COVID-19 - News digest as of 05.03.2021

1. Chinese demand recovery hopes fade for Atlantic Basin crude sellers

MOSCOW (MRC) -- With barrels of crude oil that will arrive in China in May now changing hands, hopes that demand from its refiners for African and European crude would tick higher following spring maintenance may have been premature, reported S&P Global. After a bumper 2020 for sales to China, 2021 has got off to a slow start with demand for long-haul crude hit by higher flat prices, refinery maintenance season and fresh restrictions on mobility on the back of an uptick in coronavirus levels which coincided with Lunar New Year celebrations. About 50 million mt/year of refining capacity at six state-owned refineries - five Sinopec and one CNOOC - was expected to be shut over the March-April period, while May could also witness some maintenance, albeit at a relatively lower level, industry data and information collected by S&P Global Platts showed.


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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures rose during mid-morning trade in Asia March 5, even as a stronger US dollar slowed the rally triggered by the OPEC+ decision to keep production quotas largely steady in April, reported S&P Global.

At 11:14 am Singapore time (0314 GMT), the ICE Brent May contract was up by 68 cents/b (1.01%) from the March 4 settle to USD67.42/b, while the April NYMEX light sweet crude contract was up by 60 cents/b (0.94%) to USD64.43/b.

The overwhelmingly bullish sentiment in the oil market was held back slightly by the rapid appreciation in the US dollar, which made crude more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. At 11.00 am in Singapore, the March ICE US dollar index futures were trading at 91.670, up 0.801% from the March 4 settle.

"The markets are on a bit of a fence this morning despite the bullish OPEC+ decision, as rising treasury yields and safe haven demand has pushed the US dollar up, and a risk-off sentiment has gripped the markets," Pan Jingyi, senior market strategist at IG, told S&P Global Platts March 5.

The appreciation in the dollar has provided some resistance to the surge in oil prices after the OPEC+ alliance decided to keep production quotas largely steady for the month of April, with Saudi Arabia extending its unilateral 1 million b/d output cut indefinitely. Only Russia and Kazakhstan were granted 130,000 b/d and 20,000 b/d increases in their production quota, respectively.

The coalition's decision means that it will keep 8 million b/d of crude production - or roughly 8% of pre-pandemic supply - off the market for at least another month. The oil market reacted by sending the Brent and NYMEX light sweet crude markers hurtling 4.17% and 4.16% higher to settle at USD66.74/b and USD63.83/b, respectively, on March 4.

Delegates to the OPEC+ meeting said the decision was prompted by lingering uncertainty over the economic recovery, which could still be derailed by uneven vaccine rollouts and stringent lockdown measures.

"I belong to the school of being conservative," Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said after the meeting, having earlier told OPEC+ that "the right course of action now is to keep our powder dry, and to have contingencies in reserve to insure against any unforeseen outcomes."

The OPEC+ decision came as a surprise to the market, which had braced itself for the possibility of a significant increase in the coalition's supply from April onwards, and had at the very least expected Saudi Arabia to end its 1 million b/d production cut.

"Expectations were high for the Saudis to end their voluntary 1 million b/d cut and for the group to collectively raise output by 500,000 barrels," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a March 5 note.

"Oil prices could rip higher now that a tight market is likely up through the summer. WTI Crude at USD75/b no longer seem outlandish and Brent could easily top $80/b by the summer," Moya added.

As MRC informed previously, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Dow Chemical has been resuming operations at its propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit in Freeport, Texas, reported S&P Global.

This PDH unit with the capacity of 750,000 mt/year of propylene was taken off-stream on 16 February, 2021, because of very low temperatures in the region.

As MRC informed earlier, last year, Dow Chemical conducted a scheduled maintenance at its PDH unit in Freeport. Thus, the planned turnaround started in the week ended July 10 and lasted for 45 days.

Propylene is the main feedstock for the production of polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.

The Dow Chemical Company is an American multinational chemical corporation. Dow is a large producer of plastics, including polystyrene, polyurethane, polyethylene, polypropylene, and synthetic rubber.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- BASF says it is strengthening its activities in R&D for sustainable agricultural innovations, with more than 30 major R&D projects complementing BASF’s "connected offer" of seeds and seed-treatment products, chemical and biological solutions, as well as digital services by 2030, said Chemweek.

