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OPEC forecasts point to oil supply deficit from August to 2022 as economies recover from the pandemic

July 01/2021

MOSCOW (MRC) -- OPEC's forecasts point to an oil supply deficit in August and in the rest of 2021 as economies recover from the pandemic, suggesting the group and its allies have room to raise output at a meeting this week, reported Reuters.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is returning 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), about 2% of world output, to the market from May through July as part of a plan to ease last year's record output curbs.

OPEC+ meets on Thursday to discuss supply for later months. With oil at its highest since 2018, sources say a further boost in August will be discussed, but some producers are wary about new demand setbacks and higher Iranian supply.

OPEC's latest forecast of the demand for its crude suggests, if output levels stay the same, OPEC supply will fall short of expected demand by 1.5 million bpd in August. The shortfall widens to 2.2 million bpd in the fourth quarter.

Iran and world powers have been talking since April on reviving Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal, which would allow Iran to boost output, so far without agreement.

Tehran pumped 2.5 million bpd in May and was producing 3.8 million bpd in 2018 before the U.S. tightened sanctions, OPEC figures show. So an extra 1.3 million bpd from Iran in the next few months would give OPEC+ less room to add supply without tipping the market into surplus.

OPEC+ cut output by a record 9.7 million bpd last year as demand collapsed when the pandemic first struck. As of July, the curbs in place will stand at 5.8 million bpd.

As MRC informed earlier, Indian refiners, anticipating a lifting of US sanctions, plan to make space for the resumption of Iranian imports by reducing spot crude oil purchases in the second half of the year. The world"s third-largest oil consumer and importer halted imports from Tehran in 2019 after former US President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 accord and re-imposed sanctions on the OPEC producer over its disputed nuclear programme.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 744,130 tonnes in the first four month of 2021, up by 4% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. At the same time, PP deliveries to the Russian market were 523,900 tonnes in January-April 2021, up by 55% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased, whereas shipments of PP random copolymers decreased.


mrcplast.com
Author:Margaret Volkova
Tags:Asia, Europe, crude and gaz condensate, propylene, ethylene, India, Iran, USA.
Category:General News
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