Crude rises after protracted sell-off, markets brace for OPEC+ meeting

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures ticked up during the mid-morning trade in Asia March 3 as the market regained its footing after an overnight sell-off, with investors attention now focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, reported S&P Global.

At 11:07 am Singapore time (0307 GMT), the ICE Brent May contract was up by 32 cents/b (0.51%) from the March 2 settle to USD63.02/b, while the April NYMEX light sweet crude contract was up by 26 cents/b (0.44%) to USD60.64/b.

Both markers have been on a downward trajectory since late last week, falling 5.16% and 5.95% from the Feb. 25 settle to close at USD62.70/b and USD59.75/b respectively on March 2.

The slight rise in prices comes as investors carry out bargain hunting activities to take advantage of low prices following the protracted sell-off, even as uncertainty over the upcoming OPEC+ meeting continues to grip the markets, potentially leading to unpredictable price movements.

"There is been an uninterrupted sell-off in crude since last week, as the market has progressively priced-in the return of supply following the US deep freeze, and for the rest of this week, there will be volatility in the market as the market awaits the OPEC+ meeting and grapples with erratic US stocks data," Vandana Hari, CEO of Vanda Insights told S&P Global Platts on March 3.

Market analysts generally expect the March 4 OPEC+ meeting to conclude with the coalition easing production quotas by up to 500,000 b/d from April onwards, and with Saudi Arabia choosing not to extend its unilateral 1 million b/d output cut. Both these outcomes could see up to 1.5 million b/d of oil returning into the market.

"If the total figure is between 1-1.5 million b/d, prices will move on after the OPEC+ meeting and start tracking the bubbling optimism over the economic climate and over rising oil demand," said Hari.

Meanwhile, API data, released on March 2, showed a massive 7.36 million barrel build in US crude inventories during the week ended Feb. 26. The impact of the build in US crude inventories however was somewhat offset by large draws in US product inventories, with gasoline inventories and distillate inventories plummeting 9.93 million barrels and 9.053 million barrels respectively.

Market participants will now be looking towards more comprehensive inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration, scheduled to be released later on March 3.

As MRC informed previously, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Low-cost oil will be needed even as the world is in an energy transition, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, reported Reuters with reference to chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and minister of state for the United Arab Emirates' statements at CERAWeek by IHS Markit.

"The world will still need oil and gas for many decades to come, no question about that," he said. Oil demand will rebound led by recovery from the coronavirus pandemic in China and India, he said.

ADNOC has cut its operating costs by operating with more technological efficiency, he said.

As MRC reported previously, in early May, 2020, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began a gradual restart of its Ruwais oil refinery complex after a scheduled maintenance shutdown. The Ruwais complex, which has capacity of 835,000 barrels per day, was shut down early this year, the ADNOC spokesman said.

And in late July 2019, ADNOC said its Ruwais refinery west cracker was offline for maintenance.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Texas petrochemical producers continued on March 1 restart efforts at plants shut during sustained sub-freezing temperatures the week of Feb. 15, with much attention focused on bringing olefin plants back online to provide critical feedstocks for derivatives, reported S&P Global.

"It's going to be a while" before production chains resume normal output, a market source said, noting that inspections involve a process of discovery "to determine if everything is okay."

Multiple sources noted that process has been deliberate given the sheer magnitude of pipes and equipment exposed to frigid temperatures that rarely hit the region for at least 72 hours straight as they did the week of Feb. 15.

"Many complexes are interdependent operations, so they have to start up sequentially," a source noted. If one unit in such a production chain is unable to restart at the same time, others have to wait.

"It is what it is and you've got to be patient," the source added.

At its height, the freeze took about 75% of 40 million mt/year of US ethylene capacity offline, with the vast majority along the Texas Coast. Some has resumed operations, while others remain shut amid inspections or have faced ups and downs during restart efforts, market sources said.

