COVID-19 - News digest as of 23.03.2021

1. Demand for crude oil will rise, despite emphasis on renewables

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Oil demand is expected to increase over the next decade and the fossil fuel will remain to be a crucial part of the energy mix, even as renewables draw increasing attention, reported Reuters with reference to Hess Corp Chief Executive John Hess' statement at CERAWeek. At the biggest gathering of top energy leaders, investors and politicians from around the globe, climate change and renewable fuels are taking center stage this year with oil companies trying to reorient their portfolios as the fossil fuel industry reels from the coronavirus pandemic, which destroyed fuel demand and caused the loss of thousands of jobs.


MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- As the winter storms hit the US Gulf Coast, Wood Mackenzie estimated that 45% of US paraxylene (PX) capacity had been affected, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

However, it has since come to light that 73% of US capacity was impacted by the severe weather, with INEOS Texas City declaring force majeure the week of the storms. All PX assets affected by the storms are either fully integrated into refining systems or embedded within refinery complexes, many of which were shut down or reduced due to weather impacts.

As of mid-March, all US refineries associated with PX production have started to ramp up operations across major processing units, according to Genscape. Despite this, reports circulate of paraxylene asset restarts running into delays even after other units within the refinery have moved towards normal output levels.

With major PX supply outages in the region, PX prices are expected to rise again in April. April’s forecast increase follows last month’s settlement, which was the largest increase for the US PX contract price in a single month since September 2018.

On the PTA front, the only producer that declared force majeure was INEOS Cooper River. However, this situation was not a direct consequence of the winter storms, but rather an indirect effect of being unable to source PX supply from their Texas City subsidiary. We continue to monitor the overall effect that the PX supply shortage in the Gulf Coast will have on PTA producers in other parts of the US and Mexico.

As per MRC, in line with US olefins capacity, over 80% of US polyolefins capacity was downed by the recent winter storm. There remains a considerable amount of capacity offline or in the early stages of restarting a full month later. This is partly due to the limited feedstock availability for olefins monomer, comonomer, and additives in the region.

As per MRC, more than 80% of US olefins capacity was immediately offline following the peak of extreme weather conditions in mid-February. During that time, Wood Mackenzie noted it could take weeks to recover given that disruptions across the value chain would lead to a staggered and complex restart, setting the stage for volatility in supply and prices amid stronger demand. As of mid-March, the US olefins industry has yet to regain its footing with only 60% of capacity back in operation, according to data from Genscape, a Wood Mackenzie company. Several facilities in both the Houston and Corpus Christi metropolitan areas remain shut. Those further west appear to be experiencing longer outages, likely due to encountering relatively colder temperatures during the winter storm.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Russia's output of chemical products rose in February 2021 by 5.3% year on year. Thus, production of basic chemicals increased year on year by 7.5% in the first two months of 2021, according to Rosstat's data.

According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, mineral fertilizers accounted for the greatest increase in the January-February output.

Production of benzene dropped to 113,000 tonnes in February 2021, compared to 120,000 tonnes a month earlier. Overall output of this product reached 241,000 tonnes over the stated period, down by 7.5% year on year.

February production of sodium hydroxide (caustic soda) was 98,400 tonnes (100% of the basic substance) versus 113,000 tonnes a month earlier. Overall output of caustic soda totalled 211,400 tonnes in the first two months of 2021, down by 4.6% year on year.

2,098,000 tonnes of mineral fertilizers (in terms of 100% nutrients) were produced in February 2021 versus 2,318,000 tonnes a month earlier. Overall, Russian plants produced slightly over 4,416,000 tonnes of fertilizers in January-February 2021, up by 15.4% year on year.

Last month's production of polymers in primary form was 861,000 tonnes versus 196,000 tonnes in January. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 1,770,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 8.4% year on year.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The collaboration between BASF, the world’s largest chemical company, and OMV, the international, integrated oil, gas and chemical company headquartered in Vienna, has reached a new milestone with the commissioning of OMV's new isobutene (ISO C4) plant at the Burghausen site, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The ISO C4 plant is based on technology developed jointly by the two companies. The plant’s production capacity is 60,000 t/a.

