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US crude production to decrease less in 2021 than previously forecast

August 11/2021

MOSCOW (MRC) -- US crude oil production is expected to fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.12 million bpd, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 210,000 bpd, reported Reuters.

Oil prices have rebounded from the historic lows seen last year, prompting some US producers to boost drilling activity. The total US rig count has more than doubled since falling to a record low in August last year.

The EIA said it expects production to be relatively flat through October before beginning to rise in November and December and throughout 2022.

For 2022, US crude production is expected to average about 11.8 million bpd, a rise of 650,000 bpd, smaller than the previous forecast for a rise of 750,000 bpd.

Output hit an all-time annual high of 12.3 million bpd in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic crushed demand and prices.

The agency said it expects US petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.58 million bpd to 19.70 million bpd in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.52 million bpd.

US gasoline consumption averaged 8.6 million bpd in the first half of 2021, up from 8.3 million bpd in the second half of 2020 but below the 9.3 million bpd in the second half of 2019, EIA said.

"Our latest estimates show that gasoline consumption in May through July was higher than we had previously expected. Growth in employment and increasing mobility have led to rising gasoline consumption so far in 2021," the agency said.

Globally, consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels is forecast to average 97.6 million bpd for all of 2021, a 5.3 million bpd increase from 2020. The EIA forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.6 million bpd in 2022 to average 101.2 million bpd.

As MRC informed earlier, BP raised Aug. 3 its 2025 oil price assumption by USD5/b to USD60/b to reflect an expected supply constraint, while promising a recovery in its own production volumes following a maintenance-related slump in the second quarter.

We remind that BP and Lukoil want to quit their Iraqi energy projects due to the current investment environment, the country's oil minister said earlier this month, as OPEC's second biggest producer faces an exodus of international oil companies that want to exit unattractive contracts. Lukoil wants to sell its stake in West Qurna 2 to Chinese companies.
Author:Margaret Volkova
Tags:crude and gaz condensate, Lukoyl, BP Plc, Iraq, China, Russia, USA.
Category:General News
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