COVID-19 - News digest as of 09.09.2021

1. SIBUR expects market growth in the petrochemicals segment in 2021-2022

MOSCOW (MRC) - SIBUR expects market growth in the oil and gas chemistry segment in 2021-2022, despite the threat of new strains of coronavirus, which will have a positive impact on the company, TASS reports, citing the words of the managing director of the company Pavel Lyakhovich as part of the VI Eastern Economic forum. "Limitations, of course, are possible anyway, because the coronavirus has not disappeared anywhere, it is constantly mutating. Unfortunately, it moves between borders rather quickly, so here, of course, the influence of it and new strains is possible on all segments. And, of course, forecasts. As usual, this is not a very rewarding business. But if some collapses do not happen, then we see that 2021-2022 will show growth for us in the segment itself, which cannot but rejoice, "said the managing director of SIBUR.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures were higher in midmorning Asia trade Sept. 9 as the market eyed a tightened supply outlook following Hurricane Ida, reported S&P Global.

At 11:08 am Singapore time (0308 GMT), ICE November Brent futures was 23 cents/b (0.32%) higher at USD72.83/b while the NYMEX October WTI contract was up 14 cents/b (0.20%) at USD69.44/b.

"Oil prices seem to be shrugging off the recent strength in dollar, suggesting that near-term focus continues to revolve around the pace of supplies' recovery from Hurricane Ida, along with the demand outlook for oil," IG Market Strategist Yeap Jun Rong told S&P Global Platts Sept. 9, adding that a delay in recovery efforts for oil production from the impact of Ida will serve to underpin prices in the near term.

Several analyst shared a similar sentiment, saying that crude oil prices gained as supply issues continued to plague the market.

US production is still struggling to recover from Hurricane Ida. The extensive damage to infrastructure and power outages mean Ida has knocked off more supply after nine days than any other storm.

After more than a week when the Category 4 storm ripped through the region, 77% of US Gulf of Mexico output remains shut, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement as of Sept 8.

Elsewhere in Libya, protesters were blocking oil exports at the ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, supporting oil prices.

"Compounding this was fears of supply disruptions in Libya. A fresh wave of protests at key oilfields and ports could reduce production as much as 800kb/d as protester shave halted operations and blocked tankers from loading as they seek the removal of key officials at the National Oil Corp," ANZ research analysts said in a note Sept. 9.

In inventory news, the US commercial crude stocks declined 2.88 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 3, the American Petroleum Institute said Sept. 8.

As informed earlier, Shell said it observed damage from Hurricane Ida to its transfer station West Delta-143 offshore facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. West Delta-143 serves as the transfer station for all production from its assets in the Mars corridor in the Mississippi Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico to onshore crude terminals. Shell said it is not yet safe to send personnel offshore to learn the full extent of the damage and estimate the effect on production.

We remind that in late August, 2021, US crude stocks dropped sharply while petroleum products supplied by refiners hit an all-time record despite the rise in coronavirus cases nationwide, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels in the week to Aug. 27 to 425.4 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3.1 million-barrel drop. Product supplied by refineries, a measure of demand, rose to 22.8 million barrels per day in the most recent week. That's a one-week record, and signals strength in consumption for diesel, gasoline and other fuels by consumers and exporters.

We also remind that US crude oil production is expected to fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.12 million bpd, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 210,000 bpd.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) - Negotiations on the prices of European polyvinyl chloride (PVC) for September supplies to the markets of the CIS countries had started last week. Despite the decline in ethylene prices in the region, European producers have rolled over August export prices for the current month, and in some cases there has even been an increase of EUR15/tonne, according to the ICIS-MRC Price Report.

September contract price of ethylene was agreed down by EUR8/tonne from the previous month, which theoretically allows to talk about an decrease of EUR4/tonne in the net cost of PVC production compared with August. But in the conditions of a serious deficit in the region and a number of planned shutdowns for repairs in August - October, European producers decided to roll over the August export prices for September shipment. In some cases, buyers reported a price increase of EUR15/tonne.

Several producers will shut down their capacities for maintenance works in August-October; it was reported about unscheduled shutdowns of some plants in line with a decrease in supplies from the United States. All these factors negatively affect the export sales of European producers.

