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U.S. crude production to decrease more than expected after Ida

September 15/2021

MOSCOW (MRC) -- U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.08 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, noting that Hurricane Ida should force a bigger decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 160,000 bpd, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

More than 90% of crude output in offshore Gulf of Mexico was shut in late August due to the powerful storm. Several companies are still in the process of returning production to normal levels and restart plans have been slowed due to power outages and damage to some facilities.

As a result of the outage, Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production averaged 1.5 million bpd in August, down 300,000 million bpd from July, the agency said. Output in the GOM is expected to gradually come back online during September and average 1.2 million bpd for the month before returning to an average of 1.7 million bpd in fourth quarter.

The agency also said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.55 million bpd to 19.74 million bpd in 2021, a smaller increase compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.58 million bpd. For 2022, U.S. crude output is expected to increase to average about 11.72 million bpd, driven by growth in shale production.

The total oil and gas rig count is up about 94% over this time last year. Demand for 2022 is expected to rise 890,000 bpd to 20.63 million bpd, a bigger increase than the agency's previous forecast for a rise of 860,000 bpd.

Globally, an estimated 98.4 million bpd of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in August, an increase of 5.7 million bpd from August 2020 but still 4 million bpd less than in August 2019, the EIA said.

As per MRC, Oil rose on Monday, supported by concerns over shut output in the United States because of damage from Hurricane Ida, with analysts expecting prices to remain rangebound in a stable market over the coming months. Brent crude rose 55 cents, or 0.8%, to USD73.47 a barrel by 1222 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 64 cents, or 0.9%, at USD70.36. Brent has held between USD70 and USD74 a barrel over the past three weeks.

As MRC informed earlier, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, one of the largest operators in the Gulf of Mexico, declared force majeure on some oil deliveries due to damage from Hurricane Ida, which has crippled U.S. offshore oil production. More than three-quarters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico's offshore oil output remained shut following Ida. Crude buyers said the full restart of production remained unclear due to extensive damage to various facilities. The hurricane was one of the most devastating for offshore producers since back-to-back storms in 2005 cut output for months.
Author:Anna Larionova
Tags:petroleum products, crude oil, PP, PE, propylene, ethylene, neftegaz, petrochemistry.
Category:General News
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