Demand for gasoline may not return to pre-pandemic levels

MOSCOW (MRC) - Gasoline demand may never recover to pre-pandemic levels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, with increased use in developing countries offset by rising fuel efficiency and a switch to electric vehicles in wealthy nations, Reuters.

In last year's five-year outlook before the COVID-19 pandemic's full force was felt in Western countries, the IEA said that gasoline demand was approaching a plateau and kept its demand outlook figure steady from 2024 to 2025.

However, remote working during the pandemic has helped to hollow out demand, the IEA said on Wednesday, and commuting is likely to remain curtailed in 2021 and in the coming years.

"Global gasoline consumption is unlikely to ever return to its 2019 level," the IEA said on Wednesday in its Oil 2021 five-year outlook. "Strong growth in developing countries is no longer enough to offset declines within the OECD, where fuel efficiency improvements are making an impact.

"Consumption should continue to rise strongly in 2022 ... narrowing the gap with pre-pandemic levels. However, beyond that, gasoline demand is likely to stagnate for several years."

As it was earlier written, hopes of a speedy aviation recovery this year have been knocked back by global travel restrictions after the emergence of new coronavirus variants and a slower than expected vaccination rollout, dimming the outlook for jet fuel demand and oil prices.

During January, chemical production grew across all regions. Headline global production was up 9.5% year-over-year (Y/Y) on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. Global output stood at 129.0% of its average 2012 levels. Output was down a year ago due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We remind that Russia's output of chemical products rose in November 2020 by 9.5% year on year. At the same time, production of basic chemicals increased in the first eleven months of 2020 by 6.6% year on year, according to Rosstat's data. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, polymers in primary form accounted for the greatest increase in the January-November 2020 output. November production of polymers in primary form rose to 896,000 tonnes from 852,000 tonnes in October. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 9,240,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 17.1% year on year.
MRC

(MOSCOW (MRC) -- Evonik presents a new material technology for printable batteries at the virtual exhibition LOPEC, as per the company's press release.

The specialty chemicals group together with the company InnovationLab proves the integration of TAeTTOOz technology in printed electronics to open up new applications. TAeTTOOz was develop based on so-called redox polymers from Creavis, the strategic innovation unit from Evonik.

With TAeTTOOz Evonik presents an innovative technology for the efficient production of rechargeable battery cells.

The new materials can be processed with screen printing into very thin and flexible batteries. Compared to regular batteries, organic polymer batteries have a number of advantages. They can be produced with regular printing methods, which allows a high degree of design freedom. Additionally, the battery materials do not contain metals or metal compounds.

"We are very pleased to be working with InnovationLab”, says Dr. Michael Korell, responsible at Evonik for the development of TAeTTOOz. “With the TAeTTOOz technology, we want to enable new applications. Especially with the increasing interconnection of everyday life objects - in the 'Internet of Things' - the development of a metal-free and printable energy storage solution opens up future areas of application”.

In the health sector, sensors to monitor vital function can be worn much more comfortably when using printed batteries. In the field of logistics, sensors powered with printed batteries can also monitor packaging, like in the supply chain of sensitive goods, including vaccines or food.

As MRC informed earlier, in February, 2020, Dow and Evonik entered into an exclusive technology partnership. Together, they plan to bring a unique method for directly synthesizing propylene glycol (PG) from propylene and hydrogen peroxide to market maturity.

Propylene is the main feedstock for the production of polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.

Evonik is one of the world leaders in specialty chemicals. The focus on more specialty businesses, customer-oriented innovative prowess and a trustful and performance-oriented corporate culture form the heart of Evonik’s corporate strategy. They are the lever for profitable growth and a sustained increase in the value of the company. Evonik benefits specifically from its customer proximity and leading market positions. Evonik is active in over 100 countries around the world with more than 36,000 employees.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- India and the UAE negotiate ways to strengthen their energy cooperation, reported Reuters with reference to India's oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan's statement.

The discussion was held despite the South Asian nation asking its refiners to reduce their reliance on Middle Eastern oil.

"(We) discussed about new areas of cooperation in the hydrocarbon sector and beyond, and agreed to remain committed despite the challenges presented by Covid pandemic," Pradhan said on Twitter after a virtual meeting with Sultan Al Jaber, the chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC).

UAE is a key oil supplier to India and a partner in an Indian joint venture that plans to build a 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) refinery and petrochemical complex on the country's west coast.

In February, the UAE was the fifth biggest oil supplier to India, which itself is the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer.

Pradhan said he also discussed with Jaber ways of strengthening and "providing momentum to (the) bilateral strategic energy partnership" between the countries.

India imports more than 80% of its oil needs, a significant amount of which comes from the Middle East.

New Delhi has, however, asked refiners to gradually reduce oil imports from the Middle East and diversify supplies, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, decided to extend most curbs into April.

