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Global crude oil demand to peak several years earlier than expected - in 2026

April 22/2021

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EV) around the world is likely to cause global oil demand to peak two years earlier than previously expected, reported Reuters with reference to Norway"s biggest independent energy consultancy Rystad.

World demand is now seen peaking at 101.6 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2026, down from a forecast made in November of a peak in 2028 at 102.2 million bpd, Rystad Energy said.

"The adoption of electrification in transport and other oil-dependent sectors is accelerating and is set to chip away at oil sooner and faster than in our previous forecast," Rystad wrote.

Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, Rystad had anticipated that peak oil demand would be reached in 2030 at 106 million bpd.

Aside from the staggering takeover of EVs, assumptions across all our scenarios see oil demand being either phased out, substituted, or recycled across a range of sectors, it said.

As MRC wrote previously, India�s obvious displeasure with restrictions on output imposed by OPEC and its allies, and its aim to diversify crude oil suppliers, may run into the harsh realities of the global market. The world�s third-biggest oil importer and consumer has told state-owned refiners to speed up the diversification of crude imports in order to cut dependence on its main source of supply, the Middle East.

We remind that earlier this month, Mammoet completed the lifting of three columns for the Guru Gobind Singh Polymer Expansion Project in Bathinda, Punjab, India. Thus, the team lifted a 1,305t ethylene fractionator, and 2 propylene fractionators weighing 1,200t and 2,490t - the second of which was lifted in two sections. The completed project is part of an expansion plan to build an integrated petrochemical manufacturing site within Guru Gobind Singh�s current refinery complex. The refiner aims to increase India�s refined hydrocarbon product capacity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC"s ScanPlast report, Russia"s estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.


mrcplast.com
Author:Margaret Volkova
Tags:Asia, Near East, Europe, PP, PE, crude and gaz condensate, PP block copolymer, homopolymer PP, propylene, LDPE, ethylene, petrochemistry, India, Russia, USA.
Category:General News
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