MOSCOW (MRC) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its estimate of Russia's GDP growth in 2021 to 3.8% from 3% it expected in January and 2.8% it forecast last October, reported Interfax.
The world economy, according to the IMF, will grow by 6% this year (in January the rise was estimated at 5.5%, in October 2020 - at 5.2%), according to the World Economic Outlook: Managing Divergent Recoveries. released by the IMF on Tuesday.
The IMF estimate is now somewhat at odds with the official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2021 - 3.3%, which was made back in September. At the same time, the head of the ministry, Maxim Reshetnikov, last week announced a slight revision of this forecast downward against the background of a smaller drop in GDP in 2020 than expected (the GDP of the Russian Federation in 2020 fell by 3% against the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of 3.9%, so the 2020 base year will be higher than the ministry laid down in September with the forecast for 2021).
The IMF's expectations for the growth of the Russian economy in 2022 are also higher than the current forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development - 3.8% versus 3.4%.
According to the current forecast of the Central Bank, Russia's GDP growth in 2021 will be in the range of 3-4%, in 2022 - in the range of 2.5-3.5%.
The consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Interfax at the end of March for GDP growth for 2021 is 2.9%. There are more significant discrepancies between economists and official forecasts for GDP dynamics in 2022 - analysts expect the growth of the Russian economy to slow down to 2.2%.
As reported earlier, based on the January forecast of the IMF, by the end of 2022, the Russian economy will grow by 3.2% higher than in the pre-crisis 2019, and based on the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development - by about 2.7%. The IMF raised its forecast for global GDP growth in 2021 by 0.3% - to 5.5%.
MRC