India has been hit hard by rising oil prices, due to which minister Pradhan has repeatedly called on OPEC+ to ease supply curbs and has blamed Saudi Arabia's voluntary cuts for contributing to a spike in global oil prices.

Responding to Pradhan's request, Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman suggested India dip into strategic reserves filled with cheaper oil bought last year.

The UAE's ADNOC is the only foreign company to which India has leased a part of it strategic petroleum reserves. India does not allow the export of oil but has given permission to ADNOC to export part of its oil in Mangalore SPR in southern India.

As MRC informed before, Indian Oil has just announced plans to expand the capacity of its refinery at Panipat, India, from 15 million metric tons/year (MMt/y), to 25 MMt/y. The company will also build a polypropylene (PP) unit and a catalytic dewaxing unit at the site. The cost of the project is 329.46 billion Indian rupees (USD4.45 billion). The plan is the latest in a series of projects approved by Indian Oil to improve integration with petrochemicals at the company's refinery sites. The capacity of the planned PP facility has not been disclosed.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated polyethylene (PE) consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) – Last month’s winter storm paralyzed the US petrochemical industry, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Operations at US Gulf Coast petrochemical facilities have yet to fully recover one month after freezing temperatures triggered wide-spread power outages and plant shutdowns. Wood Mackenzie’s olefins, polyolefins, paraxylene and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) experts look at ongoing disruptions and what they mean for the country’s petrochemical operations and supply chains.

More than 80% of US olefins capacity was immediately offline following the peak of extreme weather conditions in mid-February. During that time, Wood Mackenzie noted it could take weeks to recover given that disruptions across the value chain would lead to a staggered and complex restart, setting the stage for volatility in supply and prices amid stronger demand.

As of mid-March, the US olefins industry has yet to regain its footing with only 60% of capacity back in operation, according to data from Genscape, a Wood Mackenzie company. Several facilities in both the Houston and Corpus Christi metropolitan areas remain shut. Those further west appear to be experiencing longer outages, likely due to encountering relatively colder temperatures during the winter storm.

While the supply of these important chemical building blocks dropped during outages, demand for their end-use products has not. Ethylene prices have responded to this imbalance by reaching almost seven-year highs, according to Wood Mackenzie’s price history. Polymer grade propylene prices touched all-time highs immediately following the freeze but have since fallen and stabilized at near three-year highs. High olefin prices are expected to continue after the restart process is fully complete as the units work through a backlog of pent-up derivative demand.

During January, chemical production grew across all regions. Headline global production was up 9.5% year-over-year (Y/Y) on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. Global output stood at 129.0% of its average 2012 levels. Output was down a year ago due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As MRC informed earlier, sales of high density polyethylene (LDPE) in the United States and Canada rose 3.8% in January 2021 compared to the same month a year earlier. While the production of LDPE grew by 5.2% over the same period of time. Total sales increased by 2.3%, despite a 0.7% decline in export sales.

At the same time, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) sales in the United States and Canada were up 5% in January 2021 from the same month in the prior year. HDPE production increased by 1% over the same period. Domestic demand for HDPE has strengthened in recent months as demand for consumer durables has been strong since the second half of 2020 amid continued growth in manufacturing activity in the United States.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Versalis, the chemicals subsidiary of Italian energy major Eni (Rome, Italy), has declared a force majeure (FM) on its low density polyethylene (LDPE) deliveries from its plant in Ragusa, Italy, according to NCT with reference to sources familiar with the matter.

Thus, the FM was declared at the company's plant with the capacity of 110,000 tons/year of LDPE on March 5. 2021.

The force majeure was caused by technical issues, sources said.

It has been unclear so far when the FM will be lifted, while the company could not be reached for confirmation.

As MRC reported before, in early February 2021, Versalis S.p.A. licensed to Enter Engineering Pte. Ltd. an LDPE/ethyl vinyl acetate (EVA) swing unit to be built as part of a new Gas-to-Chemical Complex based on MTO-Methanol to Olefins technology to be located in the Karakul area in the Bukhara region of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The plant is part of a global complex that will have a major importance in Central Asia due to its size and the technologies involved.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, January estimated LDPE consumption in Russia grew to 61,210 tonnes from 43,090 tonnes a year earlier. Russian producers increased their capacity utilisation, and export LDPE shipments decreased. Russia's estimated LDPE consumption was about 563,730 tonnes in 2020, up by 1% year on year.

Eni is an Italian multinational oil and gas company headquartered in Rome. It has operations in in 79 countries, and is currently Italy's largest industrial company. The Italian government owns a 30.3% golden share in the company, 3.93% held through the state Treasury and 26.37% held through the Cassa depositi e prestiti. Another 39.40% of the shares are held by BNP Paribas.
MRC