Demand for crude oil will rise, despite emphasis on renewables

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Oil demand is expected to increase over the next decade and the fossil fuel will remain to be a crucial part of the energy mix, even as renewables draw increasing attention, reported Reuters with reference to Hess Corp Chief Executive John Hess' statement at CERAWeek.

At the biggest gathering of top energy leaders, investors and politicians from around the globe, climate change and renewable fuels are taking center stage this year with oil companies trying to reorient their portfolios as the fossil fuel industry reels from the coronavirus pandemic, which destroyed fuel demand and caused the loss of thousands of jobs.

"We don't think peak oil is around the corner - we see oil demand growing for the next 10 years," Hess said. "We're not investing enough to grow oil and gas in the future," he said, explaining that prices would need to rise to support that investment.

While demand is likely to recover sharply after the pandemic, supply is going to be slower to resume, he said, as shale producers, in particular, operate conservatively to meet shareholder's needs.

As MRC informed previously, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- AkzoNobel has strengthened its paints business and footprint in Spain by completing the acquisition of 100% of the shares of Spanish decorative paints maker Titan Paints for an undisclosed fee, as per the company's press release.

The transaction includes Titan Paints' three production plants in El Prat (Barcelona), Las Palmas (Canary Islands), and Maia in Portugal, seven logistics and service centers for decorative paints, the company said in a statement.

Titan Paints generated sales of about EUR80m in 2019 and has 425 employees.

The deal was first announced in October 2020.

As MRC reported earlier, AkzoNobel N.V. no longer intends to acquire Tikkurila following a higher competing offer from US paints and coatings producer PPG Industries, according to the company's press release on 8 February, 2021. Akzo Nobel submitted a binding proposal to acquire Tikkurila for EUR31.25 per share on January 28, 2021, having conducted customary due diligence to confirm potential synergies. The company no longer intends to pursue this acquisition, following a competing, higher, offer for Tikkurila. Despite a strong cultural fit - and more synergies than any other combination with Tikkurila - the intended transaction no longer meets AkzoNobel’s criteria for superior value creation.

We remind that Russia's output of chemical products rose in November 2020 by 9.5% year on year. At the same time, production of basic chemicals increased in the first eleven months of 2020 by 6.6% year on year, according to Rosstat's data. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, polymers in primary form accounted for the greatest increase in the January-November 2020 output. November production of polymers in primary form rose to 896,000 tonnes from 852,000 tonnes in October. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 9,240,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 17.1% year on year.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Zhongtian Hechuang Co Ltd, part of Sinopec, has been operating its both polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) plants at Inner Mongolia site at 100% capacity utilisation since last week, according to CommoPlast with reference to a source closed to the company.

Actually, the company reduced as much as 15% production rate of both its PP and PE plants last week because of red alert on sand storm at Inner Mongolia side, market sources said,

A source closed to the company informed that virtually the plants had been running at 115% previously, with current reduction rate of 15% to 100%, the production rate considering still on full production hence the impact toward supply is minor at the moment.

These plants with the capacity of 350,000 tons/year of PP, 300,000 tons/yea ofr high density polyethylene (HDPE) and 370,000 tons/year of low density (LDPE) plants are located in Erdos, Inner Mongolia, China.

As MRC informed earlier, in mid-January, 2021, Wood secured a contract valued at over USD120 million with Sinopec Hainan Refining and Chemical Limited Company (Sinopec) to provide engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services to expand its refinery development in the Hainan Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in South China.

Once completed, the ethylene renovation and expansion project will produce up to one million tonnes of ethylene derivatives and refined oil on an annual basis and is expected to boost economic growth in China’s downstream sector by more than 100 billion yuan (USD14.1 billion). Output from the Hainan FTZ will serve ethylene demand across China and globally.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.

Zhongtian Hechuang Energy is a joint venture between Sinopec (38.75%), China Coal Group (38.75%), Shenergy Group Co., Ltd. (12.5%), and Inner Mongolia Manshi Coal Group (10%).
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Satellite Petrochemical is planning to partner with French’s industry gas provider Air Liquide to construct an integrated new material and new energy project at Dushangang in China’s Zhejiang province, said Yicaiglobal.

Under the agreement, Satellite will invest yuan (CNY) 10.2bn (USD1.57bn) to build an 800,000 tonne/year propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant, an 800,000 tonne/year butanol unit and a 120,000 tonne/year neopentyl glycol (NPG) unit, together with some supporting facilities.

Air Liquide (China) will construct hydrogen refilling and liquefaction facilities, with 3,000 tonne/year refilling stations to be set up as the first phase and a 11,000 tonne/year liquefaction facility to be established as the second phase. The companies target to start construction before November this year and begin operation before June 2024.

As MRC wrote earlier, in September 2020, Air Liquide finalised an agreement with Sasol to acquire the biggest oxygen production site in the world with a plan to reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 30%. After the announcement on July 29, the international major industry gas company has now entered into a business purchase agreement with Sasol to acquire the oxygen production site in Secunda, South Africa.

We remind that Sasol's world-scale US ethane cracker with the capacity of 1.5 mln tonnes per year reached beneficial operation on 27 August 2019. Sasol's new cracker, the heart of LCCP, is the third and most significant of the seven LCCP facilities that came online and will provide feedstock to the company's six new derivative units at Sasol's Lake Charles multi-asset site.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

1. Asia Distillates-Gasoil cracks decline fourth week in a row

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asian refining margins for 10 ppm gasoil fell last Friday, posting their fourth consecutive weekly reduction, while cash discounts for the industrial fuel widened amid muted demand in the physical market, reported Reuters. Refining margins, or cracks, for 10 ppm gasoil dipped 4 cents to $5.91 per barrel over Dubai crude during Asian trading hours. Cracks for the benchmark gasoil grade in Singapore have slipped 2.2% this week, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. The cracks remain at their weakest seasonal levels on record, weighed down by a sluggish demand recovery, and steady export volumes emerging from China and India that is keeping the region grappling with ample supplies. Gasoil exports from India this month are expected to exceed February's total of 1.85 million tonnes, while March-loading diesel exports from China are expected to be in a range of 2.2 million-2.3 million tonnes, Refinitiv Oil Research assessments showed. But traders remain hopeful the gasoil market would strengthen in coming months as COVID-19 vaccinations help governments lift mobility restrictions and industrial activities pick up more steam, while upcoming spring turnarounds at regional refineries would tighten supplies.


MRC