COVID-19 - News digest as of 15.04.2021

1. China starts rebuilding oil stockpiles in early 2021

MOSCOW (MRC) -- China resumed storing crude oil in the first two months of the year with almost 1MM bpd being added to inventories in January and February, rebuilding stockpiles after a rare drawdown toward the end of last year, reported Reuters. About 920,000 bpd were directed to inventories in the first two months of the year, according to calculations based on official data. The build in inventories comes as refineries make use of new import permits for 2021, after the coronavirus pandemic and a dispute between exporters caused widespread market ructions last year. China doesn't disclose the volumes of crude flowing into strategic and commercial stockpiles. But an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of crude processed from the total amount of crude available from imports and domestic output.


MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures ticked lower during mid-morning in Asia April 15 on profit-taking, after a bullish report from the US' Energy Information Administration sent prices hurtling nearly 5% higher overnight, while an improved demand forecast from the International Energy Agency provided a further boost to sentiment, reported S&P Global.

At 10:43 am Singapore time (0243 GMT), the ICE Brent June slipped 3 cents/b (0.04%) lower than the April 13 settle at USD66.55/b, while the May NYMEX light sweet crude contract was down 10 cents/b (0.16%) at USD63.05/b.

Prices ticked lower this morning as investors locked in profits after a meteoric rally overnight, which propelled the Brent and NYMEX light sweet crude markers to settle 4.57% and 4.94% higher at USD66.58/b and USD63.15/b, respectively.

The sharp rise was driven by better-than-expected headline numbers from the April 14 EIA report, which showed a 5.89 million-barrel decline in US commercial crude inventories to 492.42 million barrels in the week ended April 9. This draw was more bullish than the 2.9 million-barrel draw forecasted by analysts in a S&P Global Platts survey, and the 3.61 million-barrel draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute on April 13.

The EIA report also showed a 310,000-barrel build in US gasoline inventories, but this build was a source of relief to the market, as it was much smaller than the 5.57 million-barrel build reported by the API. Distillate inventories also declined counter-seasonally by 2.08 million barrels.

Crucially, the report showed an improvement in EIA's implied total refined product supplied metric, a proxy for demand, which climbed 1.09 million b/d to an eight-week high of 20.33 million b/d. Implied gasoline demand jumped 1.8% to 8.94 million b/d, the strongest since August, with implied demand also registering an 8% increase to a 13-week high of 1.36 million b/d.

Meanwhile, sentiment in the market was further boosted by an upward revision to the IEA's demand outlook, a day after OPEC unveiled an improved forecast. In its April 14 report, the Paris-based agency said that 2021 global oil demand will grow 230,000 b/d faster than previously forecast, expanding 5.7 million b/d to 96.7 million b/d.

"Oil markets fundamentals look decidedly stronger," the IEA said. "The massive overhang in global oil inventories that built up during last year's COVID-19 demand shock is being worked off, vaccine campaigns are gathering pace and the global economy appears to be on a better footing," the IEA reasoned.

As MRC informed earlier, COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Advanced Petrochemical Co. announced that it has resumed operations at two plants in Jubail, Saudi Arabia after the completion of a scheduled turnaround, reported Argaam with reference to a bourse filing.

Thus, operations at the company's polypropylene (PP) plant began on 28 March, 2021, whereas operations at its propane degydranation (PDH) unit restarted on 11 April, 202. Both plants were shut for repairs on 11 March, 2021,

As per the filing, the maintenance works were implemented in line with the occupational safety and health standards, despite the COVID-19 outbreak.

There is no significant change in the costs associated with the maintenance activities, the statement added.

The relevant financial impact will likely appear on financial statements of the first two quarters of 2021, based on expected prices of feedstock and polypropylene.

As MRC wrote before, SK Advanced started up a new PP plant in Ulsan, South Korea on 23 March, 2021, and managed to produce on-specification PP at this plant in the week ending 9 April, 2021.The PP unit is a joint venture between PolyMirae and SK Advanced, using the “Spheripol” process of LyondellBasell, and have an annual output of 400,000 tons/year.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- MEGlobal has announced its Asian Contract Price (ACP) for monoethylene glycol (MEG) to be shipped in May 2021, according to the company's press release.

Thus, on 12 April, the company said ACP for MEG would be at USD830/MT CFR Asian main ports for arrival in May 2021, down by USD100/MT from the previous month.

The May 2021 ACP reflects the short term supply/demand situation in the Asian market.

As MRC reported earlier, MEGlobal announced its April ACP for MEG at USD930/MT CFR Asian main ports, up by USD140/tonne from March 2021.

MEG is one of the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene terephthalate (PET).

According to ICIS-MRC Price report, formulae prices ща Russian producers were in the range of Rb105,000-120,000/tonne CPT Moscow, including VAT, in April.

MEGlobal is a fully integrated supplier of monoethylene glycol (MEG) and diethylene glycol (DEG), collectively known as ethylene glycol (EG).
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- China resumed storing crude oil in the first two months of the year with almost 1MM bpd being added to inventories in January and February, rebuilding stockpiles after a rare drawdown toward the end of last year, reported Reuters.

About 920,000 bpd were directed to inventories in the first two months of the year, according to calculations based on official data.

The build in inventories comes as refineries make use of new import permits for 2021, after the coronavirus pandemic and a dispute between exporters caused widespread market ructions last year. China doesn't disclose the volumes of crude flowing into strategic and commercial stockpiles. But an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of crude processed from the total amount of crude available from imports and domestic output.

Refinery throughput was 114.24 million tons in the January-February period, equivalent to about 14.13 million bpd, according to data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics. This was about the same level as in December, but was up from 12.07 million bpd in the first two months of 2020, reflecting the additional refining capacity China added last year.

Domestic crude oil output was 32.08 million tons in the first two months of 2021, equivalent to about 3.89 million bpd, a gain of 0.4% from the corresponding period a year earlier. Imports for the first two months were 89.57 million tons, about 11.08 million bpd, according to customs data.

Putting imports and domestic output together gives a total of about 15.05 million bpd available to refiners in the January-February period. Given that processing was 14.13 million bpd, this leaves a gap of about 920,000 bpd that flowed into commercial and strategic stockpiles.

As MRC write previously, Russia expects the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic on the global consumption of oil and oil products may last until 2023-2024, a draft government document, seen by Reuters, showed. The global oil and liquid fuels production dropped in 2020 to 94.25 million barrels per day (bpd) from 100.61 million bpd in 2019, amid the pandemic, which led to lockdowns, halting 80% of air traffic and a quarter of road traffic at its peak and denting fuel consumption.

We remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC