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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Global demand for
oil-based marine fuels is set to fall in the next three decades as stricter
carbon emissions rules for the shipping industry kick in and alternative fuel
use climbs, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.
The
U.N.'s International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to formally adopt energy
efficiency regulations in June that aim to reduce the carbon footprint of new
and existing ships by 40% by 2030 compared with 2008 levels. By 2050 the IMO
aims to reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions from ships by 50% from 2008
levels.
Adoption of the upcoming efficiency rules would achieve the IMO's
2030 target and cause a decline in global bunker fuel demand of around 370,000
barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 compared to the current outlook, Iain Mowat, a
principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Even with these reductions,
global consumption of marine fuels, currently estimated at just under 5 million
bpd, is expected to grow to 5.9 million bpd by 2030, said Mowat. The use of
liquefied natural gas (LNG) in marine fuels could limit the growth in carbon
emissions from the shipping sector and is expected to further displace nearly
700,000 bpd of oil bunkers by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said in a report on
Friday.
"In our current outlook we have the overall size of the marine
bunker market dropping to less than 5.6 million bpd by 2050, of which oil
bunkers accounts for less than 3.6 million bpd," said Mowat. But with LNG's
carbon content still high relative to low-carbon alternatives, demand growth for
the super-chilled fuel as a shipping fuel will also slow after 2040 as
zero-carbon fuels, such as methanol and ammonia produced from green hydrogen,
become more prevalent, said Mowat.
"A major shift towards low- and
zero-carbon fuels by 2050 is absolutely required to reach IMO's target to halve
overall greenhouse gas emissions," he said, resulting in a further 900,000 bpd
decline in oil bunker demand by 2050.
As MRC informed before,
earlier this week, ExxonMobil Corp said it will close its 72-year-old Altona
refinery in Australia, the country’s smallest, and convert it to a fuel import
terminal as refiners struggle with low demand.
According to MRC's ScanPlast report,
Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2%
year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density
polyethylene (HDPE) increased. |
