April prices of Russian PVC to rise more significantly than in March

MOSCOW (MRC) -- There has been a shortage of suspension polyvinyl chloride (SPVC) in the world since the end of last year, prices are breaking new historical records. The Russian market also does not stand aside from the global trends, producers intend to achieve a further rise in April prices, and in some cases, a price increase of Rb10,000/tonne and higher is being discussed, according to ICIS-MRC Price report.

In March, PVC prices grew again in all regions of the world due to the shortage. And producers announced a further price increase for April shipments, as demand remained strong, and supply was still insufficient. And although Russian producers are not going to raise their export sales, despite more attractive prices in foreign markets in comparison with the domestic one, domestic prices are still being pulled up to the level of the export parity. Russian producers intend to achieve prices of more than Rb130,000/tonne for April shipments of some SPVC grades.

Russian converters still did not have import alternative for prompt shipments, but many converters were not ready to accept new price records either. Some of them even did not even rule out a pause in resin purchases if they are not able to agree with end consumers on new prices for finished products.

The rise in PVC prices in Russia has been continuing since last summer, and many converters were very late in transferring new prices of material onto their finished products. And this is a key factor in negotiations over April deliveries.

Russian producers said in April that Chinese manufacturers had an attractive level of export prices. Offer prices for container shipments started from USD1,260/tonne DAP Moscow, or given all taxes, it was about Rb122,000/tonne, including VAT and delivery, for resin with K=65. But there was one nuance - given the latest difficulties in logistics, the resin will reach the consumer no earlier than mid-May.

This year's export sales of Russian SPVC are comparable to the level of 2020. Although some producers do not rule out an increase in export shipments in case of weaker demand in April from the domestic market due to new price levels.

Discussions on prices for April shipments of Russian PVC began in late March, but some producers postponed the start of negotiations several times. Last week, deals for Russian resin with K64/67 were negotiated in the range of Rb121,500-130,000/tonne CPT Moscow, including VAT, for quantities of up to 500 tonnes, versus Rb116,000-120,000/tonne CPT Moscow, including VAT, in March. Deals for resin with K=70 started from Rb130,000/tonne CPT Moscow, including VAT.
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COVID-19 - News digest as of 05.04.2021

1. ExxonMobil may post first profit in five quarters on better results across its businesses

MOSCOW (MRC) -- ExxonMobil Corp, US largest private petrochemical company, could post its first profit in five quarters on the back of improved results across its businesses, with higher oil and gas prices providing a lift of as much as USD2.7 billion, offset by costs from a February deep freeze, reported Reuters. Last year, the company posted consecutive quarterly losses as falling oil prices and refining margins triggered write downs. It slashed operating expenses last year and analysts had forecast a per share profit of 54 cents, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.



MRC

Trinseo raises April PS, ABS and SAN prices in Europe

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Trinseo, a global materials company and manufacturer of plastics, latex binders, and synthetic rubber, and its affiliate companies in Europe, have announced a price increase for all polystyrene (PS), acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and acrylonitrile-styrene copolymer (SAN) in Europe, according to the company's press release.

Effective April 1, 2021, or as existing contract terms allow, the contract and spot prices for the products listed below rose as follows:

- STYRON general purpose polystyrene grades (GPPS) -- by EUR330 per metric ton;
- STYRON and STYRON A-Tech and STYRON X- Tech and STYRON C- Tech high impact polystyrene grades (HIPS) - by EUR330 per metric ton;
- MAGNUM ABS resins - by EUR300 per metric ton;
- TYRIL SAN resins - by EUR350 per metric ton.

As MRC informed before, Trinseo last raised its prices for all PS and ABS on March 1 2021, as stated below:

- STYRON GPPS -- by EUR5200 per metric ton;
- STYRON and STYRON A-Tech and STYRON X- Tech and STYRON C- Tech HIPS - by EUR520 per metric ton;
- MAGNUM ABS resins - by EUR430 per metric ton.

According to ICIS-MRC Price report, prices of Russian PS grew significantly in April an broke the next historical records. All domestic producers announced an increase in PS prices last week. Such an abnormal price rise became critical for many small-sized converters.

