asia.

It was the rapid rise in LDPE prices in several regions of the world over the past few months that was the main reason for the price rise in the Russian market. Some Russian producers contracted LDPE for February shipments to Europe at EUR1,140-1,170/tonne, FCA, which is higher than the price level in the Russian market, even given the increase in early February.

There is no shortage of LDPE in the Russian market, weak demand and record high prices have offset supply restrictions from some producers so far. Thus, there were disruptions in PE shipments from Kazanorgsintez, and Ufaorgsintez also reduced its capacity utilisation by 30% because of the fire.

In early February, spot offer prices for 108 grade LDPE started from Rb117,000/tonne CPT Moscow, including VAT, whereas a couple of weeks ago, prices of this PE grade did not exceed Rb107,000/tonne CPT Moscow, including VAT. The situation is similar for other LDPE grades.

Demand for PE subsided significantly is early February, many converters foundnd it difficult to quickly accept new prices primarily because of the difficulty of transferring the new cost of material to finished products. Some contracts for finished products were settled back in December, when PE prices were down by an average of 15% from February.
MRC

COVID-19 - News digest as of 04.02.2021

1. Albemarle launches USD1.3-billion stock offering, expects sequential sales increase

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Albemarle has commenced a USD1.3-billion common stock offering, to raise funds for multiple lithium expansion projects, according to Chemweek. The projects are in Australia, Chile, and the US. Albemarle will also use the proceeds to pursue “opportunities in China,” and for short-term debt repayment and general corporate purposes, the company says. Shares in Albemarle closed at USD169.35 on 2 February, and reached a 52-week high on 20 January. The company has about 106.5 million shares outstanding. J.P. Morgan is acting as lead book-running manager and underwriter on the offering. The underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to USD195 million additional common shares.

MRC

Crude oil futures rise on bullish US data, improving outlook

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures rose during mid-morning trade in Asia Feb. 3 after the American Petroleum Institute reported a large draw in US crude inventories, underscoring the bullish sentiment being fostered by improved demand-supply fundamentals across the oil market, reported S&P Global.

At 10:46 am Singapore time (0246 GMT), the ICE Brent April contract was up 26 cents/b (0.45%) from the Feb. 2 settle at USD57.72/b, while the March NYMEX light sweet crude contract was up 27 cents/b (0.49%) at USD55.03/b.

The rise in oil futures came after API data released late Feb. 2 showed a sizable 4.26 million-barrel draw in US crude inventories in the week to Jan. 29. The data also indicated a marginal improvement in fundamentals for downstream markets, reporting 240,000-barrel and 1.62 million-barrel draws in US gasoline and distillate inventories, respectively.

The market will look to more comprehensive inventory data due for release by the Energy Information Administration later Feb. 3 for confirmation. If the EIA data validates the API data, oil markets could receive yet another boost.

Oil markets had already been turning bullish as demand in the physical market ticks higher and Saudi Arabia's 1 million b/d output cut begins to constrict supply.

"Oil continues to strengthen today with Brent just shy of USD58/b before profit-taking set in. Considerable activity in the physical market is behind the move," said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi, in a Feb. 3 note.

The slow amelioration of the coronavirus pandemic in parts of the world has inspired further confidence in the demand outlook for oil.

Analysts noted that both infection and hospitalization numbers in the US were declining and that the Biden administration was on track to meet its target of administering 100 million vaccinations in 100 days. China also seems to have stemmed a coronavirus resurgence that had oil analysts worried in January, reporting only 25 infections Feb. 2, a one-month low.

"Crude prices are rallying as the US has turned a critical corner in the fight against COVID-19... the biggest risk remains a setback in Chinese crude demand and so far that does not seem to be happening," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, in a Feb. 3 note.

The market also has its eyes set on the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting scheduled for later Feb. 3, which will provide a preview for the OPEC+ meeting in March, when the alliance is expected to unveil its production plan going forward.

"The big question (for the meeting) is how this rapid price rise might open up another potential can of worms for OPEC as members will want to pump more oil, not to mention US shale will be eager to step on the production accelerators," Innes said.

As MRC informed previously, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, exluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020).
MRC