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China oil consumption to keep growing by 2030 on robust petrochemical demand

December 28/2021

MOSCOW (MRC) -- China's oil consumption is expected to keep growing for a decade on robust chemical demand, reaching a peak of about 780 MMtpy by 2030, reported Reuters with reference to a statement of a research institute affiliated with China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) on Sunday.

Last year, the research group, called the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute (ETRI), said that China's oil demand would peak at 730 MMtpy by around 2025.

In its latest report, the ETRI said diesel fuel, gasoline and kerosene consumption are forecast to peak sometime around 2025 at about 390 MMtpy. The strong petrochemical demand will support rising consumption through to 2030.

Overall oil demand will fall after 2030 as transportation consumption declines amid the electrification of vehicles while chemical demand remains stable during the period, the ETRI said.

The ETRI also revised the peak of China's total primary energy consumption to 6.01 Btpy of standard coal by around 2030, from 5.6 Btpy by around 2035 previously.

"Coal consumption in China would enter a plateau at around 3.6-4 B tons in 2021-2030," the ETRI said, adding that the use of the dirty fossil fuel would decrease steadily in 2031-2050 as coal-fired power plants become a back-up energy source.

This follows plans from the government to reduce coal consumption in China, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, in an "orderly" manner as part of its drive to reach a peak in carbon emissions.

China's top leaders said at an agenda-setting meeting this month that the "gradual withdrawal of traditional energy sources should be based on the establishment of safe and reliable of new energy sources."

As MRC wrote previously, China's crude throughput rose 0.8% to 13.81 million b/d in October from a 17-month low in September.

We remind that the average utilisation rate at China's four state-owned refiners fell to a five-month low of 80.6% in October from 81.5% in September while independent refiners also maintained run rates at low levels due to feedstock shortage. These would likely lead the country's crude throughputs to extend the downward trend in October from the 17-month low of 13.7 million b/d, or 56.07 million mt, in September, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The four state oil companies - Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC and Sinochem - plan to process a total 7.67 million b/d of crudes in October, against their nameplate capacity of 9.52 million b/d, Platts data showed. This compared with a planned throughput of 7.7 million b/d in September. In November, the state-run refiners plan to lift throughput from the low base in October to boost gasoil and gasoline supplies for meeting domestic demand, refining sources said.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,047,100 tonnes in the first ten months of 2021, up by 17% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 1,226,530 tonnes in January-October 2021, up by 26% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymers (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of injection moulding stat-copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) decreased significantly.
Author:Margaret Volkova
Tags:PP, PE, crude and gaz condensate, propylene, ethylene, petrochemistry, CNPC, PetroChina, Sinochem, China.
Category:General News
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