Trinseo is a global materials company and manufacturer of plastics, latex and rubber. Trinseo's technology is used by customers in industries such as home appliances, automotive, building & construction, carpet, consumer electronics, consumer goods, electrical & lighting, medical, packaging, paper & paperboard, rubber goods and tires. Formerly known as Styron, Trinseo completed its renaming process in 1Q 2015. Trinseo had approximately USD3.0 billion in net sales in 2020, with 17 manufacturing sites around the world, and approximately 2,600 employees.
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Global energy trader eyes Russian expansion, predicts steady crude oil prices

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Global energy trader Gunvor Group is keen to expand its oil dealings in Russia, Chief Executive Torbjorn Tornqvist told Reuters, and sees oil prices staying rangebound over the next few months as the coronavirus pandemic weighs on demand.

“We want to do more in Russia. We are getting more oil there,” Tornqvist said in an interview on Tuesday, without detailing plans.

According to traders, Gunvor will be the largest buyer of Russian Urals from state-firm Rosneft out of the country’s two Baltic ports in April.

Rosneft has been trying to woo traders to invest in its massive Vostok Oil Project in the Arctic. Rival trading firm Trafigura bought a 10% stake in the project last year.

Geneva-based Gunvor’s beginnings were Russia-focused until 2014 when its co-founder Russian businessman Gennady Timchenko was put under sanctions by the US. Treasury that considered him a close ally to President Vladimir Putin. At that point, Gunvor pivoted away from Russia, sold most of its assets and grew into a global business, including expansion into the United States. Russian trading accounted for 5% of its traded volumes in 2020.

Tornqvist said that 2020 was one of the best years for the firm from the trading perspective following a strong performance in 2019 after a difficult 2018 and a company reorganisation. He added that the company had a strong start in 2021 between the extreme cold spells in Asia and in the southern United States that saw prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG), power and natural gas skyrocket.

European refiners still need to contend with low margins and weak demand due to strict COVID-19 lockdowns aimed at curbing a third wave of contagions.

Tornqvist sees oil prices holding rangebound over the next months. Brent oil futures are trading in the low USD60s a barrel . “Stock draws are not going as fast as anticipated and demand is not fully back. Europe is going into another uncertain situation,” he said.

Gunvor mothballed its refinery at Antwerp, Belgium, but still runs two others, at Ingolstadt in Germany and in the Netherlands’ Rotterdam oil hub. The German refinery will undergo a turnaround in 2023 to boost efficiency and cut emissions.

As MRC informed earlier, COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
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Gasoline demand in the USA exceeds last year levels for first time in 2021

MOSCOW (MRC) --Gasoline sales in the United States have moved year on year into positive territory for the first time - on the one-year anniversary of the first major declines that resulted from COVID-induced stay at home orders, reported Reuters.

However, demand still trails pre-pandemic levels by a considerable margin, according to the latest data from Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) by IHS Markit.

US gasoline same-store sales in gallons for the week ending March 20, 2021 were 10.1% higher than 2020, according to OPIS Demand, a weekly survey of more than 25,000 fuel stations nationwide.* Nevertheless, same-store gasoline sales were still 16% below pre-pandemic levels.

Prior to the week ending March 20, 2021, gasoline volumes had mostly hovered in the range of 15% to 18% below prior-year levels since the start of 2021. The main exception was the week ending February 20, which saw a year-on-year decline of 22.4% due to impacts from Winter Storm Uri.

Retail gasoline sales volumes moving into positive territory compared to prior-year numbers for the week ending March 20 are not due to a major increase in demand but more reflect the massive declines that were seen at the pump during the same period last year. The week ending March 21, 2020 saw volumes trail 2019 levels by 23.6%, the first week in a four-week stretch that saw weekly U.S. gasoline sales volumes plummet to levels not seen since the Nixon Administration was in office in the early 1970s, culminating with volumes 47.5% behind prior-year levels the week ending April 11.

The extent of the current rebound varies by region.

There is optimism that additional “pent up” demand could be released this summer, with the Biden Administration announcing that every adult in the U.S. will be eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine no later than May 1.

It is possible that gasoline demand could come close to or even surpass pre-pandemic levels at times. But still to be determined are the lasting impacts to work, lifestyle and consumer habits.

As MRC informed before, Kuwait's Oil Minister Oil Mohammad Abdulatif al-Fares expressed "cautious optimism" that the global oil demand will improve as COVID-19 vaccination programs gather pace and industrial output recovers.

We remind that Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 1.2% in March on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, following a 1.0% increase in February. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 5.5% in March. The unadjusted data show a 1.2% gain in March following a 0.9% gain in February, ACC said. The diffusion index rebounded to 82% in March, well above the long-term average of 58%.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.
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