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(ICIS) -- The gains in Asia’s olefins
market may be capped next year because of a lighter 2012 cracker turnaround
schedule and concerns over the health of the global economy, market sources said
on Friday. Around 16 crackers in the region are scheduled for maintenance in
2012 compared to 33 crackers in 2011.
Based on the nameplate capacities of these crackers, the ethylene
production loss is estimated to be at least 865,534 tonnes in 2012, down by more
than 50% from levels seen in 2011, according to ICIS.
The market outlook for the ethylene and propylene markets in 2012 is
generally bearish, particularly in the first quarter as the Lunar New Year
holidays will arrive earlier on 23 January 2012, market sources said. “January
business is basically dead. Hopefully demand will pick up in February for March
cargoes,” a regional olefins trader said.
With the exception of South Korea, crackers in Asia are being operated at
reduced rates of 80-90% this month as producers are squeezed by high feedstock
naphtha costs and the earlier sharp falls in olefins prices.
South Korean producers are still running their crackers at close to full
tilt except for SK Energy, which is operating its 190,000 tonne/year No 1
cracker in Ulsan at 70% capacity this month.
Ethylene margins of producers in
northeast Asia based on naphtha feed fell into negative territory at the end of
October, but the losses have narrowed in recent weeks partly because of a modest
recovery in ethylene, propylene and butadiene (BD) prices, according to ICIS
data.
Perspectives of development of the polymers markets, pricing
issues and other important aspects will be discussed at The Polymers
Summit-2011, which will be held in Moscow on November 30, 2011 at the
Ritz Carlton Hotel. The Summit is organized by MRC with the support of ICIS. The
main idea of the Summit is to find a "the golden mean" between producers and
converters. When producers receive exactly such margin of production, which
helps them to invest in production expansion in order to substitute polymers
imports, and the converters receive such price of feedstock that helps them to
compete imported finished products. The Summit site gives an access to the live
video of the Summit, speakers" presentations, as well as opportunities to ask
questions or make appointments to any Summit partcipant.
mrcplast.com
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