This brings the company’s pipeline of agricultural solutions to an estimated peak sales potential of more than EUR7.5 billion (USD9.0 billion), supporting BASF’s aim to increase its sales share of agricultural solutions with substantial contribution to sustainability by 7% annually, it says.

"By 2050, farmers will have to feed an estimated 9.7 billion people, requiring an increase in productivity of 50%. Digitalization has the potential to make an important contribution to this," BASF says. As a response, the company is advancing its digital technologies together with other innovations across its whole portfolio. This combination will allow farmers to achieve better yield on existing arable land, and support biodiversity preservation, BASF says.

Other innovations that will help meet growing demand for sustainably produced food include BASF’s advanced insecticides portfolio and new seed varieties. Meanwhile, the company is investing in research on indoor growing systems such as growing lettuce in hydroponic systems. These require less land, save water compared with traditional open-field cultivation, and reduce the need for conventional crop protection, the company says.

BASF spent EUR840 million on R&D in the agricultural solutions segment in 2020. This represents about 11% of the segment’s sales, it says. In 2021, the company says it will continue to invest in R&D into agricultural innovations at a high level.

BASF has committed to sustainability targets for its agriculture business by 2030. It aims to increase the annual sales share of sustainable agricultural solutions, and support farmers to reduce their CO2 emissions by 30% per metric ton of crop produced. The company adds that it “strives to apply digital technologies on more than 400 million hectares of farmland cumulatively by 2030, while continuing to ensure the safe use of its products."

As per MRC, BASF says a “continued and rapid escalation” in raw material costs and availability, as well as higher manufacturing and transportation costs, has prompted it to increase its formulation and performance additives prices in North America by up to 10%. The increase will be effective 1 April 2021, or as contracts permit.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Scientific Aviation announced the launch of Project Falcon, a 6-month joint industry partner study that aims to determine the best way to deploy continuous methane monitoring technology that will allow energy companies to find, detect, and repair methane leaks faster, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy, ExxonMobil, Pioneer Natural Resources, Shell and TRP Energy will test Scientific Aviation’s SOOFIE (Systematic Observations of Facility Intermittent Emissions) system, an affordable ground-based technology that measures methane emissions 24 hours a day, in real-world environments, and immediately alerts operators about issues. The tests will be conducted in Colorado, New Mexico and Texas starting in March 2021. The data and results will be made available to the industry, regulators and the public through publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

"As the scientific community, the United Nations, and countless others have issued dire warnings about the impact of greenhouse gases on earth’s environment, the fight to combat this problem will take energy and technology companies working together to accelerate change,” said Dr. Stephen Conley, president of Scientific Aviation. “These companies have determined that doing all they can to protect the environment requires collaboration. We are excited to see how much can be done when the energy industry joins together to tackle a problem as important as protecting the environment."

The foundation of Project Falcon is Scientific Aviation’s SOOFIE system: a self-contained leak detection system in which each sensor contains its own solar panel, battery, cellular or WiFi connectivity, and the ability to take five methane measurements per second. SOOFIE also captures atmospheric conditions that are essential to the calculation of actual emission rates, rather than measuring concentration levels which can be susceptible to producing many false alarms. SOOFIE is also able to measure other gases, such as H2S, NO and NO2.

"Methane emissions detection and reduction should be a shared goal that industry works proactively and collaboratively to achieve, which is why we are proud to support efforts like Project Falcon” said Vanessa Ryan, manager of carbon reduction. "At Chevron we believe the future of energy is lower carbon, and we are actively addressing the reduction of methane emissions by using data, technology and innovation to prioritize the most efficient detection and reduction strategies."

ConocoPhillips has long been committed to reducing emissions from its facilities, including the development of new technologies designed to better detect where the sources of these emissions are and allowing them to prioritize their resources to address larger leaks faster. "To battle fugitive methane emissions from our facilities more effectively, we knew we had to employ the latest technologies and use the best tools available to us” said Khalid Soofi, Geoscience Fellow at ConocoPhillips. “We needed a way to reliably monitor our facilities more effectively, including facilities that aren’t regularly staffed and are often very remote."

Mike Smith, EHS Advisor for Devon Energy, said “At Devon, we continuously search for innovative ways to help us further reduce our emissions footprint. This program is another way not only to help us more precisely understand, measure, and quantify our emissions, but also to enhance our capacity to rapidly identify and reduce leaks. We are excited to participate in this important initiative that we think will benefit the broader energy industry."

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.
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