The plant’s exceptional energy efficiency saves 20,000 metric tons of CO2 emissions per year. Up to 80% of the heating energy required for the new process can be met by thermal discharge from an existing associated facility thanks to a heat integration approach.

The new unit for the production of high-purity isobutene, which does not need chemical conversion of isobutene, has been integrated into the existing metathesis plant at OMV’s Burghausen site.The isobutene produced here complements OMV’s existing product portfolio and will be used for manufacturing glues, grease and other chemicals such as antioxidants, as well as in the production of vitamin C.

Investment volume of this largescale project including auxiliary facilities was EUR64 mn. Construction on the plant had started in the summer of 2019. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, the project was successfully realized with the implementation of a customized hygiene and safety concept.

“The new ISO C4 plant illustrates OMV’s innovative strength. It marks another step in implementing our chemicals strategy and safeguards the Burghausen site’s long-term future. The technology, jointly developed with our partner BASF, and the global patent are set to unlock new markets and customer segments for us. The project team has done an outstanding job. The first product deliveries have already been completed and they have met and even exceeded the expectations of everyone involved,” said Wolfram Krenn, OMV Senior Vice President Refining & Petchem Assets Europe.

“As a global leader for process catalysts, BASF serves also as a development partner for our customers. We are proud to support OMV in becoming even more successful. Having demonstrated the performance in OMV’s new ISO C4 plant, the new process will now be available to third parties,” said Detlef Ruff, Senior Vice President, Process Catalysts at BASF.

As MRC informed earlier, OMV (Vienna, Austria) says it is investing EUR40 million (USD48 million) to expand and modernize a steam cracker and associated units at its refining and petrochemicals complex at Burghausen, Germany. The upgrade will increase the site’s ethylene and propylene production capacity by 50,000 metric tons/year. Following a planned turnaround of the refinery, the revamped cracker and petchem units are expected to start operations in the third quarter of 2022. Initial groundwork is already underway ahead of the upgrade.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- U.S. air travel fell significantly in 2020 because of reduced travel in response to the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects total U.S. passenger air travel demand will return to 2019 levels by 2025, but passenger travel jet fuel consumption will not return to 2019 levels until nearly 2030. Increasing air travel efficiency means that increasing air travel does not necessarily result in similar changes in jet fuel consumption.

The energy efficiency of passenger air travel depends on both operational efficiency (how many passengers, as opposed to empty seats, are on a flight) as well as aircraft fuel efficiency. In 2019, 85% of the seats on domestic flights and 83% of seats on international flights were filled, according to U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics data. In 2020, those percentages—known as load factors—fell because of mismatches in seat supply and demand as well as some airlines’ seating restrictions to allow passengers to distance from each other. EIA projects that load factors will increase in the near term as airlines adjust their capacity to more closely align with demand and as they remove seating restrictions.

In 2020, many planes—primarily older planes—went unused for much of the year. These planes may not return to service because of their age or because they were converted to dedicated freighters to offset the loss in passenger aircraft belly freight capacity. EIA projects that newer, more efficient aircraft will replace these retired and converted aircraft, further accelerating improvement in passenger aircraft efficiency. Passenger travel accounted for an estimated 87% of U.S. commercial jet fuel consumption in 2019 and 83% of commercial jet fuel consumption in 2020.

As per MRC, US renewable fuel credits hit fresh multi-year highs this week, while an oil refining trade group urged the Biden administration to use its authority to help stabilize the market. Prices for so-called Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs, have climbed all year as costs for feedstocks such as soybean oil increase and as market participants bet on reduced exemptions granted to oil refiners that would waive them from US biofuel blending requirements.

As MRC informed earlier, in January 2021, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted three waivers to oil refiners that exempt them from US biofuel blending obligations, a last-minute move before President Donald Trump left office. The agency granted two waivers for the 2019 compliance year and one waiver for the 2018 compliance year. The announcement followed four years of controversy around the waiver program under the Trump administration, but left many questions unresolved. Some 30 waiver requests remain outstanding for 2019 and 15 for 2020, which the incoming administration of Joe Biden will need to deal with.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC