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U.S. crude oil production will decline more significantly in 2021 than forecast

May 13/2021

MOSCOW (MRC) -- U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 290,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.02 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, a steeper decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 270,000 bpd, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

U.S. oil producers have been gradually increasing drilling activity as oil prices have rebounded but output growth has been muted as investors pressure companies to rein in spending and focus on returns. In 2022, output is expected to rise by 820,000 bpd to 11.84 million bpd, unchanged from the EIA's estimate last month.

"Because the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains above USD55 per barrel in our forecast, we expect producers will drill and complete enough wells in the coming months to offset declines at existing wells," the agency said in a monthly forecast.

The EIA said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.39 million bpd to 19.51 million bpd in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.32 million bpd. The agency expects that gasoline consumption in the United States will average almost 9 million bpd this summer, between April and September, which is 1.2 million bpd more than last summer but almost 600,000 bpd less than summer of 2019.

For 2022, U.S. consumption is forecast to rise 1.02 million bpd to 20.53 million bpd, higher than its previous estimate for an increase of 980,000 bpd.

We remind that Marathon Petroleum, the largest US refiner, can meet its supply commitments for now but is working to find alternative ways to ship motor fuels to the eastern United States if the Colonial Pipeline shutdown is extended.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 576,270 tonnes in the first three month of 2021, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) shipments increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 410,890 tonnes in January-March 2021, up by 56% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
Author:Anna Larionova
Tags:North America, CIS, petroleum products, crude oil, PP, PE, neftegaz, petrochemistry.
Category:General News
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