COVID-19 - News digest as of 05.07.2021

1. PetroChina expects profit to increase in H1

MOSCOW (MRC) -- PetroChina said that the company is estimated to swing to profits from losses in the first half of this year amid broad demand recovery and strengthening oil prices, said the company. PetroChina made an estimated profit of 45bn-60bn yuan (USD7.3bn-9.3bn) in January-June this year after it declared a net loss of Yn30bn in the same period of 2020. Its estimated first-half 2021 profit would also be up sharply from Yn28.4bn in January-June 2019.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures were steady during mid-morning trade in Asia July 5 as the market continued to await guidance on the OPEC+ alliance's production plan for August onwards after the UAE's desire for a higher output target soured negotiations, reported S&P Global.

At 11:32 am Singapore time (0332 GMT), the ICE September Brent crude futures contract slipped 8 cents/b (0.11%) from the previous close at USD76.09/b, while the NYMEX August light sweet crude contract was down 11 cents/b (0.15%) at USD75.05/b.

The stability in the market comes as investors wait for a definitive production plan from OPEC+, which is in a quandary after sustained objections from the UAE forced the producer group to reconvene for a second time July 5 at 3 pm Vienna time (1300 GMT).

OPEC+ was set to agree on boosting collective crude output by 400,000 b/d each month from August to December and to extend its supply management agreement through the end of 2022. However, the UAE stymied the proceedings by insisting its baseline production level, from which its quota is determined, should be raised.

The UAE's baseline under the current pact, determined by its October 2018 production level, is 3.168 million b/d, but the country now claims a capacity closer to 4 million b/d. Increasing the baseline would enable the UAE to pump more crude.

Other OPEC+ members deemed this request to be unfair. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the Al-Arabiya network that the UAE was isolated in its position, and that all other members had approved the deal.

Analysts have said that failure to reach a deal that allows for an increase in production quotas would tighten an already undersupplied market. This is especially since a lack of consensus would see the alliance revert to its existing production agreement, under which output quotas would remain flat at July levels.

Analysts have also raised concerns that the UAE may leave the alliance altogether, a prospect the country had previously considered. Another scenario entails the breakdown of co-operation within the alliance itself, which could see a flood of oil entering the market.

We remind that as MRC informed earlier, Indian refiners, anticipating a lifting of US sanctions, plan to make space for the resumption of Iranian imports by reducing spot crude oil purchases in the second half of the year. The world"s third-largest oil consumer and importer halted imports from Tehran in 2019 after former US President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 accord and re-imposed sanctions on the OPEC producer over its disputed nuclear programme.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 744,130 tonnes in the first four month of 2021, up by 4% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. At the same time, PP deliveries to the Russian market were 523,900 tonnes in January-April 2021, up by 55% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased, whereas shipments of PP random copolymers decreased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- SIBUR, the largest petrochemical complex in Russia and Eastern Europe, is ready to quickly conduct an initial public offering (IPO) upon receipt of an appropriate decision of shareholders, the company is structurally ready for placement, said Finanz, citing a statement to reporters by the head of the company Dmitry Konov in sidelines of the international industrial exhibition "Innoprom".

"The company is always structurally ready both in terms of reporting, and in terms of internal preparation, and in terms of relations with bondholders and potential investors, and in terms of business organization. Therefore, if there is a decision from shareholders - we are able to quickly conduct an IPO," - he said.

At the same time, in case of an IPO, SIBUR may place its shares on the Moscow Exchange, D. Konov added.

As reported earlier, an IPO of SIBUR is unlikely to happen this year, the main shareholder of SIBUR, Leonid Mikhelsonm, said in June.

As MRC informed before, in June, 2021, the international rating agency S&P Global Ratings confirmed the long-term issuer default rating of the Russian petrochemical company SIBUR at "BBB-" with a "stable" outlook.

We remind that in April, 2021, SIBUR announced a merger with TAIF by exchanging 15% of its shares for 50% + 1 share of TAIF. The scope of the transaction includes only TAIF's petrochemical and generating companies. This merger will increase the scale of SIBUR's operations and strengthen its market leadership. SIBUR and TAIF expect to reach final terms and close the deal in the second half of 2021. TAIF together with SIBUR will invest more than Rb 1 trillion for the implementation of joint projects. In total, the companies plan to implement over 30 projects.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 744,130 tonnes in the first four month of 2021, up by 4% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. At the same time, PP deliveries to the Russian market were 523,900 tonnes in January-April 2021, up by 55% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased, whereas shipments of PP random copolymers decreased.

SIBUR manufactures and sells petrochemical products on the Russian and international markets in two business segments: olefins and polyolefins (polypropylene, polyethylene, BOPP, etc.), as well as plastics, elastomers and intermediate products (synthetic rubbers, expanded polystyrene, PET, etc.)
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- South Korea's GS Caltex aims to restart its new mixed-feed cracker at Yeosu on July 5, 2021, reported S&P Global.

The company shut this cracker on June 27, 2021, owing to a technical issue.

The new steam cracker, which came online around June 18, has the capacity to produce 750,000 mt/year of ethylene and 430,000 mt of propylene. This schedule is earlier than the initial plan of 2022.

As MRC informed before, this June, the company also started up its new high density polyethylene (HDPE) in Yeosu with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons/year that would concentrate on producing the film (TR-144, TRB-115), blow molding (5520BN or BM593), and injection (6060 or 6060UV) grades.

The company also operates 180,000 tons/year polypropylene (PP) plant at the same complex.

The project is a 50-50 joint venture between GS Energy Corp. and Chevron Corp., costing 2 trillion won (USD1.84 billion) that started construction work in 2019.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 744,130 tonnes in the first four month of 2021, up by 4% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. At the same time, PP deliveries to the Russian market were 523,900 tonnes in January-April 2021, up by 55% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased, whereas shipments of PP random copolymers decreased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- A huge explosion and fire destroyed Taiwanese-owned Ming Dih's expandable polystyrene (EPS) plant in Samut Prakan, Thailand and caused extensive damage to surrounding communities in Bang Phli district early Monday morning, reported Bangkok Post.

The explosion occurred at about 2.50am at the plant, which produces 50,000 mt/year of EPS. There were five or six warehouses in the factory compound, where 50 tonnes of chemicals were stored.

The explosion was followed by a massive fire which engulfed the entire factory and caused extensive damage to buildings and houses within in a one-kilometre radius.

More than 30 fire engines rushed to the scene. One rescuer was killed and more than 60 people injured in an overnight explosion and fire at a chemical factory that continued to send black smoke into the sky in Samut Prakan late into Monday afternoon.

Thus, rescue foundations reported one of their firefighters was killed by the fire and 12 others were injured. Fifty other people were also hurt.

The fire was initially believed to have been brought under control around dawn, but smoke continued to rise above the gutted ruins.

Ming Dih operates a 180,000 mt/year unit in Taiwan, a 100,000 mtyear unit in China and a 50,000 mtyear unit in Thailand.

As MRC informed before, Ming Dih Group expanded its EPS plant in Thailand in the third quarter of 2014. The expansion lifted the plant’s capacity by 10,000 mt/year to 50,000 mt/year.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, May EPS imports into Russia were 1,520 tonnes versus 1,060 tonnes a month earlier and 1,040 tonnes in May 2020. EPS imports into the country grew by 4% year on year in January-May 2021: from 6,300 tonnes to 6,600 tonnes. Styrochem's imports increased over the stated period by 9% year on year: from 2,700 tonnes to 2,900 tonnes. Deliveries of Chinese EPS were reduced by more than three times: from 1,610 tonnes to 470 tonnes.
MRC