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OPEC forecasts global oil demand to reach pre-pandemic level in 2022

July 16/2021

MOSCOW (MRC) -- OPEC stuck to its forecast for a strong recovery in world oil demand in the rest of 2021 and predicted oil use would rise in 2022 at similar to pre-pandemic rates, led by growth in the United States, China and India, reported Reuters.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report on Thursday that demand next year would rise by 3.4% to 99.86 million barrels per day (bpd), and would average more than 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022.

"Solid expectations exist for global economic growth in 2022," OPEC said. "These include improved containment of COVID-19, particularly in emerging and developing countries, which are forecast to spur oil demand to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2022."

The report reflects OPEC's confidence that demand will recover robustly from the pandemic, allowing the group and its allies to further ease record supply curbs made in 2020. Some analysts have said world oil demand may have peaked in 2019.

OPEC's report said 2019 demand averaged 99.98 million bpd. OPEC also maintained its prediction that demand would grow by 5.95 million bpd in 2021.

OPEC forecast oil demand in China and India would exceed pre-pandemic levels next year. It said the United States would make the biggest contribution to 2022 demand growth, although US oil use would stay just below 2019 levels.

World economic growth was expected to slow to 4.1% next year from 5.5% in 2021, still supported by government stimulus and with the outlook "depending primarily on COVID-19-related developments", OPEC said.

Oil was trading below USD74 a barrel after the OPEC report was released. The price has climbed more than 40% this year with the help of supply cuts by OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+.

As MRC informed earlier, China's crude oil imports fell 3% from January to June versus a year earlier, in the first first-half contraction since 2013, as an import quota shortage, refinery maintenance and rising global prices curbed buying. Imports totalled 40.14 million tonnes last month, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday, equivalent to 9.77 million barrels per day (bpd).

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 953,400 tonnes in the first five months of 2021, which virtually corresponded to the same figure a year earlier. High denisty polyethylene (HDPE) shipments decreased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 607,8900 tonnes in January-May 2021, up by 33% year on year. Shipments of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased, whereas deliveries of PP random copolymers decreased.


mrcplast.com
Author:Margaret Volkova
Tags:crude and gaz condensate, propylene, ethylene, India, China, USA.
Category:General News
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