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US crude exports plummet nearly 1.2 million b/d on week, four-week-average lowest since June

November 11/2020

MOSCOW (MRC) -- US crude exports for the week ended on Oct. 30 fell by 1.195 million b/d to 2.265 million b/d, the biggest week-on-week fall since Jan. 3, when exports were reported to have fallen nearly 1.4 million b/d from the week prior, reported S&P Global with reference to the US Energy Information Administration Nov. 4.

Not only were exports significantly lower on the week, but crude exports four-week moving average sunk to 2.724 million b/d, the lowest level since the period ended on Jun. 19, when the four-week moving average was at 2.713 million b/d.

Compared to the same time last year, the four-week moving average is around 700,000 b/d lower than the four-week moving average of 3.415 million b/d for the period ended on Oct. 25.

Looking ahead, S&P Global Platts Analytics expects US crude exports to remain around current levels through November, before continuing to fall in 2021 as declining US shale production results in fewer barrels being available.

Platts Analytics forecasts 2021 US production to be 1.2 million b/d lower during 2021 from 2020 levels, and 2 million b/d lower than the 2019 average. This fall in production is expected to result in weekly exports falling to around 2.1 million b/d on average through 2021.

As MRC wrote before, US exports fell to a 14-month-low over the week ended Oct. 9, and are expected to remain weak into 2021, as sources note poor demand in the export market. The US exported an average of 2.135 million b/d of crude over the weekend ended on Oct. 9, the lowest level since the week ended on August 2, 2019, when exports were reported at just 1.865 million b/d, according to weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration.

We remind that in August, 2020, US refiner Phillips 66 said it plans to reconfigure its refinery in Rodeo, California to produce renewable fuels from used cooking oil, fats, greases and soybean oils.

We also remind that US-based Phillips 66 remains open to developing another ethane cracker for its Chevron Phillips Chemical (CP Chem) joint venture, the refiner's CEO said in March 2018.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,594,510 tonnes in the first nine months of 2020, up by 1% year on year. Only high denstiy polyethylene (HDPE) shipments increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 880,130 tonnes in the nine months of 2020 (calculated using the formula: production minus exports plus imports, exluding producers" inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply increased exclusively of PP random copolymer.
Author:Margaret Volkova
Tags:PP, PE, crude and gaz condensate, PP random copolymer, propylene, HDPE, ethylene, petrochemistry, Chevron Phillips, Phillips 66, Russia, USA.
Category:General News
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