As MRC wrote before, Exxon Mobil Corp has restarted the gasoline-producing and diesel-producing units at its 369,024 barrel-per-day (bpd) oil refinery in Beaumont, Texas. Almost all of the refinery’s units have restarted since being shut by freezing weather on Feb. 15. The 120,000-bpd gasoline-producing fluidic catalytic cracker (FCC) and 65,000-bpd diesel-producing hydrocracker restarted on Saturday.

ExxonMobil's operational shutdowns include polyethylene (PE) facilities amid power outages prompted by the deep freeze that has enveloped the US Gulf Coast. "This event has caused widespread power outages across Texas and Louisiana" Feb. 15," the letter, dated Feb. 16, said. "As a consequence, several ExxonMobil Chemical operations have experienced loss of power and other key utilities, impacting our ability to resume full operations." ExxonMobil operates three PE units in Mont Belvieu, Texas, with combined capacity of 880,000 mt/year, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.

Exxon is among many petrochemical producers that shut Feb. 14 and subsequent days because of sustained extreme sub-freezing temperatures in the region. ExxonMobil previously confirmed Feb. 16 that the company had shut all refining and chemical operations at its Baytown and Beaumont, Texas, complexes. Ethylene produced at Baytown feeds the Mont Belvieu PE operations.

Ethylene is the main feedstock for the production of PE.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased.

ExxonMobil is the largest non-government owned company in the energy industry and produces about 3% of the world"s oil and about 2% of the world's energy.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Global oil demand is recovering and could return to around pre-pandemic levels next year, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco told an oil and gas conference, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Global demand for oil is likely to recover from the second half of the year and could reach 99 MMbpd in 2022, Amin Nasser said at IHS Markit's online CERAWeek conference.

Diesel demand has recovered globally due to door-to-door deliveries, though jet fuel lags as people avoid long flights, said Chevron CEO Michael Wirth, who spoke on a panel with Nasser.

Oil demand improving in China, India and East Asia, with vaccine deployment as "cause for optimism" in the West, Nasser said.

As per MRC, Saudi Aramco and Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) have decided to reevaluate their crude-oil-to-chemicals project in Yanbu on the kingdom's west coast. The USD20 billion project may be downsized to use Aramco's existing facilities in the port city, instead of building a new plant.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Chemieanlagenbau Chemnitz (CAC) has been assigned by OMV with overall responsibility for the construction of a biofuel plant, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

With this project CAC is realizing one of the first large-scale plants in Europe to use innovative co-processing to produce carbon-neutral fuels. For this purpose biogenic input materials are processed together in combination with fossil, oil-based raw material in a hydrogenation facility at the refinery. The Vienna-based international oil, gas and chemicals company is investing about 200 million euros in the conversion at the site in Schwechat (Austria). This is in line with the EU requirement for biofuels to adhere to strict ecological and social criteria throughout the value chain.

With this process, the hydrogenated vegetable oil should lead to an annual reduction in OMV’s carbon footprint of up to 360,000 metric tons of fossil CO2. This is equivalent to the annual emissions of around 200,000 cars driving an average of 12,000 km per year. The product meets the highest quality standards and can be freely used in any type of vehicle. The technology applied is not limited to vegetable oil – waste products (such as used cooking oil) and advanced feedstocks are also possible and will be used based on availability. OMV expects demand for its hydrogenated biofuels to increase ten-fold by 2030.

"With this project we are joining OMV in taking a further step towards sustainable mobility,” declared Jorg Engelmann, managing director of CAC, which is currently launching its technology for manufacturing synthetic gasoline on an industrial scale onto the market. “Only with technological openness we can provide rapid and sustainable protection for our environment."

With overall responsibility for all phases of the project, CAC is undertaking detail engineering, including project management and project controlling, procurement services and construction site management. This includes the supply of equipment and bulk materials (piping, instrumentation, electrotechnical material) as well as responsibility for construction and assembly work.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.
MRC