As a result, over the past two months, some buyers have reported an almost complete lack of PVC for them from some producers in Europe. Overall, deals for September shipments of suspension polyvinyl chloride (SPVC) to the CIS markets were discussed in the range of EUR1 440-1 500/tonne FCA, whereas the previous month's deals were negotiated at EUR1 390-1 460/tonne FCA.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Russian petrochemicals giant SIBUR has recovered from the initial shock of the pandemic and is increasing its exports, mainly to Europe, thanks to surging demand for medical equipment, a senior executive told Reuters.

SIBUR, the largest petrochemicals producer in eastern Europe, is ramping up production following construction of the ZapSibNefteKhim plant in the Western Siberian city of Tobolsk and a merger with TAIF, yet to be completed.

Sergey Komyshan, executive director of SIBUR, told Reuters in comments cleared for publication on Wednesday that the company expects the ZapSib plant to produce two million tonnes of polymers, mostly polyethylene and polypropylene, this year.

The plant was launched in 2019 with annual capacity of 2.5 million tonnes of polymers. According to Komyshan, demand for petrochemicals has recovered after being hit by the pandemic.

"In the beginning, the medical sector helped a lot, (demand) for medical protective gear and packaging. They offset the losses in the areas such as carmaking and construction," he said, adding demand in the auto sector and construction was now back, too. "We saw a very robust growth, we have practically returned to normality."

The demand recovery means SIBUR is boosting its petrochemical exports to Europe. "We have more than doubled our supplies there, year on year, and we will continue to do so," Komyshan said, adding the bulk had gone to eastern Europe, Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg.

"The most pronounced rise is in Turkey where we became the second player on the propylene market," he said, without providing details. Last year, SIBUR exported 1.44 million tonnes of polyethylene and polypropylene, up from 400,553 tonnes in 2019, thanks to the ZapSib plant.

Privately-owned SIBUR has a deal to sell up to one million tonnes of polyethylene a year to China's Sinopec from ZapSib.

As MRC reported, on 23 April of this year, SIBUR announced a merger with TAIF by exchanging 15% of its shares for 50% + 1 share in TAIF. The scope of the transaction includes only TAIF's petrochemical and generating companies. This merger will increase the scale of SIBUR's operations and strengthen its market leadership. SIBUR and TAIF expect to reach final terms and close the deal in the second half of 2021. TAIF together with SIBUR will spend more than 1 trillion rubles. for the implementation of joint projects. In total, the companies plan to implement over 30 projects.

As a result of the merger, the total capacity share of the new SIBUR-TAIF group will be 100% for the production of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), 87.4% for polypropylene (PP), 80.8% for low-density polyethylene (HDPE), and for high-pressure polyethylene (LDPE) - 59.3%.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,176,860 tonnes in the first half of 2021, up by 5% year on year. Shipments of exclusively low density polyethylene (LDPE) decreased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 727,160 tonnes in the first six months of 2021, up by 31% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased. Supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.

SIBUR manufactures and sells petrochemical products on the Russian and international markets in two business segments: olefins and polyolefins (polypropylene, polyethylene, BOPP, etc.), as well as plastics, elastomers and intermediate products (synthetic rubbers, expanded polystyrene, PET, etc.)
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Imports of suspension polyvinyl chloride (SPVC) into Ukraine fell in the first eight months of 2021 by 26% year on year, totalling 18,500 tonnes. Export sales of Ukrainian PVC rose by 17% year on year partially due to record high prices in a number of regions of the world, according to MRC's DatasScope report.

Last month's SPVC imports to the Ukrainian market decreased to 2,700 tonnes from 3,100 tonnes in July, Ukrainian companies reduced their shipments of polymer from China. Overall SPVC imports reached 18,500 tonnes in January-August 2021, compared to 25,100 tonnes a year earlier. Limited export quotas of European and North American producers were the main reason for such a major fall in imports.

European producers with the share of about 86% of the total imports over the stated period were the key suppliers of resin to the Ukrainian market.

Last month, Karpatneftekhim maintained its export sales at a good level, export sales of Ukrainian resin were 13,300 tonnes versus 13,600 tonnes in July. Overall, slightly less than 129,700 tonnes of PVC were shipped for export in the first eight months of 2021, compared to 111,000 tonnes a year earlier.

MRC