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IEA revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2011

October 12/2011

(ICIS) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2011 by 50,000 bbl/day and by 210,000 bbl/day for 2012 because of a downward adjustment to GDP growth assumptions. Global oil demand in 2011 is now expected to rise 1.1% or by 1.0m bbl/day compared with last year to 89.2m bbl/day. In 2012, demand will rise 1.4% or by 1.3m bbl/day to reach 90.5m bbl/day.


The IEA also cited lower-than-expected third-quarter readings in the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) nations as a reason for the downward revision.
Stronger-than-expected OECD monthly submissions, primarily in Europe and the Pacific, provide some offsetting support, the Paris-headquartered international agency added.


Some of the demand boost stems from temporary factors, such as seasonal heating oil tank filling, while oil-fired power generation in Japan provides more lasting upside potential.


According to the IEAs October oil market report, global oil supply fell by 300,000 bbl/day to 88.7m bbl/day in September from August, driven lower by reduced non-OPEC output.


Non-OPEC supply fell by 300,000 bbl/day to 52.6m bbl/day in September, largely because of weather- and maintenance-related shut-ins in North America, the North Sea and Latin America, as well as unplanned outages in the Middle East, the IEA added.


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